This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of Wimbledon continues Saturday from the grass courts of the All England Club in London. A pair of British underdogs will look to keep thrilling the crowd, while two 20-year-old French rising stars will look to keep their Wimbledon runs going against unseeded opponents.
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All men’s singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women’s singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players’ previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Harriet Dart (+185) vs. Xinyu Wang
Dart is into the Wimbledon third round for the second time in her career after beating British compatriot Katie Boulter in a match tiebreak Thursday. The local crowd favorite has a nice opportunity to keep progressing against fellow unseeded player Xinyu Wang. While Wang has a 58-spot edge in the rankings at No. 42, the Chinese 22-year-old will have the pressure on her as the favorite coming off an upset win over No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula, and she’ll also have to deal with a hostile crowd against one of two British women remaining in the draw, alongside the resurgent Emma Raducanu.
Cameron Norrie (+500) vs. Alexander Zverev
Like Dart, Norrie is coming out of a second-round match in which the second-highest ranked British player defeated the top-ranked Brit. The former world No. 8 has dropped to No. 42, but Norrie looked like a top-10 player in his straight-sets win over Jack Draper. Norrie made the Wimbledon semifinals in 2022, while Zverev has never been past the fourth round here, so the disparity between their ability on grass isn’t nearly as large as their 38-spot rankings gap suggests. Zverev needed a fifth-set tiebreak to get by Norrie at the Australian Open, and the court conditions and crowd will be tilted more in Norrie’s favor here.
Honorable Mention
Yulia Putintseva (+550) vs. Iga Swiatek
Jelena Ostapenko (-340) vs. Bernarda Pera
Ostapenko’s one of the best all-court players on the WTA Tour, as she has been to the quarterfinals or better at every Grand Slam, including a Wimbledon semifinal in 2018. The 14th-ranked Latvian has been locked in, dropping just six games through two rounds, and this match against the 97th-ranked Pera could be one-way traffic as well. Pera plays her best tennis on clay and was 0-5 at Wimbledon prior to this year. The American lefty has been past the third round only once in 25 previous Grand Slam events, providing a sharp contrast to Ostapenko, who has been a second-week staple in majors.
Ons Jabeur (-200) vs. Elina Svitolina
Jabeur is 14-2 at Wimbledon over the last three years, with both losses coming in championship matches. Svitolina’s a far tougher opponent than the No. 10 seed had to face in the first two rounds, but Jabeur should still be viewed as the commanding favorite on this surface, especially since the 21st-ranked Svitolina came into this tournament with just a 9-9 record since the start of March. Svitolina leads their head-to-head 3-1, but all of those wins came over five years ago, while Jabeur took their most recent encounter in 2021.
Honorable Mention
Taylor Fritz (-380) vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Arthur Fils (-140) vs. Roman Safiullin
Fils’ second-round win over No. 7 seed Hubert Hurkacz was overshadowed a bit by Hurkacz suffering a knee injury that caused the Pole to retire down match point, but Fils had worked himself to two points from the match in the fourth-set tiebreak at that point. The 34th-ranked French youngster has been compared to two-time Wimbledon semifinalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Fils’ own flashy power game has translated quite well to the grass. Fils is 5-2 on grass this year, with both of the 20-year-old’s losses coming against opponents ranked in the top 20. Safiullin has come alive at Wimbledon again after last year’s surprising quarterfinal run, but the 44th-ranked Russian is just 3-7 in his Grand Slam career outside these last two years at the All England Club, and he’s 8-14 overall in 2024.
Emil Ruusuvuori (+100) vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Mpetshi Perricard has a huge serve at 6-foot-8 and good offense to back it up but a backhand that’s not quite up to snuff at the ATP Tour level. The 20-year-old Frenchman has made the most of his opportunity as a lucky loser after falling in qualifying, but his body isn’t used to playing best-of-five set tennis consistently, so it’s fair to wonder if some fatigue will be starting to affect Mpetshi Perricard in his first venture past the first round of a major. Ruusuvuori has been clutch in this tournament, winning all four tiebreaks he has played through two rounds, and he’ll be brimming with confidence after upsetting No. 11 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round. The Finn was able to expertly expose Tsitsipas’ vulnerable backhand in that match, so he can carry a lot of that same game plan over to this match. Given Mpetshi Perricard’s excellent serve and poor return, this match will likely feature multiple tiebreaks as well, and Ruusuvuori is well positioned to excel in those.
Honorable Mention
Anna Kalinskaya (-110) vs. Liudmila Samsonova
