(Bloomberg) — Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris’s party was locked in a virtual dead heat with Sinn Fein in the general election, according to the official exit poll, suggesting his decision to go to the country early did not go as planned.
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Harris’s Fine Gael won 21% of first-preference votes in Friday’s election, according to the poll commissioned by state broadcaster RTE and others. The main opposition party Sinn Fein won 21.1%. Fine Gael’s coalition partner in the last government, Fianna Fail, was on 19.5.%. There was a margin of error of 1.4%.
The premier called the vote, which wasn’t due to be held until March, after his party surged in opinion polls since he became Taoiseach in April. That, plus a large giveaway budget in October and a slide in support for Sinn Fein, made it seem like the optimal time to go to the polls.
A gaffe-laden campaign dented Harris’s momentum. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail going back into government is still seen as the most likely outcome — both have ruled out working with Sinn Fein.
But a tight race is not what Harris intended, especially if he emerges with less support than his rivals.
For Sinn Fein, forming a government looks difficult even if it wins the popular vote. Without the option of a coalition with either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, there is no clear route to power without dramatically increasing its seat haul.
Instead a repeat of 2020, when Sinn Fein narrowly won the popular vote but Fine Gael and Fianna Fail formed the government, still looks likely. But emerging with less support than rivals would still represent a blow for Harris.
In Ireland’s electoral system, a version of proportional representation with voters ranking preferred candidates, parties need to win 88 seats for a majority in the 174-seat Dail, or parliament.
But no party has fielded enough candidates to reach that threshold on its own, meaning some form of coalition is inevitable.
Counting begins at 9 a.m. on Saturday, with a clearer picture likely to emerge by the afternoon or later. Forming a coalition could take weeks of negotiations.
It’s not clear which smaller party or grouping Fine Gael and Fianna Fail would bring in if they fall short of a majority together. Their coalition partner last time, the Greens, are expected to have fewer seats this time.
For the two incumbent centrist parties, the support of a smaller center-left group would be ideal, but that could be scuppered by increasing support for independent candidates who ran on anti-immigration tickets.
