There’s ebb and flow to every NFL Sunday, but last week’s sleeper page goes down as a win simply for pounding the table for Tucker Kraft and avoiding the bad cheese of Deshaun Watson, despite a plus matchup. There were some other smaller hits, like Trey Sermon and Jordan Whittington, and of course a few bricks mixed in.
Let’s see what Week 6 has for us.
This is one of the most obvious calls of the week. Jones, let’s face it, is playing well. He’s been QB6, QB11 and QB11 in three of his last four starts, and last week’s 22.1 points came despite Malik Nabers not playing.
Nabers should return this week, and the Giants match up against a leaky Cincinnati secondary and a fun Bengals passing game. This game could turn into pinball, and the total is set for 48 points.
Daniel Jones, Circle of Trust? For this week, I’ll sign off.
The Titans aren’t a great matchup and we have to be sure Joe Flacco is starting — if Anthony Richardson gets the call (and eventually Indy has to return to him, work on his development), the Colts passing game could hit the skids again. But Flacco’s been on a multiple-game heater since the Browns plugged him in last year, and he’s immediately shown chemistry with his receiving room. Downs and Pierce also get a bump now that we know Michael Pittman Jr. (back) will miss multiple games.
This isn’t just a rental recommendation, there’s potential staying power. Tolbert had a snappy 7-87-1 line at Pittsburgh on Sunday night, including the game-winning touchdown, and I suspect he can hold this starting position even after Brandin Cooks is healthy. The Week 6 matchup is favorable — Detroit’s defense is more vulnerable to the pass. The Cowboys will need to throw proactively, and that means Tolbert should have a solid role.
It might be hard to trust Dalton and the Panthers’ passing game after last week’s blowout loss but give the Bears defense a lot of credit for that result. Chicago’s a nightmare draw for any quarterback right now. The Falcons have a below-average pass rush and are 22nd in pass-defense DVOA. Dalton will have time to cook in this game and should get to 250 yards and two touchdowns without much difficulty. Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard (obviously not sleepers) also get a recommendation check for this matchup.
Early in the year, Allen Lazard was the hot sleeper in New York, the old standby of Aaron Rodgers. But Lazard’s stock continues to dip (he’s the NFL’s leader in dropped passes); meanwhile, Conklin’s market share keeps rising. Conklin has 23 targets and 15 catches over the last three weeks, not insignificant stats at fantasy’s trickiest position. The lack of a touchdown hurts, but Rodgers has always liked featuring tight ends around the goal, and we know New York has struggled to run in the red zone. I expect Conklin to crash the top 10 at the position this week.
Sometimes you have to dial up some unusual plays during bye-week season, and maybe this is one of them. Johnson obviously isn’t Chicago’s primary back, but he’s scored three times in two weeks and fits the goal-line assignment better than D’Andre Swift. And perhaps there’s room for both backs in the London game, as the Jacksonville rushing defense is the seventh-most friendly draw for opposing runners. Wake up early on Sunday and give Johnson some consideration as a deeper-league play.
Just how desperate are you at running back? Ogunbowale has the trust of C.J. Stroud, catching 10-of-11 targets over the past two weeks, good for 104 yards and a touchdown. The Texans need some offensive answers, with a running back room riddled with injury and a wide receiver room that’s down Nico Collins. Ogunbowale’s rushing share could dry up at any time, but he’s earned the right to play in hurry-up and third-down packages.
The Patriots are finally onboarding rookie QB Drake Maye, and maybe he’ll take another rookie along for the ride. Polk only had one catch last week but that was a failure from the New England offense and Jacoby Brissett — Polk’s route share and snap share are both on the rise. Perhaps Maye can pump some life into one of the weakest passing games in the league. At minimum, I’m willing to speculate that Polk will be the most targeted New England receiver on Sunday.
