This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third Grand Slam of 2024 begins Monday, July 1 from the grass courts of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in London. The men’s draw is a tale of two halves, with pre-tournament favorites Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner once again being denied the opportunity to potentially meet in a Grand Slam final for the first time. The ladies’ draw is wide open, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a first-time women’s champion emerge for a seventh consecutive Wimbledon, as top seed Iga Swiatek’s dominance on clay doesn’t extend to grass. Alcaraz and Sinner will be the men to beat, but the draw is set up nicely for a few American men to make deep runs and Novak Djokovic caught a break in his quest for an eighth Wimbledon title. Ons Jabeur will try to get over the hump on the women’s side after losing in the last two Wimbledon finals, and the two women that beat her (Elena Rybakina and Marketa Vondrousova) are also top-10 seeds as they look to become the first multiple-time Wimbledon champions since Serena Williams won her seventh title here in 2016.
Before we get to the Wimbledon favorites, contenders and sleepers, let’s acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. Djokovic had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee less than a month ago, but he intends to play and is in the men’s draw, while Andy Murray plans to tough out a final Wimbledon appearance after recent surgery on a spinal cist. Fellow all-time great Rafael Nadal won’t be joining them, as Nadal is preserving his body by sticking on clay in preparation for the Olympics. Jiri Lehecka (back), Nick Kyrgios (wrist), Marin Cilic (knee) remain sidelined by their respective injuries, while Frances Tiafoe is in the draw after hurting his hip two weeks ago.
The women’s draw will welcome back two high-profile names, with world No. 5 Jessica Pegula having already won a grass-court title since returning from a rib injury, and Karolina Muchova (wrist) set for only her second tournament since the U.S. Open. Jennifer Brady (knee) is still unavailable, while Petra Kvitova and Belinda Bencic will miss this tournament on account of their pregnancies. Top women’s contenders have picked up a litany of minor injuries and ailments during the grass-court season, but Aryna Sabalenka (shoulder), Rybakina (abdomen), Vondrousova (hip), Jabeur (illness), Victoria Azarenka (illness), Anna Kalinskaya (back), Elise Mertens (hip), Caroline Wozniacki (knee), Katie Boulter (illness), Yulia Putintseva (knee) and Anastasia Potapova (knee) are all in the draw.
After each player’s name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (DK), FanDuel Sportsbook (FD), BetMGM (BetMGM) and Caesars Sportsbook (Caesars) in that order. These odds have been updated as of Friday afternoon. The odds can vary substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple betting platforms. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Favorite
Jannik Sinner [DK: (+175), FD: (+160), BetMGM: (+185), Caesars: (+175] – Sinner is the No. 1 seed at a Grand Slam for the first time in his career, and he has earned that privilege with a 38-3 record this year, including his career Grand Slam title at the Australian Open and a title in Halle in Sinner’s only grass-court action of 2024. Being the top seed definitely didn’t equate to an easy draw for Sinner, though. He could face 2021 Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini in the second round, and No. 27 seed Tallon Griekspoor is a tough third-round draw considering he had Alexander Zverev on the ropes at Roland Garros and has pushed Sinner to a deciding set twice in 2024. Big hitters Ben Shelton and Denis Shapovalov lurk in the fourth round, followed by No. 5 Daniil Medvedev or No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, just to get to a potential Alcaraz-Djokovic gauntlet in the final two rounds. If anyone can navigate this daunting path, it’s Sinner, whose big baseline game is an ideal fit for today’s grass courts, which play faster than hard courts but have been slowed compared to the bygone days of serve-and-volley dominance.
In the Mix
Carlos Alcaraz [DK: (+225), FD: (+230), BetMGM: (+225), Caesars: (+175)] – Alcaraz is basically a co-favorite with Sinner. The reigning Wimbledon champion is coming off his first French Open title and third major title overall, but Alcaraz has shown some vulnerability on faster surfaces this year, and a grass-court loss to Jack Draper at Queen’s Club didn’t dispel that notion. That loss had a significant knock-on effect, as Alcaraz’s points from last year’s Queen’s Club title fell off and pushed him down to third in the rankings, which led to Alcaraz winding up in Sinner’s half of the draw to set up a potential rematch of the French Open semifinal. Alcaraz won that match to take a 5-4 head-to-head lead, but Sinner beat Alcaraz at Wimbledon in 2022. The 21-year-old Spaniard’s early draw is comparatively easier, with Frances Tiafoe, Ugo Humbert, then Tommy Paul or Casper Ruud as his chalk opponents after two matches against players outside the top 50.
