MLB (0.5 Unit) Chris Flexen Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
With the offense for the Twins rolling the way it is, a below-average pitcher who struggles at home should be easy for them to get to. Chris Flexen sees his ERA, WHIP, and opponent on-base average all take jumps up in home games. The Chicago righty actually has some decent numbers against the Twins this season, but hasn’t faced them in over two months. A lot has changed with the Minnesota offense since then, and I think the bats stay hot in Chicago today.
Bonus Bets (0.5 Unit Each) Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases & Jose Miranda Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 Each; Odds via DraftKings)
The question then becomes who for Minnesota is going to get the hits tonight. Well, since Jose Miranda is hitting everything, literally, it’d be criminal to leave him out, and he is 2 for 5 lifetime against Flexen. But who really has teed off is Buxton, who has 9 career at-bats against Flexen with 7 hits, 5 of which went for extra bases. These two need to do more to anchor the lineup with Royce Lewis out, and I think they come through in this spot.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Ryan Feltner Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports Ohio
Feltner is far worse at home in Coors than he is on the road, but it’s not a drastic enough difference to justify this low of a prop number. Let’s start with the fact that Feltner is 11-6 to the over on this total in his starts this season, including 6 of the past 7 outings. One of those happened to come against Cincinnati, who tagged him for 10 hits and 8 runs, albeit in Colorado. But the Reds have a hitter-friendly park of their own, and that should help them once again punish a starter they have strong history with.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2368-2182 ATS (+89.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
