MLB (1 Unit) Boston Red Sox/Miami Marlins Over 8 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on NESN
It’s a pitcher’s park in Miami, so totals tend to be pretty low like this. But these aren’t great pitchers, and I think these teams find their way over the number tonight. Brayan Bello for Boston has really struggled, turning in an awful June with an 8.25 ERA and 2.04 WHIP, plus his starts this season are 11-2-1 over this total.
For Miami’s Trevor Rogers, home has not been that kind to him as he’s posted a 5.00 ERA in LoanDepot Park, and his starts there are 6-3 over tonight’s number. That’s been a theme in Miami, as games there have the best over record of any park in MLB at 30-13-1 to the over. It’s usually thanks to low totals like this one, and after these teams went for 11 runs last night, I expect to see another over here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds Team Total Over 3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on YES
Regression finally came for Carlos Rodon, and it hit hard. The Yankee lefty has given up 21 runs in his past 3 starts, and opposing teams went over this team total in 4 of his 5 June starts. The Reds should be no different tonight as they’re much better against lefties like Rodon, hitting them 23 points better than righties and ranking 4th in scoring. Cincinnati is also a better hitting team and produce more runs per game on the road this season, so look for them to clear this small number again tonight.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Chicago Cubs First 5 Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on MLB Network
Going against Phillies pitching has not been a great idea this season, but there are cracks forming. For Zach Wheeler it’s the home/road splits, with his ERA nearly 2.5 times higher in road games than in Philadelphia. He’s been much more prone to blowup games on the road, including just a couple weeks ago. Pitching in a small park like Wrigley, on a night when the wind is not helping pitchers, could spell trouble again. So look for this Cubs lineup that’s better against lefties like Wheeler to get a couple across in the early innings.
Bonus Bets: (0.25 Unit) Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135) & (0.1 Unit) Over 0.5 Home Runs (+520; Odds via DraftKings)
If the Cubs are going to score early in this one it will be behind Bellinger’s bat. The Chicago center fielder has 13 career at-bats against Zach Wheeler, with 5 hits. All of those hit have gone over the fence, creating a ridiculous 1.923 OPS, so expect some solid contact from Bellinger again tonight.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2363-2175 ATS (+91.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