Novak Djokovic [DK: (+350), FD: (+330), BetMGM: (+350), Caesars: (+275)] – Djokovic is the biggest winner of Friday’s draw announcement, but the No. 2 seed is still a clear third among the favorites despite avoiding Sinner and Alcaraz prior to the final. The seven-time Wimbledon champion has been training at the All England Club and intends to give it a go after tearing the meniscus in his right knee at the French Open. Remember that he actually won the French Open Round of 16 match in which he tore his meniscus, so even a diminished Djokovic should have no trouble navigating arguably the easiest draw in the tournament through three rounds. Even before the injury, the 37-year-old Djokovic had declined significantly in 2024, as his 18-6 record includes a 0-3 mark in semifinals. His path in the second week is no cakewalk, with Holger Rune or Karen Khachanov in the Round of 16, Hubert Hurkacz or Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals, and a potpourri of potential semifinal opponents that includes Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Taylor Fritz, Sebastian Korda and Jack Draper.
There is a massive odds drop-off after Djokovic, with Alexander Zverev [DK: (+1800), FD: (+1700), BetMGM: (+1600), Caesars: (+1600)], Hubert Hurkacz [DK: (+2000), FD: (+1600), BetMGM: (+1200), Caesars: (+1800)], Jack Draper [DK: (+2200), FD: (+2900), BetMGM: (+2000), Caesars: (+2500)], Alex de Minaur [DK: (+2800), FD: (+2600), BetMGM: (+2500), Caesars: (+2200)] and Daniil Medvedev [DK: (+3000), FD: (+4000), BetMGM: (+2800), Caesars: (+2000)] making up the next tier of title hopefuls.
Zverev just reached the French Open final and has the tools to excel on grass with one of the best serves in the world, but this has been his weakest Grand Slam. The 27-year-old German has failed to reach the quarterfinals in seven Wimbledon appearances while making multiple semifinals at each of the other three majors. Seeded fourth, Zverev won’t need to face Djokovic until the semis and Sinner/Alcaraz until the final, but he still faces an immensely difficult draw, with Draper in the third round and Taylor Fritz in the fourth, then one of Rublev, Tsitsipas or Korda in the quarterfinals. This is a daunting draw by 2024 standards, but the lack of depth near the top of the ATP Tour compared to most of Zverev’s career thus far suggests this is still his best chance at a run deep into the second week.
Hurkacz’s lone Grand Slam semifinal appearance to date came at Wimbledon in 2021, and he has realistic aspirations of equaling or bettering that result here. The 6-foot-5 Pole beat eight-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer in the quarterfinals that year and could face seven-time champion Djokovic in the quarters this year. A strong serving fortnight from the seventh-seeded Hurkacz could bring him a long way in the easier bottom half of the draw, though his particular section is challenging from the get-go, with Arthur Fils in the second round, the winner of the Andy Murray/Tomas Machac/2023 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Roman Safiullin/No. 26 seed Francisco Cerundolo gauntlet in the third round, and one of de Minaur or Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Round of 16.
Draper’s a surprising name to see in this group, so he’s no longer a value sleeper, but there are a few reasons his title chances are so good. The 22-year-old Brit has more grass-court practice than most players on tour since he grew up playing on the surface, and the big-serving lefty’s game fits well on grass. Injuries have prevented Draper from reaching his potential up to this point, but he has compiled a few notable victories in his young career, none bigger than his grass-court triumph over Alcaraz less than two weeks ago, which helped propel Draper to a career-high No. 29 ranking. A victory over Zverev in the third round is very much a realistic result, but a Murray-like title run to send the host nation into a frenzy, not so much.
De Minaur picked up his second career grass-court title in ‘s-Hertogenbosch shortly after reaching his first French Open quarterfinal, but the ninth-seeded Australian speedster will have a hard time mustering enough offense to truly contend for the title and would be fighting an uphill battle from the Round of 16 onwards if the draw unfolds as expected. Medvedev made the semifinals last year after posting just an 8-4 prior Wimbledon record. He’s far more comfortable on hard courts than grass, and Medvedev would have a hard time getting through resurgent No. 10 seed Grigor Dimitrov [DK: (+4000), FD: (+6500), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+3500)] in the Round of 16 to set up a quarterfinal matchup with Sinner.
