Each NFL season, we get about six new playoff teams. With the Kansas City Chiefs rising around the time of the New England Patriots’ demise, we still have that (relatively) automatic, set-in-stone team that takes away a bit of the postseason’s mystery. Still, like we do every year, I wanted to take a crack at guessing which six teams we might be looking at as playoff newcomers in January.
This year, in order to make the exercise a little bit more complicated, I wanted to include which team will fall out of the playoff bracket as a result of the new entry. One thought that immediately came to mind: I see the NFC as far less fungible than the AFC. That’s not a total surprise. Last year, the AFC had a quarterbacking murderer’s row, only to lose a majority of the best players over the course of a few weeks (or plays). So, it’s natural that there’s some re-settling taking place if those quarterbacks—notably Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers—stay healthy.
It’s easy to say that Team X has improved in the offseason, but I am a believer in keeping it real. All right, then. Which team didn’t? There are plenty of happy, feel-good projectors out there. But when I pick team records, I pick every single game because not every club can go 11–6.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at this season’s playoff newbies.
At the expense of: Miami Dolphins
Why: This Jets defense is incredibly deep. And you can say it doesn’t matter because it didn’t seem to last year when Rodgers was hurt and the defense was responsible for controlling games. However, there’s some selective memory at play. The Jets stuck it to Kansas City last year and beat a humming Philadelphia Eagles team before Philliy’s own collapse. If Rodgers gets injured again, there would be far more optimism internally that a quarterback such as Tyrod Taylor can win some tight games and, in the process, understand what it takes to lift the franchise emotionally.
Meanwhile, Miami scares me. This offense wears down over the course of long seasons and its 4×100 track team is almost never as effective in December and January. Paying (or not paying) Tua Tagovailoa complicates life and one has to wonder whether the defense can markedly improve without DC Vic Fangio. I think even if Taylor was the Jets’ projected starter, I would like the team’s depth and makeup slightly better than that of the Dolphins going into 2024. It’s true we don’t know what Rodgers is going to look like after his Achilles tear in ’23 and his mediocre, injury-plagued ’22. But, we know this team’s floor. The Jets have been better than most have given them credit for despite some absolutely gruesome luck when it comes to injuries.
At the expense of: Pittsburgh Steelers
Why: While I’m as curious as anyone as to how Greg Roman’s offense suits Justin Herbert, a QB you certainly wouldn’t want involved intricately in the running game, there’s no doubt the Chargers upgraded a team and got tougher across the board this offseason. Los Angeles starts the season with three very winnable games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers and Steelers, not to mention the New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals coming off an early bye. Only that Chiefs game in Week 4 looks perilous. The rest are all winnable. And, let’s say the Chargers find some momentum early. They end the season with games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Broncos, Raiders and Patriots. What are the chances that three of those four teams have a losing record by the time Los Angeles gets them? What are the chances that all four of those teams have a losing record? I think we underrate scheduling as it pertains to these supposed “rising” teams only to see the teams with a generous schedule get their comeuppance a year later.
The Steelers got better this offseason without question, but we go back to an issue of scheduling. Mike Tomlin’s teams will never be bad, but he gets the meat of the hardest division in football through the waning months of the season. With a physical, veteran team, that can be a tough ask.
At the expense of: Houston Texans
Why: The Colts and Texans open the season against each other, which should give us a good idea of how evenly matched these teams are when both feature a healthy quarterback. Last year, Houston’s season was a breath of fresh air and featured some truly inspired play from C.J. Stroud. That can be true alongside the fact that the Texans’ victories were against:
• Joe Flacco
• Gardner Minshew
• Ryan Tannehill
• Will Levis (in overtime)
• Russell Wilson
• Kyler Murray (in his second game back from a torn ACL)
• Joe Burrow
• Baker Mayfield
• Derek Carr
• Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky
• Trevor Lawrence
Meanwhile, the Colts took a good Los Angeles Rams team into overtime and beat the Baltimore Ravens in overtime, while still having the services of Anthony Richardson. That is certainly a small sample size, but why aren’t we talking more about the fact that just one game separated these two teams and that the Colts scored 19 more points than the Texans did a year ago?
