For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for longer term Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (NYSE:GNTY) shareholders, since the share price is down 18% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 16%.
So let’s have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business’ progress.
Check out our latest analysis for Guaranty Bancshares
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the three years that the share price fell, Guaranty Bancshares’ earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 11% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 7% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.
The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We’re pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It’s always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free interactive report on Guaranty Bancshares’ earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Guaranty Bancshares, it has a TSR of -11% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
Guaranty Bancshares provided a TSR of 13% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that’s still a gain, and it’s actually better than the average return of 5% over half a decade This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we’ve discovered 2 warning signs for Guaranty Bancshares that you should be aware of before investing here.