Sleepers
Taylor Fritz [DK: (+6000), FD: (+4700), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+3500)] – Fritz is getting some matches in at Eastbourne, where he will play the final Saturday before heading to the All-England Club. The 13th-seeded American is in Zverev’s quarter, so he’s in the right section to do some serious damage. Fritz is 0-3 in Grand Slam quarterfinals starting with his five-set loss to Nadal at Wimbledon two years ago, but this could be his best look since at a semifinal. His draw prior to a potential fourth-round clash with Zverev is favorable, and Fritz has the serving prowess and well-rounded ground game to do damage on grass.
Tommy Paul [DK: (+4000), FD: (+3700), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+4000)] – If Paul was in the bottom half of the draw, he might be getting the same love as Draper from the oddsmakers considering Paul beat Draper en route to the title at Queen’s Club, where the American didn’t drop a set. The draw isn’t all bad for the No. 12 seed, as Paul is favored to reach the quarterfinals over No. 8 seed Casper Ruud, who prefers slower courts, though big-serving Alexander Bublik could present problems for Paul in the third round. Should Paul get to the quarterfinals, he’ll likely face Alcaraz, though you shouldn’t rule out a second career Grand Slam semifinal appearance for Paul too quickly here given his even 2-2 head-to-head against Alcaraz.
Sebastian Korda [DK: (+8000), FD: (+7500), BetMGM: (+6600), Caesars: (+5000)] – Korda rounds out the all-American slumber party of sleepers in a tournament where Americans have thrived over the years. All three of Paul, Fritz and Korda have the game and draw needed to reach the quarterfinals. The 20th-seeded Korda’s road to the quarterfinals could require navigating through both No. 11 Stefanos Tsitsipas and No. 6 Andrey Rublev, but Tsitsipas is just 8-6 in his career at Wimbledon and Rublev’s game has a distinct ceiling, which is evidenced by the Russian’s 0-10 career Grand Slam quarterfinal record. A bonus American deep sleeper is Brandon Nakashima [DK: (+30000), FD: (+25000), BetMGM: (+40000), Caesars: (+25000)], who has done a great job taking care of his serve this year and could make a nice little fourth-round run in a section with No. 18 seed Sebastian Baez and No. 16 seed Ugo Humbert.
The Favorite
Aryna Sabalenka [DK: (+320), FD: (+340), BetMGM: (+333), Caesars: (+300)] – Sabalenka has the best odds of any individual but is a comfortable underdog against the field. The No. 3 seed is searching for her first Wimbledon title and third Grand Slam overall, having won each of the last two Australian Opens. She made the semifinals or better at six consecutive majors before losing to Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals of the French Open. Sabalenka’s immense power off the ground and big serve work well on faster courts, and her serving yips have been in the rearview mirror for a while, though it remains to be seen if there are any lingering effects from a shoulder injury she picked up a week ago. Sabalenka could get a chance to avenge her loss to Andreeva in the Round of 16, or perhaps face either Karolina Muchova or No. 14 seed Daria Kasatkina at that stage. Her likeliest quarterfinal opponents are No. 8 seed Qinwen Zheng or No. 9 seed Maria Sakkari, so Sabalenka has a relatively favorable draw before a semifinal showdown with the winner of Coco Gauff’s section.
In the Mix
Iga Swiatek [DK: (+450), FD: (+500), BetMGM: (+400), Caesars: (+325)] – Swiatek’s aura of invincibility doesn’t transfer over from clay and hard courts to grass, as the world No. 1 is a dominant 45-4 in 2024 but has just a 9-4 career record at Wimbledon, with last year’s quarterfinal run representing her highwater mark. Knocking Swiatek out of rhythm with power is the best way to beat her, which is easier to do on the faster grass, where she also doesn’t move as naturally compared to other surfaces. Swiatek will have to shake off the rust and adjust quickly in her first match since winning a fourth French Open, as first-round opponent Sofia Kenin is a former Grand Slam champion herself and upset Gauff in the first round of Wimbledon last year. Potential third-round and fourth-round opponents Angelique Kerber and Jelena Ostapenko are also former major champions, so Swiatek has a tricky path to matching last year’s result. She could face defending Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova in the quarterfinals, then perhaps Elena Rybakina or Ons Jabeur in the semis.
