Sunday’s Buffalo Bills-Los Angeles Rams game featured some things you’ll rarely see in the NFL, including one important one: A losing quarterback saw his chances of winning NFL MVP dramatically improve.
Josh Allen was so good on Sunday that he might have clinched his first MVP award in a loss. Given how much weight MVP voters put on being the quarterback on a No. 1 seeded team, Allen jumping far ahead in line of the MVP odds despite a loss is notable. It might be unprecedented.
Allen is now a heavy -400 favorite to win NFL MVP at BetMGM after his historic six-touchdown game. He was the first player in NFL history to score three rushing touchdowns and have three passing touchdowns in a regular season game. He also had the best game for a quarterback in Yahoo fantasy football history.
The Bills lost 44-42 to the Rams and that was a damaging result in their chase for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. But the MVP race might be over after what happened in that game.
The -400 odds for Allen put him close to being a lock to win the award, in the eyes of oddsmakers. The implied odds for a -400 favorite is 80%. That leaves the rest of the field a 20% shot with a month to go, if you believe in the odds. You’d have to bet $400 on Allen to win MVP to win $100 at his current odds.
Allen was already gaining in the race and last week was a -225 favorite. As of last week, there was more money on Allen at BetMGM to win MVP than any other player. Allen got 18.6% of the money bet on MVP.
Those Allen bettors have to feel pretty good now after his big jump forward.
Allen is having a very good season, with 23 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns. The Bills have already clinched the AFC East title. The Bills are two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs for the top record in the AFC after Sunday’s loss, and that’s usually bad for MVP hopefuls. Of the past 15 MVPs, 12 were quarterbacks from a No. 1 seed. That streak includes seven No. 1 seed QBs in a row. But Patrick Mahomes isn’t having a typically great season, which opens the door for Allen.
After Sunday’s game, it will be hard to overtake him.
There are only three other candidates with MVP odds shorter than 35-to-1. A late injury to Allen could change the race, as it did for Carson Wentz in 2017 or Jalen Hurts in 2022. And there are ways for each of the three to make a push:
Saquon Barkley (+400): The path for Barkley remains the same. He’s on pace for 2,122 rushing yards, which would break Eric Dickerson’s 40-year old record of 2,105 in a season. If he gets that record and the Eagles get the No. 1 seed, it could be a factor. Voters like QBs off No. 1 seeds, so maybe they’d value a record-setting running back from a top seed if the best QB (Allen) doesn’t finish atop his conference.
Lamar Jackson (+1200): Jackson has had another remarkable season. Jackson is the one quarterback who could play so well in the final four weeks he could overcome Allen. Jackson’s big problem is his team’s 8-5 record. The Ravens trail the Steelers by two games in the AFC North. Good luck winning MVP if your team isn’t even a division winner. But if Jackson gets hot down the stretch and the Ravens win the AFC North, then maybe he has a shot. Bonus points for him if the Ravens end up with at least the same record as the Bills.
Jared Goff (+1400): Goff still remains on the list for one reason, and that’s the voters’ history of wanting to give MVP to a QB from a No. 1 seed. If the Lions finish with a record like 16-1, there could be some default votes for Goff. He has very good numbers too, with a 109.1 passer rating, so votes for him could be justified. Goff’s only shot is if he plays well the rest of the season and the Lions are the NFC’s No. 1 seed. He also has a chance to outplay Allen this weekend when the Lions host the Bills.
There are still four games to go and we’ve seen MVP races shift in the final month of a season before. But the odds to start this week make it clear: It’s Allen’s award to lose.
