Included in breaking down Warriors’ playoff chances:
The Golden State Warriors have practically become synonymous with the NBA Playoffs during the Steph Curry era. In the 11 seasons since Curry’s breakout in 2011-12, the Warriors have made the playoffs nine times, racked up five conference championships, and won four NBA Finals.
But no trend lasts forever, and the 2024 Dubs have one of the worst winning percentages in a healthy Curry season since 2010-11. Golden State sits dead-last in the loaded Pacific division and 10th in the stacked-as-ever Western Conference. Could this be the season to finally fade Curry and company in the “make playoffs” futures market?
MORE: LeBron, MJ highlight oldest players to score 40-plus points
BetMGM seems to think Golden State missing the playoffs is the most likely scenario. As of April 8, the sportsbook had the Warriors at +175 to make the playoffs and -210 to miss them. The -210 translates to a 67.7-percent implied probability.
Obviously, plenty of factors come into play when assessing the odds of a team making it in: the Warriors’ remaining schedule, the current Western Conference standings, the NBA Play-In Tournament tiebreakers, and injuries.
Let’s weigh out all variables, and assess the Wariors’ BetMGM odds to make the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
The Warriors avoided the Play-In Tournament last season, sneaking in as the six-seed. They beat the third-seeded Kings in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs but fell in the semifinals to LeBron James and the Lakers (a Play-In team for the second time in three postseasons).
Now the Warriors and Lakers both project to finish the season in Play-In territory, with Los Angeles currently occupying the No. 9 seed and the Dubs 1.5 games behind L.A. in 10th. As we well know by now, the ninth and 10th seeds must defeat two different opponents to get to the playoffs.
The Warriors participated in the Play-In back in 2021, the first year the Page-McIntyre system was introduced to the NBA. As the eighth seed, they lost to (drumroll, please) — you guessed it — the Lakers! They then lost their second-chance Play-In against Ja Morant and the Grizzlies.
STREAM: Get NBA League Pass today for just $14.99! Seven-day free trial!
That disappointing finish didn’t keep Steve Kerr, Steph Curry, and the Warriors down for long. One year later, Golden State went 53-29 and won the NBA Finals over Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics.
It’s back to “win and get in” for Curry and company, as it looks like the Play-In is their only avenue to the playoffs. As Andrew Wiggins said after the Dubs’ huge win over Dallas recently, “We’re fighting for our lives.” Let’s analyze Golden State’s remaining schedule in the 2023-24 season.
| Date | Matchup | Opp. Record |
| April 9 | @ Lakers | 45-34 |
| April 11 | @ Blazers | 21-57 |
| April 12 | vs. Pelicans | 46-32 |
| April 14 | vs. Jazz | 29-49 |
That’s about as middle-of-the-pack as an end-of-season schedule can get in terms of difficulty. A road game against the Lakers is tough, of course. However, the Jazz and Blazers are both struggle-buses, and the Pelicans have recently felt the absence of top scorer Brandon Ingram (knee contusion).
According to Tankathon, the Warriors have the 13th-easiest remaining schedule. They do have a back-to-back — a road-home B2B — but Kerr’s squad has gone 10-5 with no rest and 9-4 with a rest disadvantage this season. This rest-of-season schedule tells us that the Warriors will almost assuredly be in the Play-In, as they are 4.5 games back of New Orleans as of April 2.
MORE: What LeBron James said about his status for rest of NBA season
Of course, things get tight toward the end of the season when conferences have as much parity as the West has right now. It’s important for us to know the NBA’s tiebreaker rules before we fire off any futures bets on the Warriors to make the playoffs.
Here’s the order of the NBA’s official tiebreaker rules, and how they could affect Golden State:
The Warriors have won two of their three games against the Lakers this season, so their April 9 meeting could be crucial to the Play-In seeding. Golden State has split its four-game season series with the Kings, so a tie between those squads in the standings would go to the divisional tiebreaker. Sacramento is 10-6 in divisional play this season, while the Dubs are just 6-9.
The only other projected Play-In team, the Suns, has a three-game cushion on Golden State and bested Steve Kerr’s squad 3-1 in their regular-season series. In a way, the Warriors might be better off avoiding the eighth seed so they can spare themselves another battle with former Dub Kevin Durant. Of course, the loser of the 7-8 matchup has a second chance to get in by beating the winner of the 9-10 matchup.
MORE: Explaining viral LeBron James ‘You Are My Sunshine’ TikTok meme
At 43-35, the Warriors have the 10th-best record in the Western Conference. They currently trail the Lakers in ninth place by 1.5 games and trail the Kings in eighth place by two games.
You can find the full Western Conference playoff picture below.
Records as of April 4
| Rank | Team | Record | GB |
| 1 | Timberwolves | 54-24 | — |
| 2 | Nuggets | 54-24 | — |
| 3 | Thunder | 53-25 | 1.0 |
| 4 | Clippers | 50-28 | 4.9 |
| 5 | Mavericks | 48-30 | 6.0 |
| 6 | Suns | 46-32 | 8.0 |
| 7 | Pelicans | 46-32 | 8.0 |
| 8 | Kings | 45-33 | 9.0 |
| 9 | Lakers | 45-34 | 9.5 |
| 10 | Warriors | 43-35 | 11.0 |
| — | Rockets | 38-40 | 16.0 |
As we already mentioned, the Warriors’ path out of the NBA Play-In Tournament and into the sixth seed seems extremely unlikely.
With Golden State relatively healthy and Curry always a threat to go nuclear in the postseason, the Warriors obviously have a punter’s chance to get into the playoffs. However, it’s not a bet we’re willing to make, as they would need to get by two of the Suns, Kings, or Lakers in order to get there.
We love what we’ve seen from Jonathan Kuminga, an athletic specimen who continues to develop as a legit NBA force. But far too many question marks exist with this team, and far too many veterans have taken a big step back this season.
Thompson has been a shell of his former Splash Brother self. Green continues to get himself into frustrated messes on the court. CP3 is still a great passer, but his offensive threat level has been drastically reduced in his age-38 season.
This season has featured the most stacked Western Conference in years, and in turn, Golden State’s chances at making a run at another chip seem murky at best. Save your money for a higher-value futures bet — you can make a modest investment in the Warriors once their seemingly inevitable rebuild starts this summer.
Best bet: Fade the Warriors (+175) to make the playoffs. If anything, bet Golden State (-210) to miss the playoffs — but there’s little value there, as you would only profit a little under $24 on a $50 winning wager. Just fade it and read our other article on why you should bet on the Lakers (-115) to make the playoffs instead.