Elena Rybakina [DK: (+600), FD: (+600), BetMGM: (+650), Caesars: (+450)] – Rybakina’s lone Grand Slam title came at this venue two years ago. That result was unexpected at the time, but her play since has proven it was no fluke, as she’s become an established top-four player and has three titles in 2024. Rybakina’s big serve plays up on the grass, though an abdominal injury suffered less than two weeks ago may keep her from reaching maximum effectiveness. After a relatively straightforward early draw, she could face No. 15 seed Liudmila Samsonova or No. 17 Anna Kalinskaya in the Round of 16, then Ons Jabeur or Jessica Pegula in the quarters, so Rybakina’s section is trickier than Sabalenka’s or Swiatek’s.
Coco Gauff [DK: (+700), FD: (+750), BetMGM: (+700), Caesars: (+650)] – Gauff’s seeded second but is fourth in the odds, which is understandable considering she’s the only one of the top four seeds who has yet to reach a Wimbledon quarterfinal; her breakout Round of 16 Wimbledon run as a 15-year-old in 2019 is still tied for Gauff’s best result at the All England Club. Like Swiatek, Gauff prefers slower surfaces, but at least her 1-11 head-to-head against Swiatek won’t come into play unless they meet in the final. Gauff’s first three rounds aren’t too daunting, but the players she faces after that will be battle-tested. Any of Victoria Azarenka, Emma Navarro, Naomi Osaka or Karolina Pliskova could emerge as her fourth-round opponent, with French Open runner-up Jasmine Paolini, Madison Keys, Marta Kostyuk, Linda Noskova and Bianca Andreescu all aspiring to face Gauff in the quarterfinals.
Ons Jabeur [DK: (+1200), FD: (+1500), BetMGM: (+1400), Caesars: (+1200)] – Some of Jabeur’s best memories have come at the All England Club, but so have two of the most painful ones, as she lost in the final each of the last two years. Perhaps no player on either tour would benefit more than Jabeur if there were a more expansive grass-court season, as her cerebral and slice-heavy game is tailor-made for this surface. She’s seeded 10th on the heels of a French Open quarterfinal run, and Jabeur may be running out of opportunities to finally break through for a Grand Slam title, with her 30th birthday less than two months away. The Tunisian is favored to come out of No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula’s section and face Rybakina in the quarterfinals for what would be a rematch of the 2022 final.
The next group of title hopefuls includes Naomi Osaka [DK: (+1600), FD: (+2000), BetMGM: (+1400), Caesars: (+1200)], Madison Keys [DK: (+2000), FD: (+2100), BetMGM: (+2200), Caesars: (+2200)], Jessica Pegula [DK: (+2000), FD: (+2000), BetMGM: (+2200), Caesars: (+2000)], Mirra Andreeva [DK: (+2500), FD: (+2800), BetMGM: (+2500), Caesars: (+2200)] and Emma Raducanu [DK: (+2500), FD: (+3200), BetMGM: (+2000), Caesars: (+3500)].
Keys is by far the most intriguing bet from this group. Wimbledon is the only Grand Slam at which the 29-year-old American has yet to reach the semifinals, but this could be the year that changes. She’s a two-time quarterfinalist at this event, and the No. 12 seed has the power to hit through any opponent on this surface when she’s on. Keys has also been playing well coming in, with a 15-4 record across her last five events. She could face 18th-seeded Marta Kostyuk in the third round, then Jasmine Paolini or Bianca Andreescu before a possible all-American quarterfinal against Gauff. Given Swiatek’s overall cache, Gauff’s probably the member of the Big Four you want to be playing against with a semifinal berth on the line on grass.
Osaka put the tennis world on alert when she got to match point against Swiatek in the second round of the French Open, as clay is Osaka’s worst surface and Swiatek’s best. All four of Osaka’s Grand Slam titles have come on hard courts, and while her big serve gives her a high ceiling on grass, she hasn’t quite mastered moving on this surface. Being ranked down at 111th doesn’t help matters, as Osaka got thrown into a tough section with rising star Emma Navarro and No. 16 seed Victoria Azarenka blocking her path to a Round of 16 clash with Gauff. Osaka can beat anyone on a given day, but stringing together numerous high-quality performances to make a deep run with this draw seems unlikely. Pegula has played three grass-court titles since returning from a two-month injury layoff, sandwiching a title between two losses to players ranked outside the top 100. The fifth-seeded American would likely have to beat British fan favorite Katie Boulter and then Jabeur just to reach the quarterfinals, at which stage Pegula’s 0-6 at the Grand Slam level.
