With the conclusion of the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournaments (OQTs) — which saw Greece, Spain, Puerto Rico, and Brazil all win their way in — the field of 12 has been finalized for the 2024 Olympic basketball tournament in Paris.
Now that the groups have been decided and the full tournament field is set in stone, the Sporting News has the latest odds to win the gold medal on August 10, as well as the best bets, top sleepers, and highest-value long shot.
Can anyone beat Joel Embiid, LeBron James, and the heavily-favored United States? Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Canada play spoiler? Who will score on the Stifle-Tower duo of Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama on their home soil?
Let’s get right to the opening DraftKings odds for the men’s basketball tournament at the 2024 Olympics in Paris.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
| Team | Odds |
| USA | -390 |
| Canada | +900 |
| France | +1000 |
| Serbia | +1300 |
| Greece | +1900 |
| Germany | +2800 |
| Australia | +4500 |
| Spain | +5000 |
| Brazil | +10000 |
| Puerto Rico | +30000 |
| South Sudan | +30000 |
| Japan | +30000 |
Big surprise: USA is the team to beat. When America brings its best team, America’s team tends to win — and it’s safe to say that this version of Team USA is loaded.
The storylines are plentiful. It could be the final Olympics run for LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant. A healthy Joel Embiid decided to suit up for the U.S., spurning opportunities to play for either France (he received a French passport in 2022) or native Cameroon. 2024 NBA champions Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday look to make it 2-2 this summer. Anthony Edwards thinks he’s the No. 1 option.
The 2020 Olympics in Japan (played in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic) marked the fourth consecutive Olympics in which the U.S. won it all, and this squad is expected to enjoy the same exact result.
This squad has everything — passing, ball-handling, defense, rebounding, and of course, loads of scoring — but beyond that, it has winning experience and one of the best coaches of all time in Steve Kerr.
It’s not a fun bet — risking $390 for the chance to make $100 will never be an enjoyable experience — but it would be disingenuous to call any other team the “best bet.”
Canada continues to evolve as a hotbed for hoops, and it’s easy to understand why so many bettors have flocked to the United States’ neighbors to the north.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as one of the best players in the world, and Jamal Murray has demonstrated countless times that he’s as cold-blooded as they come.
Add in some dominating perimeter defenders like Lu Dort, Dillon Brooks, Andrew Wiggins, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker — not to mention a massive interior presence like Zach Edey — and you’re talking about a team that can make some serious noise in Paris.
No Olympic hoops betting preview would be complete this year without France, which sports a starting five of all NBA players including unanimous NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.
This team is an embarrassment of rim-protection riches, but it can also move the ball well and knock down a ton of three-pointers. It also has tremendous basketball IQ, solid coaching, and the one thing none of the other 11 teams in the field possess: the benefit of home-court advantage.
Brazil arguably plays in the weakest overall group, somehow avoiding USA, Canada, and Greece. It also had the most convincing win at the FIBA Olympic qualifiers, decimating Latvia 94-69. Brazil enjoyed a 19-0 run to finish the first quarter up by 23 points, and never looked back.
Leo Meindl and Bruno Caboclo have been dominant offensively and on the glass, while the Brazilians’ three-point shooting has also come together. They shot an impeccable 8-of-8 from outside the arc in the first quarter of the FIBA qualifier Final. This team is way too dangerous to be priced this low.
| Group | Team 1 | Team 2 | Team 3 | Team 4 |
| A | Canada | Greece | Australia | Spain |
| B | Germany | France | Brazil | Japan |
| C | USA | Serbia | Puerto Rico | S. Sudan |
Group A has been labeled the “Group of Death,” with stacked Canadian and Australian teams, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece, and a proven winner in Spain. It will almost certainly be the most difficult group in the Olympics.
Group B has 2023 FIBA winner Germany, France and the twin-tower duo of Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama, and two scrappy squads in Brazil and Japan. This seems like a very physical group.
Group C has the best overall team, USA, but also Nikola Jokic, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Serbia as well as Jose Alvarado and Puerto Rico. None of these three groups will be a cake walk.
While dealing with Giannis Antetokounmpo will be a challenge for Canada’s bigs, Greece will also have a difficult time slowing down SGA and his barrage of floor-spacing weapons. Canada has the second-best roster in this tournament and quite possibly the best perimeter defense. If the threes fall, this team could win it all.
France has home-court advantage and two of the best big men in the world in Wemby and Rudy Gobert. It also has seasoned veterans Nicolas Batum and Evan Fournier, both of whom play intelligent ball and hit timely threes. Don’t expect anyone in this group to get past France.
The best bet to win it all also has the best shot of advancing past the group stage. USA checked off every skill set during roster construction, and it has as good a shot as ever to win gold. Jokic and Serbia will present a challenge, but nothing that Bam Adebayo and Anthony Davis haven’t dealt with before.
