:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73430955/DraftWinLose_Getty_Ringer.0.jpg "2024 NBA Draft Winners and Losers")
What a first round! The 2024 NBA draft may not have been loaded with marquee names, but the first day of action delivered trades, surprising picks, and plenty of fascinating decisions.
Let’s examine the first 30 picks by breaking down the biggest winners and losers from Wednesday’s action. For pick-by-pick analysis, check out Danny Chau’s grades. To get ready for Round 2, here’s a list of my best available players remaining.
Tim Connelly just might be a basketball genius. After building a championship foundation with the Denver Nuggets, he reshaped the Minnesota Timberwolves to make this year’s Western Conference finals. And now this offseason is off to a tremendous start. Connelly made an aggressive trade by moving a top-one-protected first-round swap in 2030 and an unprotected first in 2031 for the no. 8 pick in this year’s draft, where the Wolves selected Kentucky point guard Rob Dillingham.
After losing to the Dallas Mavericks, the Timberwolves knew they badly needed to add more shot creation before next season, and Dillingham is the best shot creator in the entire class. He’s a shifty presence and is capable of firing jumpers from anywhere. Anthony Edwards alone became a must-watch player during the playoffs. Pair him with Dillingham, and they could be absolutely electric. The Kentucky guard isn’t just a bucket getter. As a freshman, he began developing his playmaking, something that didn’t happen before, when he was with Overtime Elite or Donda Academy. And what’s Dillingham best at as a passer? Throwing lobs. That’s good news for Rudy Gobert.
Mike Conley will turn 37 years old before next season. Dillingham will probably take a back seat at first, but with all of Minnesota’s length protecting his tiny frame on defense, it wouldn’t be a shocker if he’s earning big minutes sooner rather than later.
Oh, by the way: The Wolves also used the no. 27 pick on Terrence Shannon Jr., who averaged 23 points at Illinois this past season and is a relentless downhill attacker. Shannon will provide more creation off Minnesota’s bench, and with his toned 220-pound frame and 6-foot-9 wingspan, he’s displayed flashes of super-versatile defense. There’s a chance that both will immediately be plugged into the Wolves’ rotation.
Stephon Castle is one hell of a choice for the Spurs with the fourth pick. He has the upside to handle all the normal point guard duties, but he’s also a scrappy dude who sets screens, rebounds, and defends. There’s a chance that he and Victor Wembanyama will become an incredible duo for years in San Antonio, especially on defense.
But I don’t agree with San Antonio’s decision to trade the no. 8 pick to the Timberwolves for a protected swap six years from now and an unprotected first seven years from now. Why they did it is simple to understand, though: Edwards can become a free agent in 2029, the year before the Spurs receive a swap and two years before they get an unprotected first. So the Spurs are betting that the Timberwolves will eventually implode. No titles. A rising salary cap. Limited assets. And Edwards walks.
Wemby will be in the middle of his second contract by then. The Spurs may value those picks significantly at that point. Cheap rookie-scale contracts can be key to building a competitive roster. They are taking the long view.
But moving the eighth pick in a draft filled with prospects who could be great fits with Wembanyama, players he could grow with over the years to come, just seems like a high price to pay when those picks are so far down the line. And Edwards will still be in his prime in 2030. The Timberwolves will still want to be competitive—especially considering that they won’t have their picks. It’s just a weird deal, and I wish that the Spurs had instead taken one of the remaining players available on the board or kept Dillingham.
The French were huge winners on Wednesday night. Four of them got picked in the first round. Three in the first six picks! Pacome Dadiet to the Knicks. Tidjane Salaun to the Hornets. Alex Sarr to the Wizards. And Zaccharie Risacher to the Hawks with the first pick.
Take it from me: Not every top-ranked French prospect turns out to be Wemby. Of these four selections, I have the most questions about Atlanta’s decision to select Risacher. Sure, he looks the part of a 3-and-D wing on paper. He stands at 6-foot-9 and played versatile defense for the top-ranked defensive team in France last season. He made 39.4 percent of his 3s. That’s all good.
But Risacher’s 3-point percentage is a bit misleading: He hit 48.2 percent of his 3s over his first 34 games last season before making only 29.8 percent over his final 31, which more closely mirrored the 32 percent of 3s he had previously made overseas. Are we sure he’s a knockdown shooter? This was the same concern people had with Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter, two other long wings the Hawks recently drafted in the lottery. The indicators aren’t great for Risacher, either. Last season he made only 70 percent of his free throws, only 47 percent of his layups in the half court, and only 38 percent of his floaters.
