We’ve been working our way through Shuffle Up season for the fresh fantasy football year, and now we’re up to the big position, the running backs. If you could get an answer key before the season at just one position, this is the one you’d request.
Alas, there’s no answer key to be had. It’s the position most likely to be hit by injuries, and also the position most likely to be filled with useful players (even occasional stars) completely out of nowhere. We talked in the receiver section about how a Puka Nacua story this year is highly unlikely. But the Kyren Williams story could easily repeat somewhere. The running back paths to relevance aren’t nearly as complicated; if we can solve the volume, we’re most of the way there.
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Most of my roster builds are going to focus on one major runner; you can call it an Anchor RB or a Hero RB; I’m not caught up on labels. This player will likely be a first or second-round pick for me, but that’s not an internal mandate. I’ll try to stay flexible on draft day and could end up taking my anchor in Round 3 or Round 4 in the right situation.
After that, I’ll look to gradually acquire depth as it comes to me, understanding that with most NFL clubs currently operating something resembling a backfield platoon, the pool of useful fantasy backs is deeper than it’s ever been.
$45 Christian McCaffrey
$40 Breece Hall
$39 Bijan Robinson
$38 Jonathan Taylor
$35 Jahmyr Gibbs
$33 Saquon Barkley
$31 Derrick Henry
$29 Travis Etienne
$29 Kyren Williams
It’s a good thing the Niners have Trent Williams at left tackle because the rest of the offensive line is suspect entering training camp. McCaffrey bagged his first rushing title last year, but I suspect the club will look to shift back to the style of usage he enjoyed earlier in his career, heavily steering into his receiving chops and trying to make sure he’s tackled by the lighter defenders on the other side, not the thick interior players. Still, I’ll label McCaffrey the auto-pick at No. 1, tied to Kyle Shanahan schemes, a team likely to win double-digit games, and staring at tons of goal-line equity.
Taylor produced at an elite level in the second half of 2023, and there’s a reasonable chance he could outscore all the backs this fall. Shane Steichen was obviously a home-run hire for the Colts; Indianapolis was 10th in scoring (albeit that finish outkicked other efficiency metrics) despite starting QB Anthony Richardson missing most of the year. Sure, some of the rushing goodies will go to Richardson and not Taylor, but Taylor is still in a good age pocket (he turned 25 in January) and the Colts have a top-10 offensive line on everyone’s clipboard. I’ll sign off on a Taylor pick in Round 1, and he’s a notable steal if you can land him anywhere in Round 2.
Hall finished sixth in cumulative points last year (using a half-point PPR system) and was ninth in points per game — a nifty comeback from a torn ACL. Now, he steps into an offense that’s notably improved at quarterback and on the offensive line. It’s likely that Hall’s receiving volume will decrease with Aaron Rodgers taking over. However, the overall offensive octane goes up with Rodgers playing, as the Jets will visit the red zone much more often. Hall has been the second back off the board in early Yahoo drafts, and that feels justified to me.
Henry is never going to be much as a receiver, but it’s wise to remember that Gus Edwards scored 13 times for the Ravens last year, and Henry is obviously a much more powerful runner than Edwards is. For all of Lamar Jackson’s athleticism and rushing chops, the Ravens don’t prefer to steer him goal-line rushes, perhaps to keep him healthy. Henry is my favorite to lead the league in rushing touchdowns, and even a silly total between 16-20 wouldn’t surprise me. Henry’s managed double-digit scores in six straight seasons, and now he’s tied to the best offense of his career.
$26 Isiah Pacheco
$25 Rachaad White
$25 De’Von Achane
$23 Josh Jacobs
$22 James Cook
$21 Joe Mixon
$19 Kenneth Walker
$18 Zamir White
If you include the playoffs, Pacheco scored eight touchdowns in his final eight games of 2023, and he also had 31 receptions over that period. All of his per-opportunity metrics fell in his second season, but just being under the umbrella of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes offers Pacheco a safe floor.
Achane is a speed merchant. Though you typically think of him scoring from distance, Miami used him more inside the 10-yard line than I remembered. Eight of Achane’s 11 touchdowns came in this area, including five scores from the 4-yard line and in. Although Miami’s backfield is crowded with capable runners, it’s likely this team will continue to run at the goal line this year with volume to go around. Keep in mind that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both just 5-foot-10, and there isn’t a dynamic tight end on the roster. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa has a mere 144 rushing yards (and zero rushing touchdowns) over the last two years.
