Week 15 brought some very peculiar running back performances. While big names — like Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon and Derrick Henry — wildly underperformed, random backs offered top-12 performances … likely on your fantasy bench.
What should we make of big performances from Tyjae Spears, Jerome Ford and Justice Hill? Are they simply one-week wonders or do they offer true start-worthy value next week?
Ford is the most clear-cut startable back from this group moving forward. Nick Chubb broke his foot and will be out for the remainder of the season. Ford was the only other back to touch the ball on Sunday, and that’s been the trend over the past several weeks. D’Onta Foreman has been a healthy scratch and hasn’t played since Week 8. Pierre Strong hasn’t had more than two touches in a single game since Week 7.
Ford is the clear next man up and should be the lead back moving forward.
If you look at the Browns’ run game this season, I can understand why you would want nothing to do with Ford. Chubb has been the lead back since he returned in Week 7 and has had zero success on the ground outside of one two-touchdown performance against Pittsburgh. The Browns had been extremely pass-happy with Jameis Winston typically throwing over 40 attempts per game and having the third-worst rushing yards and the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the league.
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen Ford as the lead back this season. While it can serve as a reference point, the Browns were inconsistent in their usage, occasionally giving the bulk of carries to Foreman despite the fact that Ford was clearly outperforming him. The Browns are a bit peculiar in terms of their choices, so they could put Ford in a committee. However, given the matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals and the lack of touches from other backs over the past two months, I trust he’ll have enough volume next week to be fantasy-relevant. The Bengals have one of the most generous defenses across the board in the league (we’ll talk a bit more about that later). Ford should be ranked as a low-end RB2 in Week 16.
Spears’ Week 15 definitely needs some breaking down to assess his performance and potential moving forward. Spears had just four carries for five yards but did get a rushing touchdown — an odd but impressive goal-line score. He got the touchdown early in the game after Tony Pollard had a goal-line touchdown. It’s worth noting so that we understand the context: the touchdown came when Pollard was healthy and was the result of the Titans swapping players for change of pace.
There’s also the added caveat that Pollard was injured during the game. He left the game with an ankle injury but returned and did play. Pollard had been dealing with an injury heading into the week, so it’s possible this is the same injury he had been nursing. Since he returned, you won’t see a questionable tag by his name.
Pollard wasn’t present on the Titans’ final two drives. This didn’t appear to be due to injury, rather the Titans were chasing points and pivoting aggressively towards the pass. Spears benefited from being used as a pass-catcher on those late drives and the bulk of Spears’ fantasy production came through the air: six receptions on seven targets for 87 yards and a receiving touchdown.
The fact that Pollard returned to the game and that most of Spears’ production came from the Titans straight-up abandoning the run means Spears might be fool’s gold that only benefits if Pollard’s injury flares up during the week and he can’t suit up. If Pollard is healthy in Week 16, in what should be a far more competitive game against Indianapolis followed by another competitive game against Jacksonville, the Titans would likely shift back to normal usage with Pollard seeing the bulk of the carries and being the only usable fantasy asset out of the backfield.
Hill’s RB1 performance was fun and absolutely random, but technically not a one-week wonder. It’s more of a “this is going to happen; it’s just a matter of if you’re going to catch it.” Hill is no stranger to popping up with big receiving days. He had an RB1 performance in Week 4 against Buffalo, RB2 performances against Tampa Bay and the Chargers and often falls into RB3-RB4 territory.
Quite frankly, you can stare at the numbers all day but there’s no true regularity to his stronger performances. They can come in a blowout or a close game. It’s a Hail Mary play that can hit, and if it doesn’t, it won’t hurt that bad.
Next week’s matchup is against Pittsburgh and we’ve actually seen this matchup before. It was a very low-scoring, close game where Hill had decent receiving volume and finished as RB29 with 6.1 fantasy points in half-PPR. Nevertheless, he should remain on fantasy benches unless you’re absolutely desperate or in extremely deep leagues.
I think we should also revisit a couple of backs who have pushed their way up the depth chart into reliable set-it-and-forget-it assets. It’s time that fantasy managers accept these two late-season RB1s as true, unquestioned locks.
This is a strange one for me to write about since I have been a Chase Brown truther from day one. Brown is simply achieving his destiny that was set from the get-go. All he needed was the opportunity. Brown hasn’t finished outside of the top 12 since Week 8 when Zach Moss was injured, and he should remain there for the rest of the season.
Pulse check: What makes Brown a permanent top-12 back?
Brown has everything going in his favor, and I truly mean everything. He is the only back the Bengals trust. Since Week 9, a total of three touches have gone to a back not named Chase Brown. It’s perhaps the most dramatic touch disparity in the entire league. The combination of Cincinnati’s prolific offense and horrific defense means Brown has ample scoring opportunities and is constantly a strong volume play. His receiving upside means he can never be scripted out of games, and the Bengals are not afraid to send him downfield.
He is not simply a check-down back. He’s truly a fail-proof running back.
Dowdle doesn’t get the same level of ringing endorsement that I gave Brown, but he’s absolutely reached the point of being a weekly must-start.
Week 15 was an odd game. It was the first game where Dowdle wasn’t targeted. However, his volume on the ground remained strong. Since the Cowboys finally committed to Dowdle as the RB1, he’s had a minimum of 19 touches over the past four weeks and a minimum of 86 yards on the ground. This week, he had 25 carries for 149 yards — a career high.
Pulse check: How much does the Cowboys’ rest-of-season schedule affect Dowdle?
Next week, the Cowboys get the Buccaneers. It’s not necessarily an excellent matchup against the run, but it’s decent enough to feel comfortable with Dowdle. If the Bucs dominate the Cowboys, it could also force increased receiving work which would benefit Dowdle’s fantasy production. Week 17 will likely see Dowdle pushed a bit back in the rankings against a tough Philadelphia run defense in a matchup he faced back in Week 10. In that game, he scored fewer than 10 fantasy points on just 12 carries. However, it should be noted that was before the Cowboys’ commitment to him as the RB1. He’ll likely see a strong workload and have an RB2 floor.
