Everyone knows it’s important to hone in on sleepers in your 2024 fantasy football drafts. However, avoiding busts can be just as important so that you’re not wasting draft capital on players who are likely to underperform. FantasyPros analyst Derek Brown identified players he believes are likely to let you down in his Draft Day Cheat Sheet.
Here’s a look at the wide receiver busts he wants to avoid in fantasy football drafts.
Stefon Diggs faced a challenging 2023 season, finishing as WR10 overall but averaging just 13 points per game, landing him as WR15 in half-point scoring. His performance waned significantly from Week 10 onwards, averaging a mere 7.3 points and 42 receiving yards per game. Despite maintaining a near 30% target share and accumulating over 1,800 air yards for the season, Diggs struggled to deliver consistent fantasy production. With uncertainty surrounding his role in the Texans’ offense and competition from Tank Dell and Nico Collins, fantasy managers may approach Diggs with caution entering his age 31 season.
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown had a forgettable 2023 season, struggling with inconsistent quarterback play and injuries. Despite posting impressive air yards and target share numbers, he failed to produce consistently, averaging just 7.8 points per game. However, his move to the Chiefs presents a promising opportunity to revive his career alongside Patrick Mahomes. With his speed and playmaking ability, Brown could become a fantasy WR2 in Kansas City’s offense, given the potential absence of Rashee Rice.
Jordan Addison had a solid rookie campaign, recording 70 receptions for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns on a 17% target share. His consistent contributions earned him an average of 11 fantasy points per game, ranking him as WR28 overall. Despite his promising performance, his fantasy outlook for 2024 is clouded by uncertainty at the quarterback position following Kirk Cousins‘ departure. At least, the absence of T.J. Hockenson due to injury could boost Addison’s role in the offense to open the season.
Kupp took a step back last year, and there’s no denying it. Last year, he dealt with an ankle sprain and hamstring issues, which could be partially to blame, but at his advancing age (31 years old), it’s no sure thing that he will reclaim all or any of his former glory in 2024. Does that mean it’s time for Kupp to hang it up? No. Last year, in 12 games with him and Puka Nacua active, Kupp still commanded a 23.4% target share, produced 2.08 yards per route run, and was the WR23 in fantasy points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). Kupp could return WR2 value in 2024, but his days as a WR1 are likely over. Kupp is a player that my interest is lukewarm at best for 2024, but if I can get him as a WR3 for my fantasy teams, I’m more inclined to take the plunge in drafts.
Jayden Reed made an impact in his rookie season, as a primary slot receiver for the Packers. Despite not always playing a full-time role, he was heavily targeted, with a 25% target rate per route run and just under 2 yards per route run. Reed led all Packers wide receivers in points/game with 10.6 and ten touchdowns. He finished as a top-12 WR in 33% of his games (12th) and ranked fourth in fantasy points per snap.
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