The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
Additions: DeMar DeRozan, Jalen McDaniels, Devin Carter, Jordan McLaughlin, Orlando Robinson
Subtractions: Harrison Barnes, Chris Duarte, Davion Mitchell, Sasha Vezenkov, Kessler Edwards
When the Kings finally ended their 16-year postseason drought, they did so on the strength of an elite offense that ranked as one of the most efficient per-possession attacks ever. But Sacramento’s rise also came in the context of a conference in flux. A slew of stars — LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Devin Booker, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson — missed serious time with injuries. Some incumbent powerhouses underwent roster overhauls; some upstarts hadn’t yet advanced their rebuilds.
All that uncertainty left the door unlocked, and De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, head coach Mike Brown and Co. kicked it down. Last season, though, with many of those stars returning and newcomers like Oklahoma City and Houston making leaps, 10 of the West’s other 14 teams improved their win totals. Seven of them finished with more than the 48 victories Sacramento claimed in 2022-23; seven finished with higher offensive ratings than a Kings team that had made lighting up scoreboards (and beams) its stock in trade.
There were other factors: opponents being better prepared for their dribble-handoff-heavy offense; drop-offs from Barnes and Kevin Huerter (still out rehabbing his surgically repaired labrum); worse injury luck; declines in free-throw attempt rate and shots at the rim; etc. For the most part, though, that’s how you go from third to ninth, even with Sabonis and Fox combining for nearly 5,600 minutes of All-Star/All-NBA-level ball, and despite Brown coaxing the Kings’ first above-average defensive finish since 2006. The overall tide of talent rose and swept the Kings aside.
The search for more firepower reportedly included inquiries on the likes of Lauri Markkanen, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram before eventually landing on DeRozan, a certified bucket-getter who has averaged 20-plus points per game for 11 straight seasons. The 15-year vet gives Brown another bridge to efficient offense, whether flying solo in isolation or pairing with Sabonis — or, for that matter, Fox and re-signed bench boss Malik Monk — in the two-man game.
Over the years, DeRozan has sharpened his game into a streamlined instrument of destruction. Since 2019, only 13 NBA players have averaged at least 20 points and five assists per game with a true shooting percentage (which factors in 2-point, 3-point and free-throw accuracy) north of .590. The list is basically an All-NBA ballot. DeRozan’s on it.
Factor in his elite turnover rate and remarkable durability (he’s missed just 50 games over the past nine years and led the league in minutes last season), and even at age 35, DeRozan’s one hell of an offensive player. His expertise in the dark art of pump-faking defenders into the air and drawing contact ought to bolster Sacramento’s free-throw attempt rate, which plunged from fourth in 2022-23 to 25th last season. And his bona fides in “clutch” situations in which the score’s within five points in the final five minutes should help an offense that plummeted from first in crunch-time efficiency in 2022-23 to 18th last season.
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And yet: Will that be enough to make up for the awkward fit of swapping out a lower-usage, higher-volume-3-point-shooting forward like Barnes for a higher-usage, non-shooting replacement? It’ll be worth monitoring whether Sabonis, who has shot 36.4% from 3-point range as a King, starts letting them fly at the sort of elevated clip that Brown wants.
What about the likely defensive shortcomings of Sabonis-DeRozan lineups? A ton of responsibility will rest on point-of-attack disruptor Keon Ellis, a midseason revelation now in line to start next to Fox, and third-year forward Keegan Murray, who developed into a quality perimeter defender last season, to fill in the blanks.
If Brown can strike the right balance, Sacramento’s fate will rest with whether Fox, Sabonis and DeRozan have enough firepower to survive in a field featuring so many heavy hitters. The Kings need them to be great; in this West, “pretty good” isn’t good enough.
Sabonis, DeRozan, Fox and Monk share scoring and playmaking responsibilities beautifully; with bounce-back shooting seasons for Murray and Huerter, that’s a recipe for a return to top-five status on offense. Sacramento carries over its top-10 post-All-Star-break defense, with Ellis and Murray establishing themselves among the West’s best perimeter stoppers. That combination is enough for the franchise’s first 50-win season — and first playoff series victory — since the Chris Webber trade.
The project of integrating the more deliberate DeRozan into Sacramento’s sped-up system proves challenging, leaving the Kings stuck between stations in search of an offensive identity. The defense slides back toward the bottom third of the league, where it has rested for most of the past 20 years. A slightly above-average offense and a below-average defense produces a deeply average team — one incapable of climbing out of the play-in mix, of returning to the postseason and of giving the beam-lovers in California’s capital a new reason to believe.
The Kings have four players capable of finishing in the top 75 in fantasy. However, I think DeRozan’s arrival caps Murray’s upside and breakout potential. Murray is coming off a successful sophomore campaign where he improved in nearly every category and saw a 3% bump in usage to 18%. Murray said his role won’t change from last year, but going from the third to fourth option has to impact his touches and opportunities.
While he remains a 3-point specialist, Murray can be more impactful on defense. He is Sacramento’s best wing defender, so accumulating more stocks could counter the potential dip in offensive output. Murray’s seventh-round ADP is rich, but I’m inclined to make the move if he falls to the eighth. — Dan Titus
The Kings won 46 despite barely topping .500 in clutch games, most of their core pieces are either in their prime or approaching it, and they just added an All-Star-caliber offensive weapon. Give me the over. Light the friggin’ beam.
