Widely regarded as the most important position in professional sports, evaluating quarterbacks such as Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks may be nearly as difficult as actually playing the position at the highest level, especially considering the scrutiny that comes with the record-breaking contracts that continue to be handed out to franchise signal callers across the league.
For one, traditional statistics such as passing yards that used to be viewed as one of the most important metrics in quarterback play have decreased in value over the years, being viewed as “garbage” numbers that don’t necessarily lead to winning football games. As a replacement, the ascension of analytics in sports has had a substantial impact on how players at all positions are assessed through advanced statistics, with quarterback not being an exception.
As just a few examples, NFL evaluators now have metrics such as ESPN’s QBR rating, NFL Next Gen Stats’ Completion Over Expectation Rate, and Pro Football Focus’ Big Time Throws, among many others. With so many different statistics to work with coupled with film assessment, quarterback evaluation comes with no shortage of subjectivity, creating heated debates over which players rank among the league’s best.
Still, certain metrics should be prioritized in today’s game, which should help assess which players offer the best performance on the dollar at the NFL’s most important position. To help bridge the analytical gap grading out quarterbacks in terms of overall value to their respective teams, I’ve invented the “Bang For Buck QB Index,” which accounts for production as well as the player’s yearly annual salary.
The Bang For Buck QB Index comprises of nine different statistical metrics, including passing yardage, touchdowns, interception rate, passer rating, and game-winning drives, which help illustrate which players come through most in the clutch. The formula also prioritizes several recently-developed advanced metrics, including success rate and the aforementioned Completion Over Expectation Rate and Big Time Throws, for quarterbacks with at least 300 passing attempts over the past two seasons and an annual salary (APY) north of $20 million per year.
Digging into each of those nine statistics for 19 qualified players who meet those criteria – players on rookie contracts are not included due to their obvious value on lower wage, slotted deals – the quarterback who ranks first in each category receives 100 points. The remainder of the rankings are scored on intervals of five points, with the final player receiving only 10 points. In the case of a tie, players with the same numbers receive the same grade.
Looking back at the previous two seasons, which quarterbacks offer the most “Bang for Buck” in the NFL? And where does Smith fit into the equation for Seattle? Here’s a deep dive into all nine statistics:
While passing yards are far from the best metric for assessing quarterback play and often times are impacted by sheer volume rather than effectiveness or efficiency, there’s still something to be said for players who consistently rack up 4,000 or more passing yards year after year. Over the course of a full season, these yards offer more value than individual games.
Not surprisingly, Chiefs superstar Patrick Mahomes has led the league in yardage since 2022, with Lions quarterback Jared Goff and Bills quarterback Josh Allen just behind him. In fourth and fifth place, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence cap off the top five, receiving 85 and 80 points respectively. All five of those players have either been All-Pros or Pro Bowlers multiple times.
In today’s pass happy NFL, the rules have been skewed to help receivers get open, which certainly has benefited quarterbacks in the accuracy department. Nonetheless, completing passes against NFL defenses remains a major challenge, and players who consistently complete more than 65 percent of their passes tend to have greater success helping their team win games.
Over the past two seasons, no quarterback has been better at hitting his receivers on the money than Cowboys signal caller Dak Prescott, who has completed 68.2 percent of his passes in that span. Behind him, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Smith rank second and third, earning 95 and 90 points apiece on the “Bang For Buck” scale. Rounding out the top five, Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had enough pass attempts to qualify for fourth and Mahomes finished a stellar fifth.
At the end of the day, quarterbacks will always be judged primarily on how many touchdowns they throw, as scoring points obviously presents the best way to win football games. At the same time, quarterback play isn’t always reflected in this stat either, especially for teams with effective run games in the red zone that can cut down on opportunities for six points through the air.
One of the most prolific passers in NFL history, Mahomes once again comes out on top with 68 touchdown passes over the past two years to notch 100 points. Behind him, Allen, Prescott, and Goff rank second through fourth, while Burrow still managed to finish fifth overall despite missing a significant chunk of the 2023 season due to injury. Tying with Burrow for fifth, Smith once again finds his way into the top five with 50 touchdown passes since becoming Seattle’s starter for 80 points.
Taking into account raw passing volume, interception rate offers a better overall viewpoint of how well quarterbacks take care of the football compared to simple interception numbers. Players who throw 500 or more times per season are more likely to throw more picks, but that doesn’t always reflect careless or sloppy play. The interception rate per 100 passes, however, paints a more accurate story in regard to consistently smart decision making.
Over the past two seasons, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has been the best at keeping the ball away from opponents, posting an excellent 1.5 percent interception rate. Just behind him, Goff has cut down on his turnovers compared to earlier in his career and for all the criticism he receives, Jones has not been apt to throwing a high percentage of picks either, ranking second and third respectively. Closing out the top five, Ravens MVP Lamar Jackson and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray posted 1.8 percent interception rates, while Burrow, Lawrence, and Smith sat just behind them at 1.9 percent.
