USD/CAD ended a nine-day losing streak yesterday but weak housing starts and manufacturing sales data today helped to solidify the case for a 50 basis point cut next week.
The Bank of Canada is rightfully worried about the strength of the economy but most of the discourse in the country has been about housing and mortgages. RBC economist Nathan Janzen argues labor market weakness is a greater concern than the mortgage renewals.
Meanwhile, the bob market is showing concerning signs:
RBC forecasts unemployment to rise from 5% now to 7% by early 2025 and notes that each 1 percentage point rise in unemployment typically lowers household disposable income by 0.5%.