At long last, the Davante Adams trade news finally dropped! The Raiders traded Davante Adams to the New York Jets on Tuesday morning.
As many had suspected, he’s headed to New York to reunite with his former quarterback, Aaron Rodgers — once again, wearing green, but this time for the Jets, as they look to get their 2-4 season back on track.
Let’s take a look at what the news means for your fantasy football teams.
There’s no doubt that it’s taken some time for Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson to establish a greater rapport, but in Weeks 5 and 6, fantasy football managers have gotten a taste of what they’re really capable of. Wilson has finished as a top-six fantasy receiver in each of those outings with 100+ receiving yards and a score, though he did it on the back of 33 total targets.
Obviously, Adams’ presence will mean a decreased target share for Wilson. In each of the seasons that Rodgers started and finished with Adams in the lineup (2016, 2018-2021), Adams was targeted on no fewer than 19.5% of his routes per PFF. In fact, he recorded a 29.5% or higher target rate on routes run in three of those five seasons. Simply put, Rodgers looks for Adams early and often, which will likely limit the ceiling of both of these wideouts moving forward.
The good news for Wilson? Though he will certainly lose targets to Adams, it might be good news for the efficiency of the targets he does receive. Since being drafted in 2021, Wilson has seen 83 targets while double-teamed in coverage — the fourth-most among wide receivers in that span.
What Adams gains in this Jets offense is, of course, the quality of the targets he does receive. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell have ranked 27th or lower among the 35 QBs with 250+ attempts over the past two seasons in accurate throw rate, per PFF; that’s translated to a low catchable target rate (70.6%) that ranks 62nd among 96 qualifying wide receivers.
What he loses in terms of “elite” target share, he’ll probably make up for in the overall quality of targets, while also benefitting from some of the attention Wilson receives from opposing defenses. Remember that note about Wilson’s high target rate against double teams in coverage? Adams doesn’t rank too far behind him in that metric, having had 77 such targets in the same window (seventh-most).
TL;DR — Each of these elite wide receivers should be looked at as weekly WR2 options with top-five upside. They’ll eat into each other’s overall volume but they should each benefit tremendously in terms open target rate.
Through the first six weeks of the season, Allen Lazard has been a thorn in the sides of fantasy managers thanks to a strong rapport with Rodgers. Lazard has accounted for the same number of end-zone targets (4) as Wilson in that span, reeling in two more touchdowns (albeit one on a Hail Mary) and just 45 fewer receiving yards.
Though Adams and Wilson are clearly the best wide receivers in this offense, Lazard will probably still have a role that does eat into some of the overall upside either of them pose individually. Lazard is clearly an integral part of Rodgers’ inner circle of trust, and that is worth a lot. Though he undoubtedly takes the biggest hit from Adams’ arrival, Lazard’s still likely to account for some work in the red zone at the very least, which can keep him in the mix as a weekly flex consideration in plus matchups.
Rookie tight end Brock Bowers has already dominated most conversations about the Raiders offense this year. Now, with Adams out of the mix for targets permanently, there’s little doubt that, barring injury, Bowers will lead this team in targets, receiving yards and possibly receiving touchdowns (though how many of those will be scored this year for a struggling offense is TBD).
Bowers currently leads all tight ends with 37 receptions and 384 receiving yards (the next highest totals being Trey McBride and George Kittle with 28 receptions and Dallas Goedert with 301 receiving yards). Given that most other “elite” tight end options are dealing with more competition for targets (Sam LaPorta with Amon-Ra St. Brown, McBride with Marvin Harrison Jr., Mark Andrews with Isaiah Likely), it seems like there may be no safer option at the position right now than Bowers.
So glad you asked, friend. This is a tricky one.
The most obvious winner in terms of potential for volume is Jakobi Meyers, who’s been a relatively underrated WR2 in the league and a steadying asset for the Raiders averaging 54.6 receiving yards per game this season. But he’s just that — a WR2.
Meyers’ usage early in the season was particularly intriguing having seen some increased work out of the slot in comparison to previous seasons through the first three weeks (66 snaps in the slot vs. 57 out wide). However, the absence of Adams will make that goal a bit more difficult to achieve, as they just need some warm bodies along the outside at this point; Meyers has had just 15 snaps from the slot in his past two games without Adams, while taking 59 snaps out wide.
Dating back to 2023, Meyers has averaged 12.1 yards per reception and 4.4 yards after the catch per reception from the slot in comparison to 10.9 YPR and 2.8 YAC/rec out wide, respectively.
Second-year wide receiver Tre Tucker will be in the mix as a matchup dependent flex play moving forward, having ranked inside the top 20 among wide receivers for routes run over the past three weeks (103), though he’s been targeted on just 10.7% of them. Given the low target volume he’s seen despite the opportunity, he should remain on fantasy benches most weeks.
