NBA free agency has cooled in the past 24 hours with several of the biggest names available already finding homes, and that’s led to the opening of some more futures markets.
Oddsmakers have released odds for each division winner next season, something that can help us decipher who is favored between teams that are tied in the odds to win the Finals. For example, Denver and Oklahoma City are tied at +850 to win the title, but the Thunder have better odds to win the division, a sign that oddsmakers expect them to repeat as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.
That’s not the only division race that should be tight, and there are a couple of interesting favorites ahead of the 2024-25 season.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
This may be the toughest division in the NBA – at least with the top three teams.
Boston is still heavily favored with an implied probability of 61.54 percent that it wins the division, but these three teams (Boston, New York, Philly) are all in the top five in the odds to win the Finals and the top three choices amongst Eastern Conference teams.
Last season, the Milwaukee Bucks narrowly won the Central Division, thanks to the Cleveland Cavaliers losing on the final day of the season to set up a first-round playoff matchup with the Orlando Magic.
Vegas thinks that the Bucks (implied probability of 64.29 percent) will win the division again in the 2024-25 season, but there could be some value on the Cavs and Indiana Pacers. Indiana made the Eastern Conference Finals last season, and both teams have retained solid cores that won a playoff series last season.
With the Atlanta Hawks moving Dejounte Murray in a trade this offseason, the Southeast Division is essentially a two-team race between Orlando and Miami.
The Magic made a big move by adding 3-and-D specialist Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency, and they did hold off the Heat in the division last season. Still, based on these odds, Miami has an implied probability of 42.55 percent to win the division in the 2024-25 season.
The top three seeds in the Western Conference all came from the Northwest Division in the 2023-24 season, and oddsmakers expect this division to shake out the same way this season: OKC, Denver and then Minnesota.
The Thunder are slight favorites, and they’re a huge winner this offseason, adding Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein to a roster that is ready to win now. Denver’s loss of KCP certainly hurts it here, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see OKC finish as the No. 1 overall seed in the West again in 2025.
All five teams in the Pacific Division finished in the top 10 in the West last season, which is a major reason why nobody is shorter than +235 to win the division in the 2024-25 campaign.
The Phoenix Suns are favored, but the Los Angeles Clippers (+425) may be overpriced here despite winning the division last season. The loss of Paul George makes it a lot harder for the Clippers to stay alive if Kawhi Leonard gets hurt, but the Golden State Warriors (lost Klay Thompson) also aren’t as talented as they were last season.
This is a good division to take a couple swings at given the current market.
The defending Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks are favored to win this division in the 2024-25 season, but this is another market where things could be up for grabs.
Memphis had won this division in back-to-back years before losing Ja Morant to a suspension and injury last season. New Orleans added Dejounte Murray this offseason. Houston went on a massive run late in the 2023-24 season. San Antonio has Victor Wembanyama as a rising MVP candidate.
So, which team comes out on top?
After Dallas added Klay Thompson, oddsmakers are giving it a 48.78 percent chance to win the division, but I expect the standings to be a lot tighter than these odds suggest. A bet on Memphis is certainly worth a look with it expected to be back at full strength in the 2024-25 campaign.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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