Happy Fourth of July! What better way to celebrate the anniversary of America’s independence than by watching and betting on the Cubs vs. Phillies at historic Wrigley Field (2:20 p.m. ET, Fubo)!? Baseball in the afternoon, fireworks in the evening — what more could you need?
The Sporting News has you covered with a full betting prediction for this Independence Day clash, including matchup details, final score prediction, best bets, top player props, and more.
Let’s get right to our betting preview for Cubs vs. Phillies, and dish out our favorite picks for this Wrigley Field matinee. Good luck, and have a happy and healthy holiday with friends and family!
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
| Team | Starting pitcher | ML | RL | O/U |
| Phillies @ | C. Sanchez (6-3, 2.41 ERA) | -135 | -1.5 (+140) |
O7.5 (-110) |
| Cubs | J. Taillon (4-4, 3.03 ERA) | +105 | +1.5 (-165) |
U7.5 (-110) |
The Cubs enter the holiday as slight home underdogs, as the Phillies continue to barrel through the National League. Philadelphia has won seven of its past 10 games and owns the best record in the majors (56-29), and now hands the ball to dominant fourth-year breakout pitcher Christopher Sanchez.
Jameson Taillon and Chicago will be looking to play spoiler, but it won’t be an easy challenge for a club sitting dead-last in the NL Central with a 39-47 record. The Cubs have gone 3-7 over their past 10 contests, the exact opposite fate that Philly has enjoyed during that time frame.
Talk about a meeting of polar-opposite teams. The Cubs have shown some signs of life lately, but they’re quite simply in a different stratosphere than the red-hot Phillies. Philadelphia has exceeded all expectations through the first three-plus months of the season, with a tremendous combination of stud pitching, timely offense, and dependable defense.
Despite the Cubbies playing at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, the Phillies at -1.5 feel like one of the more comfortable run-line favorites of the day. They’re 20-17 on the run line in away games this season, while Chicago’s 14-27 run-line record at home ranks second-worst in the majors (the Red Sox are 14-29 on the RL at Fenway).
Beyond that, Philly has the more dominant starting pitcher, a stronger lineup top to bottom, and a more reliable defense and bullpen. The Cubs have a .227 team batting average and don’t have anyone in their lineup batting better than .262. A whopping 35 MLB players have more RBIs than the 45 recorded by club leader Christopher Morel, who is batting .195 on the year.
Long story short, Sanchez should have a much easier time dealing with the Cubbies than Taillon will have with Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, and the Phillies. Don’t expect a big scoring output from either team on a hot holiday afternoon — but don’t expect any shocking upset, either. Bet on Philadelphia to cruise to an easy Independence Day victory.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Phillies 5, Cubs 2 — Philadelphia gets the win (-220) and covers the run line, and the total goes UNDER the 8-run projection (-115).