One of the staples of traditional NFL statistics, passer rating has been expanded upon over the years, including ESPN’s QBR. In terms of importance, the metric has plenty of holes that can be picked apart by analysts, but at the same time, there’s still plenty of value considering passer rating derives from completion percentage, yards per attempt, percentage of touchdowns thrown per attempt, and percentage of interceptions per attempt, all relevant numbers for quarterback performance.
Thanks in large part to his accuracy and relatively high yards per attempt (7.5), Prescott once again comes out on top over the past two years with a 100.0 passer rating. Mahomes and Goff sit in second and third, while Jackson and Burrow narrowly beat out Smith for the fourth and fifth spots with 97.9 and 97.1 passer ratings respectively.
A more recent addition to the quarterback evaluation checklist, per Pro Football Reference, success rate is calculated by adding passes with at least 40 percent of needed yardage on first down, passes with at least 60 percent of needed yardage on second down, and passes that net a first down on third or fourth down divided by the number of pass attempts plus the number of times sacked. Players who score well in this category tend to complete a high level of passes, move the chains effectively, and limit sacks.
Playing behind a quality offensive line and completing passes at the highest mark in the league, Prescott once again finishes first in this category, while Mahomes and Allen rank second and third just behind him. Goff and Burrow wrap up the top five with Rams starter Matthew Stafford coming in sixth and Smith ranking seventh, likely held back by his pedestrian third down numbers and issues behind an injury-marred offensive line.
Regardless of era, the best quarterbacks deliver with the game on the line, and even though game-winning drives can be viewed as more of a team statistic, orchestrating game-winning drives must be part of the equation when evaluating signal callers. They have the ball in their hands every play and particularly in two-minute drill situations, they have to be able to execute no huddle, manage the clock with timeouts, and relay calls to receivers and linemen in the heat of the moment.
Over the past two seasons, no quarterback has been better at coming through in the final moments than Smith, who tied with Allen and Cousins engineering eight game-winning drives while throwing an NFL record seven go-ahead fourth quarter touchdowns last year. All three of those players get 100 points in this category, while former Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson comes in fourth and Mahomes, Goff, and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts tie for fifth.
One of the most exciting additions to the advanced statistics menu, NFL Next Gen Stats has created a way to further illustrate the accuracy of quarterbacks, rewarding those who manage to complete difficult passes at a higher rate. Evaluating every single pass attempted by each quarterback over the course of the season, the analytics team produces expected completion rates and in comparison, they increase that percentage with completions that weren’t expected to be completed or decrease the percentage when players miss on completable passes.
Taking the average CPOE for each qualified quarterback over the past two seasons, Falcons veteran Kirk Cousins has been the best at exceeding expectations, narrowly edging Smith to take first place. With Cousins and Smith significantly ahead of the rest of the field, Hurts, Prescott, and Burrow round out the top five with each demonstrating a knack for threading the needle and connecting with receivers in tight coverage.
Taking their own spin on crediting quarterbacks for throw difficulty, Pro Football Focus unearthed the Big Time Throws metric, emphasizing the distance of completions as a major part of the equation. Per their website, Big Time Throws are “passes with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” They break these throws down by distance as well, creating more specifics for assessing quarterback play.
In the “Bang For Buck” index, however, the total number of Big Time Throws will be used for a more holistic approach to overall quarterback play. Not surprisingly, Allen comes in first thanks to his cannon arm, edging Smith in a close battle between two of the game’s premier deep ball throwers. Behind them, Lawrence surprisingly has been a proficient downfield thrower despite not always having the best supporting cast and comes in third, while Mahomes and Prescott finish in fourth and fifth overall.
Like any formula used to assess quarterback play, the “Bang For Buck” QB Index isn’t infallible. Not every great quarterback is included due to the absence of players on a rookie contract or veteran backups who may have started a handful of games, but the point of the metric revolves around discovering which signal callers offer the best overall value at the highest-paid position in the NFL.
After scoring each of the nine categories, adding the totals for each player, dividing them by their annual salary, and multiplying the result by 100, no player has been a better value under center than Smith has been for the Seahawks. With a salary averaging $25 million per year on his current contract, his performance has been among the best in the league in nearly every metric since 2022, whether traditional or more modernized advanced statistics, leading to a 0.00304 score that is nearly double Prescott’s score in second place.
Scanning the top five, Smith and Prescott sit above Mahomes, Allen, and Cousins, which puts Seattle’s veteran quarterback in pretty good company. While his future as the starter in the Pacific Northwest has continued to be debated, in large part due to his age and the decision to trade for Sam Howell, the numbers point to him being a far superior quarterback to the national narrative. At minimum, he’s given his team the most bang for their salary cap buck in two years at the helm.
