Welcome to 32 teams in 32 days. To get us through the offseason, we’ll be taking a closer look at every team in the NFL, in order of projected 2024 win totals. Up next: the Bills.
The Buffalo Bills finally realized they needed a different approach to defeating the best teams in the AFC during the postseason. They said goodbye to Stefon Diggs, Mitch Morse, Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde and other veterans who helped win four consecutive AFC East titles.
Division titles are nice, but not enough to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals, two teams that have ended the Bills’ postseason runs the past four seasons.
The Bills’ roster isn’t as strong on paper, but perhaps that’ll allow for a new core group to emerge and it might force the coaching staff to get creative on the field. Buffalo took off last season after handing offensive play-calling duties to Joe Brady, who quickly brought out the best in Josh Allen.
The Bills are probably always going to have a chance to compete for a Super Bowl with Allen during his prime years. But there’s no denying that they might need a few weeks to adjust to all the changes that occurred in the offseason.
The Bills traded their best wide receiver to the Houston Texans and will have nothing to show for it this season because they gained a 2025 second-round pick. With Allen on the roster, there’s no waiting for next year, as the Bills will need Khalil Shakir, newcomer veteran Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman to fill the void left by Diggs and Gabe Davis, who signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency. The Bills also parted ways with Morse, White, Poyer and Hyde as they looked to repair their salary cap while also building a new core group around Allen.
Buffalo could struggle early in the season with an inexperienced roster, but perhaps change was needed for a star-studded team that kept falling short in the postseason. Allen often forced targets to Diggs as the relationship on the field began to get stale the past two seasons. Last season, the Bills got a glimpse of life without Diggs as the focal point to the offense when they turned their season around to win the AFC East. Diggs was featured less and the Bills leaned on the running game more with James Cook, allowing Allen to run an efficient offense. They weren’t as explosive, but they won games and gained an opportunity to face the Chiefs at home in the playoffs.
Ironically, that divisional game might have ended differently had Allen and Diggs connected downfield late in the fourth quarter. Or maybe he wasn’t meant to throw that pass to Diggs. We’ll find out whether the Bills are better off without the former first-team All-Pro receiver.
Speaking of growing pains, the new-look Bills could run into trouble early in the season, with four road games in the first six weeks of the season. After starting the season at home against the Arizona Cardinals, the Bills will go on the road to face the Miami Dolphins for their first of two meetings. Then, they’ll return home to battle the Jacksonville Jaguars before a three-game road trip against the Baltimore Ravens, Texans and New York Jets. If the Bills lose every game on the road trip—all three teams are viewed as playoff contenders—they might not have enough experience on the roster to turn their season around like they did last season after a 6–6 start.
There’s a case to be made of Kincaid having had his breakout season during his impressive rookie year, but he started the season behind Dawson Knox and wasn’t a top option for Allen until later in the season. Expect Kincaid to surpass his numbers from last season—he recorded 73 catches for 673 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The 2023 first-round pick might become Allen’s No. 1 pass catcher with Diggs no longer on the field. Coleman might need time to find his footing in the NFL, and Samuel and Shakir are downfield threats, but might not be suited for the role of No. 1 pass catcher. Look for Kincaid to emerge as one of the best tight ends in the league.
Last season, Allen threw for 4,306 yards, 29 touchdowns and 18 interceptions, and added 524 rushing yards with 15 touchdowns. That wasn’t good enough to win his first career MVP, but he might achieve it in 2024, even if his numbers decline with a less-is-more approach in the post-Diggs era in Buffalo. If the Bills are winning more and Allen’s throwing fewer interceptions, this could finally be the year they represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and deliver the first Lombardi Trophy in franchise history. But it would be much sweeter to do that if they knock off the Chiefs in the postseason—the team that has given the Bills three playoff losses in four years.
Allen played at an elite level when the Bills won five consecutive games to steal the AFC East from the Dolphins. Allen could play similarly during a full season with Brady as the offensive play-caller. Brady unlocked Cook, Kincaid and Shakir, and made the Bills’ offense better when he took over for former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey midway through the 2023 season.
Many are expecting the Bills to be O.K. without a few veteran players who have been instrumental in the team’s success the past few seasons because they still have Allen on the roster. But what if Allen goes through what Aaron Rodgers went through during his final years in Green Bay with a young receiving corps. The Bills have experience with Samuel, but he’s been more of a solid third option than a star playmaker. And maybe Shakir benefited from favorable matchups that he likely won’t see anymore without Diggs. There could be plenty of pressure on Coleman to fill the void.
Bills coach Sean McDermott has done a solid job of getting the most out of his young defenders, but they lack star power on that side of the ball and won’t have the luxury of leaning on veterans such as Poyer and Hyde to provide stability with the secondary. The 2024 season will reveal whether the Bills are in the midst of a rebuild or just needed to retool the roster to go further in the postseason. If it’s a rebuild, the Bills might pull the plug on McDermott after eight seasons.
No. 8: McDermott (18) and Allen (3)
The Bills appear to be undergoing a soft reset. Still, with Allen at the controls, Buffalo is a dangerous team. The main uncertainty is whether McDermott can make the right moves in key moments, something which has been his downfall. For his job to be safe, the Bills likely need to win at least another playoff game, and maybe more. —Matt Verderame
The Bills traded Diggs and lost Davis as a free agent, creating 241 available targets based on last season’s totals. That makes Coleman, who was the first pick in Round 2, a potential sleeper based on volume alone. He will also get to catch passes from one of the best quarterbacks in the league, an obvious advantage for the rookie.
Sure, the Bills might look very different on paper, but Allen has not thrown for fewer than 28 TDs since 2019. I’m bullish on the Bills with the makeover. Shakir, Kincaid and Coleman are good enough to get this done, and I like the plus-money here. —Jennifer Piacenti
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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