The Grafton Carnival continues on Thursday, headlined by the showpiece event, the Grafton Cup (2350m). Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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2 Burning Bell (Bet Now: $1.85) will welcome the drop in grade/depth after racing a few weeks ago in the Gai Waterhouse when outclassed on paper and was in the end, but I thought didn’t disgrace herself at all behind Wollombi, beaten a few lengths. Back to this level, she has to be rated as one of the leading chances.
Danger
4 Subuki (Bet Now: $7.50) looks to have come back in good order. Wayne Brown trained mare that resumed over 1250m at the midweeks at Canterbury where she was a despised outsider but she defied her SP and ran a ripping race in defeat, closing off well in restricted room behind Llanddwyn. Better for the run, up in trip and back in grade/depth, hard to beat.
Long Shot
6 Sebrenco (Bet Now: $6.00) rates highly. Just under three weeks between runs for Tracey Bartley since racing in a solid race at Rosehill over 1300m on testing ground and she kept finding the line without threatening talented filly Emmadella. Back miles in grade/depth, firmer footing, she’s a leading contender.
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2 Night Fighter (Bet Now: $4.80) on top for me but not really a race I want to get involved in. Sue Grills trained gelding that has been strong in three runs back from a spell, the latest over 1400m here in the Guineas Prelude where he was quite good in defeat behind Change The Date, finishing third, but had his chance. Looks well placed against these, strong late…hard to beat.
Danger
3 Cool Man (Bet Now: $4.50) hasn’t done much wrong in two career outings for Brett Dodson and rates highly. Gave them a start and a beating when winning on debut at Murwillumbah before going to Tamworth where he got too far back in the run but his finale was more than sound in defeat behind Wanda River. Like him up to 1400m ad hopefully can settle closer.
Long Shot
12 Maybe Smart (Bet Now: $19.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. This mare has been pretty good in two runs back from a spell, resuming with a solid effort at Taree before going to Grafton where she got off the speed and kept finding the line in a decent effort behind Tsunoda. Hard fit, likes the track and maps ideally.
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13 Sparkingly (Bet Now: $9.50) is a short course specialist and looks suited here I feel for Damien Lane. She was racing well without winning but the run of outs came to an end over 900m at Scone last time where she got a nice run in transit just off the speed before being presented clear air and she let down with purpose late to win and win well. Hard to beat against these.
Danger
Back to 1000m I find very interesting with 2 Slippin Jimmy (Bet Now: $2.80) but you do have to respect David Vandyke when he places horses. This guys comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since June 5 at Doomben over 1350m when near the speed throughout and tried hard but had to settle for a narrow second to Wahine Galaxy. Good racing style, consistent and should be strong late.
Long Shot
11 Poita (Bet Now: $35.00) is a knockout hope. He is a track/distance winner and was good in defeat in this race last year. He ran at Tamworth last time where I liked him at odds but he was in restricted room and couldn’t quite let down. I think drawn out, he’ll get room to move and he can really launch at them late.
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7 Power Ace (Bet Now: $4.80), I think, may well have a bit on these. Tony Gollan trained filly that is on debut. She was fair in a trial in February before having a break. She then trialled again last week at Deagon and gee she moved well to win the trial, with something in hand. Maps to be on speed and the stable don’t bring them this way for nothing.
Danger
2 Superstitious (Bet Now: $1.75) is a son of Snitzel for Matty Dunn that resumes. This guy was formerly with Ryan/Alexiou but is now with Dunn so first up here, you’d like to think there is clear intent. His form when trained by Ryan/Alexiou was very good and his trial win to get ready for the return was very good.
Long Shot
10 Bun In The Oven (Bet Now: $34.00) hasn’t been too bad in three runs back from a spell and rates highly for mine. This mare has race over 1000m in all runs this prep, all heavy tracks too. Latest was over 1000m at Ballina when wide no cover and doing work but just tired late in the piece behind Outback Pat. Can pinch top four with a better run in transit.