The Jack Draper hype is excessive yet understandable, but British homers betting on Raducanu to win the title at these odds are just throwing money away. The confident, care-free yet polished tennis that led her to a U.S. Open title as a 19-year-old qualifier is nowhere to be found at the moment, in part due to injuries and setbacks holding Raducanu back, and in part due to opponents having figured out her game. That’s not to say that the 21-year-old Brit can’t get back to that level eventually, but just getting past the second round at a Grand Slam for the first time since that U.S. Open title would be an accomplishment at this tournament considering Raducanu comes in ranked 168th. Andreeva’s also a fade here, simply because the 17-year-old Russian’s game is optimized for slower courts at this stage of her career. Her French Open semifinal run was further evidence that the sky’s the limit for Andreeva long-term, but she can still be overpowered on grass, and likely facing Muchova in the second round doesn’t help her chances.
Sleepers
Marketa Vondrousova [DK: (+5000), FD: (+5000), BetMGM: (+4000), Caesars: (+2800)] – The reigning Wimbledon champion sits well outside the top 10 in the odds. That speaks to just how many quality contenders there are in the women’s game, but I’d take a healthy Vondrousova at even money over the whole last group above sans Keys, let alone at odds twice as long. Unfortunately, Vondrousova may not be healthy, as she hurt her hip after a slip in Berlin less than two weeks ago. If at or close to full strength, the No. 6 seed has more than enough grass-court skills to navigate a comfortable first three rounds before facing the cooled-off Danielle Collins in the Round of 16 to set up a possible quarterfinal matchup with Swiatek. Vondrousova showed last season that her crafty lefty game can carry her to the finish line in the second week of Wimbledon.
Karolina Muchova [DK: (+4000), FD: (+7000), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+5000)] – Muchova’s a two-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist and enjoyed a breakout season last year, reaching the French Open final and U.S. Open semifinal before a wrist injury sidelined her until recently. If close to full strength, she has the talent and game style to make a deep run. Muchova’s crafty from the baseline and one of the best volleyers on the WTA Tour. Getting to the net is still a great idea even on the slightly slower modern grass, but Muchova’s physical fitness and match fitness will both be put to the test early, as she faces Paula Badosa in Round 1, then could face Andreeva in Round 2 and No. 14 seed Daria Kasatkina in Round 3. A similarly talented but injury-prone player in the vein of Muchova is Bianca Andreescu [DK: (+12000), FD: (+12000), BetMGM: (+10000), Caesars: (+8000)], who reached the ‘s-Hertogenbosch final in her second tournament back from her latest injury and has some deep sleeper appeal.
Katie Boulter [DK: (+5000), FD: (+6000), BetMGM: (+5000), Caesars: (+6000)] – Move over Badosa and Tsitsipas, as Boulter and de Minaur are making their case to challenge Kalinskaya and Sinner as the premier WTA-ATP power couple this side of the Gael Monfils-Elina Svitolina marriage. De Minaur has done his part by climbing into the top 10 in 2024, but Boulter’s playing catch-up. She just demonstrated her grass-court upside by winning the title in Nottingham for a second consecutive year, and the 32nd-seeded Brit could really give the crowd something to cheer about if she takes out Pegula in the third round. Given the state of Raducanu’s game, Boulter is the best local hope for a deep run on the women’s side.
Jannik Sinner was my pick before the draw was made, and I’m sticking with him despite the difficult draw. Like the French Open, the championship-deciding match will likely be a Sinner-Alcaraz semifinal. Sinner’s superior serve and ball-striking can carry him to victory on the faster grass after Alcaraz’s athleticism and creativity won out on clay. With Djokovic far from 100 percent and Zverev having underwhelmed at Wimbledon over the years, we could see a first-time Grand Slam finalist for the first time since Alcaraz won the 2022 U.S. Open. Fritz and Hurkacz are both candidates for that feat.
Ons Jabeur has come tantalizingly close here twice, and she’s as good a title pick as any in the wide-open women’s draw. A big hitter like Sabalenka or Keys could come out of the bottom half to create a contrast in styles in the final against Jabeur. Rybakina’s also a top-tier contender, with a potential Jabeur-Rybakina quarterfinal possibly proving to be the match that decides the tournament.