At the expense of: Cleveland Browns
Why: For the Bengals, just like the Jets, having a team that was competitive and scrappy in the absence of its star quarterback is a tantalizing prospect and makes them an easy candidate for a rebound season. I saw some ESPN pundits arguing that Burrow could have a similar arc to Carson Wentz, with a complete change in perception occurring right after a trip to the Super Bowl. I’d disagree, given that the Bengals’ offense is Burrow. He runs it like Peyton Manning. He may have more control over the particulars of his offense than any of the young quarterbacks currently dominating the landscape. And, Wentz’s problems weren’t really injury related as much as they were an accumulation of bad habits and an increasing number of teams preparing for an offense that featured the kind of RPO game Wentz was good at. Burrow’s injury luck has not been great, but his ceiling as a player is infinitely higher than Wentz’s ever was. The Bengals are a Super Bowl contender every year he steps on the field at peak health.
Also, I’m not picking on the Browns, but they’ve just lost their top position coach, who headed the second-most important unit on the team (OL coach Bill Callahan, who left to join his son’s staff in Tennessee). We still don’t know what Deshaun Watson can be outside of one promising game against the Titans and one promising half against the Ravens. I think Cleveland is depending on a lot of what-ifs: What if Watson is really good? What if Nick Chubb can come back from a devastating injury? What if Jerry Jeudy figures it out? What if Myles Garrett ages beautifully? What if teams don’t pick up on Jim Schwartz in Year 2? Meanwhile, they play in the toughest division in football. One can argue the Ravens didn’t clearly upgrade this offseason, but that doesn’t make them any easier to beat. Cleveland walloped a clearly ailing Joe Burrow in Week 1 last season and lost to Jake Browning later on in the year. The team went 1–1 against the Steelers and 1–1 against the Ravens. Are we confident they will be able to gain any ground in 2024? If we had to pick between Cleveland’s roster and Cincinnati’s, assuming everyone is healthy, isn’t it hard to look at Burrow at his best, this Bengals defense at its best, the team’s skill-position players at their best and say that we don’t like the Bengals just a little bit more?
At the expense of: Dallas Cowboys
Why: Here we begin our list of changes over on the NFC side. To be clear, yes, I’m saying that I believe the San Francisco 49ers, Eagles, Rams, Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions will all make the postseason again. It’s difficult at this moment for me to imagine those teams not having good years, though I suppose a Super Bowl hangover could creep in the 49ers, the Eagles may not succeed with two new coordinators, or some unforeseen injury could sink one of these teams before they reach the playoffs.
That said, I think there’s a good deal of positivity in Chicago surrounding Caleb Williams. His early dealings with the organization have been overwhelmingly positive, the Bears upgraded the offense and Shane Waldron is a really skilled designer of offenses. Peppered throughout Chicago’s schedule are plenty of winnable games and what I’d like to consider “breaks,” though I know the mere mention of any NFL game as easy would cause a coach’s blood to boil. While the end of Williams’s first season will be brutal—with dates against Detroit (twice!), San Francisco and Green Bay—it will be the end of Williams’s first season. In theory, he’ll be better than in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans.
The Cowboys catch a stray bullet here, though I’ve thought all offseason that this team did not do enough to guarantee itself a playoff spot. Dallas isn’t markedly better than the Giants anymore. The team’s list of opponents includes the Browns, 49ers, Lions, Ravens, Bengals and Atlanta Falcons, among others. The Cowboys could be considered an underdog in almost every single one of them. They have a lame-duck coach, a taxed staff on uncertain footing and a decaying foundation on which to support a great quarterback, wide receiver and pass rusher. That worries me.
At the expense of: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why: I have not seen Derek Carr in a Kyle Shanahan offense yet. And I still kind of like Carr. And I still think Alvin Kamara will gobble up yards in this offense. And I still kind of love this old, salty Saints defense and the idea that Dennis Allen has a Todd Bowles–ian season up his sleeve with his back against the wall in New Orleans. Sure, a lot has to go right, and this is probably the one take I have without much grounding in rational thought. But every year, at least one of the six new teams is difficult to understand. One of those six teams just keeps pinballing its way to the finish. Often, that team has a lot to play for both individually and collectively. Carr, Allen, Kamara … this whole team is comprised of talented people looking for another shot.
As far as the Buccaneers go, I’ve said all I can say.