Are we sure he didn’t just have a hot streak to begin last season? Risacher hasn’t shown much ability in the shot creation department, either. He was barely a player that opposing teams worried about on offense, and he didn’t score much. Yes, his defense is good. Yes, the hot shooting streaks are appealing. But I’m having French flashbacks.
Reed Sheppard dressed exactly how I’d expect a guy from Kentucky named Reed Sheppard to dress for the NBA draft:
And you know what, I loved that the Rockets picked him at no. 3, too. Sheppard finished first on my final Big Board because he’s an incredible shooter and a visionary playmaker who causes chaos on defense. The primary concerns about his game are his size, since he’s only 6-foot-2, and his shot creation, since he’s more of a connector than a primary creator right now. But those worries should be subdued in Houston. The Rockets have loads of lengthy defenders to help protect the rim. And many of those players are also shot creators. Sheppard won’t be relied on to run pick-and-rolls over and over. Instead, he’ll be one of the many players initiating offense in Houston.
Sheppard’s game, just like his fashion, may not always be sexy. But sometimes you don’t have to arrive in the flashiest outfit to make the biggest splash.
After firing Monty Williams, the Pistons don’t even have a head coach yet. But they do have an incredible assistant coach in Fred Vinson, who was largely responsible for rebuilding the jump shots of guys like Lonzo Ball and Herb Jones when he was an assistant in New Orleans. And now Vinson will be tasked with fixing the shot of Ron Holland, whom the Pistons surprisingly selected with the fifth pick on Wednesday.
Last season Holland shot only 24 percent from 3 and just 72.8 percent from the line. But he’s never really been a productive shooter. He couldn’t ask for a better shooting coach, though. That said, between extending Cade Cunningham’s range, fixing Ausar Thompson’s shot, and now helping Holland out, Vinson will have his work cut out for him.
First, the Thunder selected Serbian point guard Nikola Topic with the 12th pick. He’s currently sidelined by a partially torn ACL and will in all likelihood be a redshirt rookie, just like Chet Holmgren. And later, the Thunder sent five second-round picks to the Knicks to select Dillon Jones, a 6-foot-5, 237-pound guard/bowling ball.
Both of them have something in common: They struggled to make 3s, but they shot over 80 percent from the free throw line. The Thunder must believe that their renowned shooting coach, Chip Engelland, will be able to fix their jumpers. It’ll just take time, at least one year for the injured Topic.
Let’s rewind one year. I wrote an article making the case that Kristaps Porzingis could be the steal of the offseason. I wrote:
Health will always be a concern for Porzingis … [but] there’s no long-term risk for a new team. Just upside for a run at the championship.
Great take! But I didn’t make the case that the Celtics should go for him. Instead, I said it should be Miami:
Imagine, say, Bam Adebayo of the Heat in that free-safety role, operating off the ball, kind of like how Jaren Jackson Jr. does for Memphis or Giannis Antetokounmpo does for Milwaukee. Porzingis would give Miami, or another team, a lot of scheme versatility.
Maybe things could have been different this season had the Heat acquired KP. But I was definitely on to something since they just drafted Kel’el Ware, a 7-footer who can block shots, who finishes lobs, and who hit over 40 percent of his 3s last season.
Adebayo also became a 3-point shooter toward the end of last season. Bam made 35.7 percent of his 3s in 2023-24. He’s always had good touch from the line and from midrange. So if Adebayo’s progress continues and Ware’s game translates, it’ll enable the Heat to play five-out on offense while maintaining elite rim protection on defense. A perfect counter to Boston.
Aren’t the Bucks supposed to be contending? Isn’t the pressure supposed to be on the team to take full advantage of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s prime? Didn’t Doc Rivers join to win now? So, uh, why the hell did they select AJ Johnson, a 19-year-old, 167-pound guard who averaged 2.9 points per game last season playing in the NBL?
The Bucks are old and needed to get younger. But not this young. Not this raw. Not this uncertain. Johnson could prove to be a steal in the long term if he bulks up and becomes good at playing basketball. But Giannis will turn 30 later this year. And there were plenty of other young guys who were available and could help now. I’m just left feeling confused.
It’s a major surprise that Dalton Knecht was available for the Lakers with the 17th pick. Entering the draft, he was connected to teams as high as the Pistons at no. 5. Yet he kept on falling all the way to Los Angeles, which could be a perfect fit for him and where he could contribute right away.