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10 Star Ambition (Bet Now: $2.00) looks a speedy type for Toby Edmonds and I think he can make it 2/2 to start his career. He debuted at the Sunny Coast where he led throughout and credit to him, he was there to be run down but he found and was too good in the run to the line. Good racing style, leading camp, hard to beat.
Danger
7 Prorata (Bet Now:
$SP.00) has been kept on ice for Greg Hickman since a dominant win on Heavy ground at Wagga. He lapped up the conditions and was quite dominant late in the piece, which followed an encouraging debut at Warwick Farm. Tick over trial was good and he looks talented enough to take this race out.
Long Shot
6 Head Case (Bet Now: $14.00) looks to have been set for the race. Tony Newing trained youngster that resumed at the Sunny Coast on a bottomless deck where he struggled in the conditions, like most did for the few races that were run at the meeting. Fitter, up in trip, firmer deck, I think he’s a big improver.
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12 Self Indulgent (Bet Now: $6.50) looks the one to beat, and clearly. Matty Dunn trained mare that resumed in a strong Class 6 at Doomben where she got back in the run and while she never threatened to win, she kept finding the line and was good in defeat behind a proper Saturday class sprinter, Richon. Fitter, maps perfect, good upside…keen.
Danger
8 Deep Rouge (Bet Now: $12.00) is an absolute beauty for Wayne Brown. She ran over 1000m at Tamworth last time out where she just got too far back in the run but really liked the way she finished her race off in defeat when fourth. She’ll be spotting them a start but she should be quite strong at the end and is a knockout hope.
Long Shot
3 Just In Reach (Bet Now:
$SP.00) has a tricky gate to overcome but he looks to be sneaky flying for Sue Grills. I am forgiving of his run in the Ramornie Prelude last time, where he just got too far back in the run and while he was never threatening, he did make up ground and was good in defeat. If he can get a drag into the race, he can launch at them late.
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4 Thalassophile (Bet Now: $6.50) looks a fab each way gamble for mine. Chris Waller trained mare that has been in work a little while but she is a mare that is holding her form really well at present. She ran in the Tatts Crown on Tiara Day at Eagle Farm and kept finding the line in defeat in a good effort behind Princess Rhaenys. 2350m should be fine and given her record, I reckon she’s well in at the weights.
Danger
I have been a fan of 8 Point King (Bet Now:
$SP.00) since racing in Ireland and now he’s down under, I am keen to see him. He made his Australian debut over 2000m at Randwick a few weeks ago and just looked in need of the run behind Golden Path. Like him up to 2400m, right down in the weights and if he’s fit, he’s dangerous.
Long Shot
11 Holstein (Bet Now: $26.00) is unknown at the trip but on a firmer deck, I think he can run an improved race. Strong winner at Canterbury two back before racing at Rosehill where the track was too wet and he couldn’t pick his feet up late in the piece behind Amberite. If the trip is okay, his best is more than good enough.
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2 Immoral (Bet Now: $8.50) is suited at 1000m and does race well with fresh legs. Tony Gollan trained gelding that hasn’t raced since May 25 at Doomben when back near last in the run, was wide, and made up some ground but was never really a factor behind My Snow Queen. Good set up into this I feel and the depth, as a whole, isn’t overly deep. Hard to beat.
Danger
5 Compelling Truth (Bet Now: $1.70) is absolutely humming for Mack Griffith and commands respect. He has won three on the bounce, all wins coming at Dubbo. Two of them were at 1000m before he stretched his brilliance to 1100m and was just too good from on speed. Good test here, but I think he has to be rated as a key chance.
Long Shot
7 Rising (Bet Now: $35.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Brett Cavanough. He ran over 1200m at Tamworth last time out where he did a bit too much work on speed and just felt the pinch late in the piece behind The Dramatist. Back to 1000m and I think with a more patient steer, he’s dangerous at odds.
BEST BET: Race Four Number 7 Power Ace
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Immoral
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 4 Thalassophile
Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 6, 7, 10
Leg Two: 12
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 8, 11
Leg Four: 2
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