Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last week: LeBron James’ Lakers are stuck in the middle]
The NBA Cup field is down to four teams. As much as we respect the collection of talent on the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets — and they are good teams (maybe not championship good but “could win the NBA Cup” good) — the question of who is the best player left in the tournament is two names long.
The Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the two favorites to win NBA Cup MVP, according to BetMGM. They also join the Dallas Mavericks’ Luka Dončić and Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokić as favorites to win the league’s regular-season MVP award.
Antetokounmpo is an establishment superstar, a two-time MVP, chasing his third. The 30-year-old has been a top-four MVP candidate since the 2018-19 season, when Gilgeous-Alexander made his NBA debut. Gilgeous-Alexander, runner-up to Jokić for last year’s MVP, is new to this conversation. To even have the discussion, measuring Gilgeous-Alexander against Antetokounmpo, is a credit to the 26-year-old’s rise.
But let us have it now: Who is enjoying the superior season?
Traditionally speaking, there is no clear statistical difference between the two.
Antetokounmpo (22 games): 32.7 PTS (61/18/61), 11.4 REB, 6.0 AST (3.5 TO), 1.5 BLK, 0.6 STL
Gilgeous-Alexander (24 games): 30.2 PTS (52/34/86), 5.4 REB, 6.3 AST (2.7 TO), 1.8 STL, 1.0 BLK
The numbers reflect their different styles. Antetokounmpo is a wrecking ball, wreaking havoc at the rim on both ends of the court. Gilgeous-Alexander is a carving knife, slicing into lanes on either side of the floor and serving everyone.
If you want to argue that Antetokounmpo’s rebounding is a difference-maker here, as is his length on defense, where that can go unnoticed in the box score, I am with you. I also think Gilgeous-Alexander’s three-level scoring is as impactful, and he happens to be the driving force of both an elite offense that commits the fewest turnovers per game and an elite defense that forces the most turnovers per game. More on that later.
If we are nitpicking, Gilgeous-Alexander has scored or assisted on 1,108 points through his team’s first 24 games. Antetokounmpo has scored or assisted on 1,076 points. And if we run them through our Points Defended metric, Gilgeous-Alexander has saved his team 83 points. Antetokounmpo has saved his 58.
That is a total difference of 57 points in Gilgeous-Alexander’s favor, enough to make an issue out of Antetokounmpo’s two rest-filled absences this season. (Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to miss a game.)
As for advanced statistics, we could argue all day about who leads who in which category.
Antetokounmpo: 31.5 PER, 63.0 TS%, 37.1 USG%, 3.8 WS, 8.6 BPM, 2.0 VORP
Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.6 PER, 62.6 TS%, 33.2 USG%, 4.8 WS, 10.2 BPM, 2.6 VORP
For every advanced metric that Gilgeous-Alexander leads Antetokounmpo you can find one in which Antetokounmpo leads Gilgeous-Alexander. If you ask for my two favorites, Estimated Plus-Minus and Daily Plus-Minus, Gilgeous-Alexander leads both.
I am not going to lean either way on this one. What I find interesting is this: Gilgeous-Alexander has a markedly lower usage rate than Antetokounmpo but considerably more win shares — the league’s most, in fact. What does that say about their teams? And what do their teams say about each’s impact?
Everyone understands the Thunder (19-5) are a better team. They lead a stacked Western Conference by 2.5 games. The Bucks (13-11) are struggling to maintain a guaranteed playoff seed in the weaker Eastern Conference. Oklahoma City is beating its opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions this season, a margin that would rank second in NBA history behind Michael Jordan’s 72-win Chicago Bulls (13.4). Milwaukee’s net rating (1.1) only climbed north of zero in recent weeks, as it beat up on a light schedule.
The Thunder are 11-5 against teams with winning records. The Bucks are 3-8 against teams .500 or better.
By extension in a comparison this close it should follow that Gilgeous-Alexander’s teammates are better than Antetokounmpo’s. And I think that is true for the most part. But we should not discredit Milwaukee.
Damian Lillard is an eight-time All-Star. Khris Middleton is a three-time All-Star who only recently returned to the rotation. Brook Lopez is a one-time All-Star who has consistently competed for All-Defensive recognition in recent years. A.J. Green is a flamethrower. Bobby Portis finished third in last year’s Sixth Man of the Year voting. Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright were lauded on low salaries. Milwaukee is not without talent to lead, even if it is best recognized for past performance.
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Not so in Oklahoma City, where Jalen Williams is only now realizing his All-Star potential, as was Chet Holmgren before a pelvic fracture. Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Lu Dort are All-Defensive-caliber complements. The Thunder’s flamethrower is Isaiah Joe. They are rich with developmental success stories throughout the roster, and they have the draft capital to upgrade whenever and wherever they choose.
It should also follow, then, that Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder are better without him than Antetokounmpo’s Bucks are without him. And this is where the wicket gets sticky. Oklahoma City is 12.9 points per 100 meaningful possessions better when its superstar is on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. Milwaukee is four points per 100 possessions better when its superstar is on the court.
Antetokounmpo is a champion. Do not forget. He has a handful of his championship teammates and swapped one of his best for Lillard. We can debate the merits of dealing Jrue Holiday for Lillard, but in terms of pedigree the Bucks have it in spades. The culture is on shaky ground, cycling through coaches, losers of three straight playoff series, though injuries may be to blame. Regardless, we know who the Bucks are, withering around Antetokounmpo, unless the rest of this tournament can change our minds.
Conversely, there is no certified future Hall of Famer for Gilgeous-Alexander to share his burden. The Thunder are figuring it out on their own in real time, and they are looking to him. Case in point: Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 51% of the Thunder’s points in the clutch this season, opposed to Antetokounmpo, who is scoring 27% of the Bucks’ points when the score is within five points in a game’s final minutes.
We also know who Antetokounmpo is: a battering ram. He scores 79% of his points either inside of 3 feet or at the free-throw line and prefers the former. Opponents leave him open outside the restricted area, where he is shooting 42% on 8.3 attempts per game. That is 0.86 points per possession. You can build a wall opposite Antetokounmpo. He will find his way through, but you may hold him off long enough to win.
It is why the Bucks chased Lilllard, to balance the floor from what Antetokounmpo’s wall had wrought. What had been a top-five offense under former Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer has become a middling outfit in two of the past three seasons, including this one, as opposing defenses have solved this riddle.
I just do not think you can slow Gilgeous-Alexander the same way, at least not yet. If you could Williams would not be so good. Nor would Holmgren or anyone on the Thunder. Because Gilgeous-Alexander can score from every level, the defense never leaves him free. They have to stop him from getting to the rim (where he too is shooting 73%), keep him from the midrange and respect his 3-point jump shot.
The only way to slow him is if he slows himself, which he will often do, because the game is played to his pace. There is no tactic he cannot solve that does not involve a double team. Both Antetokounmpo and Gilgeous-Alexander will still get to their spots; it is just that Gilgeous-Alexander has more spots to get to.
Determination: Fact. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player left in the NBA Cup.
