This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of Wimbledon commences Friday from the grass courts of the All England Club in London. A battle between well-known ATP Tour veterans could produce an upset based on their previous encounters, while two of America’s top hopes in the women’s draw may see disparate results against opponents of vastly different quality.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men’s singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women’s singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players’ previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Marta Kostyuk (+255) vs. Madison Keys
Keys is a polarizing player, as her immense power makes the 13th-ranked American a sleeper title pick, but Keys is also susceptible to bad losses when her timing falls off. A defeat at the hands of the 19th-ranked Kostyuk would hardly qualify as a bad loss considering Kostyuk had Coco Gauff on the ropes in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open this year and has five wins over top-10 players in 2024. Keys is rightfully favored, but Kostyuk should be much less of an underdog than these odds reflect.
Gael Monfils (+290) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Both of these household names are past their prime, but Dimitrov seems closer to his best tennis with the No. 10 ranking at age 33 than the 33rd-ranked Monfils is at 37 years old. That explains why Dimitrov is favored, but Monfils has enjoyed a substantial head-to-head edge. Monfils leads 4-1 overall and has won 10 of 11 sets in those four wins, while Dimitrov’s lone victory came via Monfils retiring in the first set. Dimitrov reached the semifinals here back in 2014, but that’s the only time either of these two players have been past the fourth round at Wimbledon. In theory, playing on grass should help Monfils at this stage as he adapts to playing more of an “old-man game” that shortens rallies by featuring his immense power more than his flashy defense.
Honorable Mention
Jan-Lennard Struff (+150) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Coco Gauff (-1100) vs. Sonay Kartal
Snubbed for a wild card by her home country, the 22-year-old Kartal got into the Wimbledon draw the hard way, winning three qualifying matches and backing it up with a pair of main-draw wins. It has been an impressive run for the 298th-ranked Brit, who came into this tournament without a Grand Slam main-draw win in her career. This run will likely end right here, though, as the second-ranked Gauff is simply a different class of player. The locked-in American has dropped just six games through two matches while adapting her game to grass by playing more aggressively and even sprinkling in some big serves over 120 miles per hour.
Donna Vekic (-280) vs. Dayana Yastremska
Yastremska reached the Australian Open semifinals as a qualifier, but she has gone just 10-11 since then, including her pair of wins here. Vekic is ranked 10 spots back of the 27th-ranked Ukrainian, but the big-hitting Croatian has been playing better tennis lately and has a history of consistent Grand Slam success, while the jury is still out on whether Yastremska’s Australian Open run was a flash in the pan. Vekic reached the final of the Bad Homburg Open on grass in her last tournament before Wimbledon, and she has been to at least the Round of 16 at all four Grand Slams in her career, while Yastremska went three full years without getting past the first round at a Grand Slam between the 2020 U.S. Open and this year’s Australian Open.
Honorable Mention
Roberto Bautista Agut (-205) vs. Fabio Fognini
Daria Kasatkina (-170) vs. Paula Badosa
Kasatkina’s feeble serve is a weakness on every surface, but the 12th-ranked Russian is showing that the rest of her game is well-suited for grass. She has dropped just three games through two rounds, handing out three bagels along the way. Kasatkina won the Rothesy International on grass leading up to this tournament and is 8-1 on grass in 2024, with the lone loss coming against Aryna Sabalenka, who was the oddsmakers’ favorite to win this title before pulling out due to a shoulder injury. Badosa doesn’t have a top-20 win in the last calendar year, as the Spaniard doesn’t seem capable of reaching the same heights she could before injuries began depleting her game over the last couple years.
Brandon Nakashima (+110) vs. Ugo Humbert
Nakashima has had excellent underlying service hold numbers all year, and he’s been serving tremendously so far at Wimbledon, posting 25 aces compared to one double fault while having yet to be broken across a pair of straight-set wins over top-40 players. Humbert is ranked 49 spots above Nakashima at No. 16, but the Frenchman came into Wimbledon on a three-match grass-court losing streak and needed five sets to get out of the first round against Alexander Shevchenko. Humbert has a history of folding in the biggest tournaments, as he has been past the third round of a major only once despite his lofty ranking, having reached the Round of 16 at Wimbledon back in 2019.
Honorable Mention
Emma Navarro (-120) vs. Diana Shnaider
