2023 provided one of the all-time great sleeper running backs for fantasy football in Kyren Williams, adding him to a list that in recent years includes James Robinson in 2020, Elijah Mitchell in 2021 and Antonio Gibson in 2020. With fantasy football more popular than ever it’s getting harder and harder to find sleepers, but here are some of the best candidates in 2024 going outside of the top 100 picks.
If Tony Pollard hadn’t been added in free agency then it’s very possible Tyjae Spears would be a fourth-round pick right about now. As it is, Spears sits just outside the top 100 and is a fine bet for 2024 drafts, having ranked third among rookie running backs in receptions last year with 49, having the second-highest target share among rookies at 14.9% and ranking fourth in total yardage. Spears was given plenty of opportunities to shine in 2023 with the Titans comfortable using him on both passing downs and rushing plays. While Pollard does profile quite similarly to Spears in some ways that isn’t necessarily a bad thing with both players able to mix in throughout games in what should be an improved offense. When it comes to ambiguous backfields, targeting the cheaper option has proved smart historically.
The Commanders are an ascending offense, finally making a strong addition at quarterback after several years in QB purgatory, and the whole offense should take a step forward as a result. Kliff Kingsbury has been installed as the new offensive coordinator and while there were valid complaints about his passing scheme in Arizona, his running game was always excellent. Kingsbury favors a no-huddle type offense giving defenses less time to react. One of the key features is that players who are on the offensive side of the ball tend to stay on the field consistently. This is where Brian Robinson Jr. comes into play. Robinson is the clear choice for first-down work, having rushed for a consistent 4.1 yards per carry in 2022. Free-agent addition Austin Ekeler is coming off an awful year by his standards, seeing his missed tackles forced per game drop from 4.2 in 2022 to 2.9 in 2023, along with setting a career-low in yards after contact per attempt, a number that has fallen for Ekeler in six straight seasons. Robinson might not be as strong of a pass-catcher as Ekeler, but if he’s staying on the field, targets can find their way to him regardless.
Ever since the Cardinals picked Trey Benson in the third round of the draft they’ve been gushing positively about him. Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort said, “I think Trey [Benson] fits us from a schematic standpoint, in that he’s instinctive, he’s tough, he’s physical, he’s got good contact balance, he’s able to run through and gain tough yards.” He then mentioned how much speed and burst they see from Benson and that he can be the perfect complement to James Conner, who, while still a good running back, hasn’t played more than 13 games in a season ever and has managed 32 over the last three seasons in total. If anything happens to Conner, or when, Benson’s three-down abilities will be very valuable. Benson averaged over 11 yards per reception in each of his last two seasons at Florida State, along with rushing for over 900 yards in both.
2023 wasn’t exactly a standout rookie campaign for Zach Charbonnet who we had high hopes for after he was drafted only 11 spots later than Kenneth Walker the previous year. Charbonnet did, however, run the fourth-most routes per game among rookie running backs (17.5) and averaged a healthy 4.2 yards per carry. He also picked up 30 first downs in the ground game, three more than De’Von Achane. With a new and exciting offense under Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks should be more fun for fantasy this year. If anything were to happen to Walker, Charbonnet would be an every-week top-24 back.
The Vikings brought in Aaron Jones as their lead back but the 29-year-old struggled to stay healthy in 2023, playing only 11 games and the fall-off can be pretty swift when running backs turn 28. Ty Chandler had five games with 13+ touches from Week 10 onwards and was a top-36 running back in four of the five. This is the kind of production we can be happy with when looking for a running back outside the top 100 picks as long as the players we selected at the top end of the draft carry our team. With J.J. McCarthy in town, there remains a possibility the Vikings aren’t pass-heavy and have to lean on the running game plenty this year.
Nobody is expecting the new Falcons coaching staff to do anything but feed Bijan Robinson as they look to correct the Arthur Smith-shaped mistakes of 2023, but we shouldn’t expect Tyler Allgeier to disappear completely. Robinson averaged 15.9 touches while Tyler Allgeier averaged 12.2, as he was a nuisance to both Robinson and fantasy managers. Allgeier warranted involvement, though, averaging 1.9 yards per route run compared to Robinson’s 1.0. He also managed an almost identical 3.0 rushing yards after contact compared to Robinson’s 3.1. Allgeier’s path to a ceiling outcome is only blocked by Robinson being able to stay healthy, which is no sure thing at the running back position. Allgeier has standalone value and could potentially be the best backup running back in the league.
For a last-round dart throw, people could do worse than consider Rasheen Ali. The Ravens brought in Derrick Henry to improve their rushing attack and while Henry has defied the narrative around 28-year-old running backs hitting the cliff edge, he is now 30. After Henry, the Ravens have Justice Hill, who is more valued for his special teams contributions. Then there’s Keaton Mitchell, who is recovering from a torn ACL suffered in December. He’s unlikely to get on the field any time soon. Ali is an explosive back with really good vision who rushed for over 1,100 yards in both 2021 and 2023, missing most of 2022 with an injury. For a rushing-heavy team like the Ravens, taking shots on their running backs makes sense.
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