It’s safe to say more places in Canada are in better positions to see a white Christmas this year than in 2023, which featured an incredibly mild December overall.
Winter has showed up in the first half of December across the country, with most of Canada already seeing one or several snowfall events. But the big question is this: Will it stick around? And could there be more snow on the way?
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Below is our first look at who has the best odds of seeing a white Christmas in Canada.
White Christmas odds in the West are either zero per cent or 100 per cent, with a few cities in between.
In B.C., a parade of mild Pacific storms will bring abundant rainfall to low elevations across the South and Sunshine Coast, leading up to and on Christmas Day.
Vancouver and Victoria, B.C.: Zero per cent chance.
The Interior of B.C. will depend on freezing-level forecasts next week.
At this point in time, mild air has the edge, so white Christmas chances are low at the valley bottoms.
The mild weather will sneak over the Rockies leading up to Christmas, keeping chances low for a white Christmas this year. Above-freezing temperatures are forecast in the week leading up to the big day, likely melting Calgary’s recent snow and regions southwest of there.
It’s the opposite story in the rest of Western Canada, though. A white Christmas is all but guaranteed. Cold, below-zero-degree air will hold on for the majority of the Prairies, allowing for the current snowpack to stick around.
Here’s where the forecast for a white Christmas gets tricky.
It will really feel like winter in Ontario and Quebec leading up to Christmas. Expect an active and cold pattern forecast this weekend and beyond.
White Christmas in Ontario and Quebec will hinge on weekend snow and a weak snow chance near Christmas Eve.
On Friday, Dec. 20, snow from the Prairies moves into Great Lakes region and eastern Ontario. Through Friday, 2-5+ cm of snow is forecast for Windsor, Toronto and Ottawa, Ont.
The chilliest air of the season for many will help keep the snow on the ground through the weekend, for those who see it.
Come Christmas Eve, the forecast will be a make-or-break situation for southern Ontario. A weak trough will bring additional snowfall chances across the region. However, near-freezing temperatures will risk a rain-snow mix, which could significantly reduce white Christmas chances along Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shores.
As of now, Toronto’s odds are 50-50, or a medium chance of a white Christmas. Ottawa trends high due to below-freezing temperatures holding on through the big day. Meanwhile, the mild air puts Windsor’s white Christmas chances at low.
Timmins and Thunder Bay, Ont., also have a high chance due to a reasonable snowpack and the likelihood of cold temperatures sticking around up to Christmas.
Montreal, Que., has a low chance of a white Christmas due to no existing snowpack and low snowfall chances, but not zero, heading into Christmas. Chances are high in Quebec city, Que., because of the existing snow pack and incoming cold, likely keeping the necessary 2 cm on the ground.
Atlantic Canada’s chances are low to medium, with the exception of Labrador.
Chance for snow are coming this weekend for the Maritimes and western Newfoundland, but it will be storm-track dependent. Halifax, N.S., and St. John’s, N.L., are questionable for snowfall with this system, and could stay on the rainy side (again). Much of Nova Scotia and the Avalon Peninsula will see low chances for a white Christmas.
However, folks who do see snow in New Brunswick, P.E.I. and western Newfoundland will keep it, thanks to the cold air arriving before Christmas.
With files from Rachel Modestino, Jaclyn Whittal and Dr. Doug Gillham, meteorologists at The Weather Network, and Nathan Howes, a digital journalist at The Weather Network.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest updates on the holiday snowfall report.