The Raiders pivoted to a running-and-defense model down the stretch, and White was driving much of that success. He ranked first in rushing attempts (tied with Najee Harris), third in rushing yards and eighth in half-point PPR scoring over that period. Alexander Mattison joins the backfield but he looks like a clear backup, not a threat to a starting job. White isn’t dynamic in the passing game but he’s not a zero there, either; he had five catches against the Colts in December. He’s one of my preferred bargain targets, and you can likely land him later in your draft than my rankings would suggest.
$17 Alvin Kamara
$16 Aaron Jones
$16 David Montgomery
$15 Rhamondre Stevenson
$15 James Conner
$13 Najee Harris
$12 Raheem Mostert
$12 D’Andre Swift
$12 Zack Moss
$11 Tony Pollard
$11 Devin Singletary
$10 Jaylen Warren
$10 Brian Robinson
$10 Tyjae Spears
$10 Austin Ekeler
The bottomless cup of receptions kept Kamara’s value afloat, but his efficiency metrics are moving in the wrong direction and he steps into a concerning age-29 season. The Saints rarely steer short-yardage touchdowns to Kamara, and I suspect Kendre Miller is ready to be a contributor this year after a rookie year that was mostly a washout. You never say never to any player with talent, but it’s unlikely Kamara will be on any of my rosters.
Singletary was a surprise top 20 back last year, sparked by an excellent second half; maybe he can turn the trick again with the Giants. Singletary and HC Brian Daboll worked together during their Buffalo days, and the depth chart after Singletary is paper thin (Eric Gray was an ineffective rookie, while new rookie Tyrone Tracy was mostly a receiver in college). So long as Singletary holds an affordable RB30 tag in Yahoo, I’ll continue to target him proactively.
Harris probably won’t be as exciting or explosive as Warren, but Harris still profiles as the starter and the back headed for heavier usage. Pittsburgh upgraded the offensive line at the draft and new OC Arthur Smith wants to run the ball in the ground. Even with Harris heading into a lame-duck season (his fifth-year option wasn’t picked up), the Steelers are likely to give him reliable volume on a weekly basis.
$9 Javonte Williams
$9 Gus Edwards
$9 Ezekiel Elliott
$8 Jonathon Brooks
$8 Nick Chubb
$8 Jerome Ford
$6 Zach Charbonnet
$6 Chase Brown
$5 Trey Benson
$5 Blake Corum
$4 Chuba Hubbard
$4 Antonio Gibson
$4 Kendre Miller
Elliott’s explosiveness has fallen off considerably, but he’s maintained a strong conversion ratio when asked to handle short-yardage work. It’s conceivable that Elliott could stumble for fewer than four yards a carry and still flirt with RB2 value because the Cowboys lean on him around the goal line. Sometimes, it’s a matter of following the workload and not getting tripped up by the talent level.
We think of Sean McVay as a coach who often employs a bell cow back, but the best coaches also tend to work talent-to-scheme — not the other way around. When the Rams spent a proactive pick on Blake Corum, it likely signaled that they don’t want to push Kyren Williams to the same heavy workload he saw last year. Corum is thicker than Williams and also a little faster; if I’m going to attack the Rams backfield, I prefer Corum as a speculative pick as opposed to Williams as a pricy, expectant one.
$3 Tyler Allgeier
$3 Rico Dowdle
$3 Ty Chandler
$3 Jaleel McLaughlin
$3 Khalil Herbert
$3 MarShawn Lloyd
$3 J.K. Dobbins
$2 Roschon Johnson
$2 Ray Davis
$2 Elijah Mitchell
$2 Audric Estime
$2 Miles Sanders
$2 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
$2 Kimani Vidal
$1 Dameon Pierce
$1 Alexander Mattison
$1 Keaton Mitchell
$1 Bucky Irving
$1 Jaylen Wright
$1 AJ Dillon
$1 Kenneth Gainwell
$1 D’Onta Foreman
$1 Tank Bigsby
$1 Tyrone Tracy
$1 Trey Sermon