Lakers head coach JJ Redick said he wants to run more offense through Anthony Davis, which likely means that we’ll see AD used more often in dribble handoffs on the perimeter. Well, the Lakers already found a partner for him in Knecht, who drained 42.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s last season. Knecht can score in a lot of ways, whether coming off screens, handoffs, or relocations. And since he can handle the ball, he and AD could develop synergy in the two-man game for years to come.
Regardless, he and the Lakers need higher-volume shooters. They were 28th in 3-point attempts. LeBron James, D’Angelo Russell, and Rui Hachimura can’t be your best shooting threats. Now Knecht will be a main target.
After the Trail Blazers selected Donovan Clingan, I posted this on X:
I regret it. Let me try again after having time to marinate on the pick:
A frontcourt with Clingan and Deandre Ayton is absolutely worth trying on offense. We know who Clingan is. At a minimum, he’s an excellent at-rim finisher who can catch lobs and score in the post. Plus, he can facilitate.
But this is more about Ayton. The main reason he averaged over 20 points over the final month of last season was because of a dramatic change in his usage. In Ayton’s last 15 games he took more shots outside of the paint (119) than he did in his first 40 games (115). For the first time in his career, a coach let him launch jumpers. Ayton primarily took deep midrange shots, usually off the catch but sometimes off the dribble. And he flourished. For the season, he made 48.8 percent of his attempts. And he made over 80 percent of his free throws for the first time (up from 75.5 percent in his Suns career). Ayton has always fancied himself as a shooter. What if, at age 26 next season, he’s finally cracked the code on the jumper? Ayton was a knockdown midrange guy for a full year. What if he comes back shooting 3s at a reliable clip?
All of that is to say, rather than making a trade now, the Trail Blazers would be better off waiting. If Ayton starts shooting 3s, then it would be a game-changing development for him since it’d minimize the need for Clingan to ever do it. And on defense, they could be twin towers with Clingan primarily defending the rim and Ayton thriving as a roamer.
What a weird day for the Suns—it started out with reports that the Rockets wanted to make an offer for Kevin Durant. Or even for Devin Booker. It got to the point that Suns owner Mat Ishbia posted this on X to quiet everyone down about all the gossip:
And with the Suns on the clock with the 22nd pick, they traded down. With who? The Nuggets, their West nemesis. Everyone in the world knew Denver wanted DaRon Holmes II, since it’s been rumored for weeks that the Nuggets made a promise to him. So the Suns got the no. 28 pick, plus three second-rounders out of it: no. 56 on Thursday night, and picks in 2026 and 2031.
Holmes makes perfect sense for the Nuggets no matter the cost, but this was incredibly well done by the Suns front office. And then they found possibly the steal of the draft with the 28th pick: Ryan Dunn, who stands at 6-foot-6 and has a 7-foot-2 wingspan. Dunn logged 3.6 stocks (steals and blocks) as a Virginia sophomore and can defend across every position. Quick guards. Strong forwards. Bigs. It doesn’t matter: Dunn can defend every inch of the court.
The concern about Dunn is his offense. He was a non-shooter at Virginia, but I’m not quite sure that matters in Phoenix. What Dunn can do on offense is set screens, attack the glass, and finish loudly at the rim. If the Suns do indeed run it back with Durant and Booker, then Dunn will have plenty of space to make an impact near the rim. At the least, he’ll be good. And if his shot comes along, then Dunn could be truly great.
On June 3, Chris Vernon and I recorded an episode of The Mismatch…
“Some poor soul is going to take him high,” Verno said. “If he goes 9 to Memphis you’ll never see me again.”
Verno was, of course, talking about Zach Edey, who his Memphis Grizzlies selected with the ninth pick. God, I love this podcast.
And by the way, Verno will fall in love soon. So will all Grizzlies fans. Edey is going from Braden Smith to Ja Morant as his point guard. Morant will create easier shots for him than he’s ever had before. And he’s going to be supported on defense with some stout perimeter defenders and a former Defensive Player of the Year in Jaren Jackson Jr.
There wasn’t a better fit for Edey in the entire draft than Memphis. I wasn’t sure it’d happen. The Grizzlies want to play fast. And they will. But it turns out they also want to be able to slow it down. And now with Edey, they will be able to play any way they want to, and both dictate matchups and respond to matchups in a playoff setting.
