The Philadelphia Eagles led the NFL last season with a run-block win rate of 76.9%, and that meshes with what I saw on the tape. This unit could get off the ball and create daylight.
Yes, the Eagles’ blocking metrics could take a slight hit this upcoming season with All-Pro center Jason Kelce retired. We get that. However, with the core of the top offensive line in the league returning, I’m all-in on free-agent addition Saquon Barkley as a top-five fantasy running back.
But outside of the Eagles, who are the other teams primed to have a run game this season that will create fantasy production? Let’s take a deeper look at the run-block win rates and discuss the best scheme and personnel to give you a head start in your fantasy prep this summer.
Both Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris fit as strong flex plays behind an upgraded Steelers offensive line, one that registered 71.3% run-block win rate last season, in what should be a run-heavy system under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
In 2023, as the coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Smith’s team logged 522 rushing attempts, the third-most in the league. Pittsburgh added two tone-setters through the draft in center Zach Frazier and right tackle Troy Fautanu, which will allow 2023 first-round tackle Broderick Jones to move over to the left side. That works.
Now, Warren will give you more as a receiver, as he caught 61 passes last season, but I also look at his explosive ability running the ball. Warren posted a run of 10 or more yards on 16.1% of his carries last season, which ranked fifth in the league among running backs with at least 100 rushes. He can scoot. Harris is your classic volume grinder with scoring upside, which we saw to close out last season. Harris totaled at least one rushing score in each of his final three games, with two games of 24 or more fantasy points.
I still see Warren as the top Steelers running back to target in fantasy drafts, but I’ve also had eyes on Harris in my mock drafts this summer because of the run game system under Smith and an offensive front that will allow Pittsburgh to control tempo, regardless of the back.
Bears running back D’Andre Swift has been a pretty consistent midround target for me in mock drafts this summer. Chicago returns four of five starters the on offensive front, a group that ranked second overall in run-block win rate last season (74.6%).
Shane Waldron takes over as the Bears’ new offensive coordinator, where we’ll see a heavy mix of one-back sets out of 11- and 12-personnel groupings. For as much as I point to the high ceiling of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, the run game will remain a key part of the Chicago’s offense.
Swift topped the 1,000-rushing yard mark for the Eagles last season, with 22 carries of 10 yards or more, while posting nine games of double-digit fantasy production. While I do expect Swift, who has caught 45 or more passes in three of his four pro seasons, to play a factor as a screen/underneath target for Williams, his decisive running style and lateral ability as a zone runner works here.
If Swift can hold off both Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert as the primary red zone back, I see him as a dependable RB2 behind an offensive front that features an ascending star in second-year right tackle Darnell Wright.
Rookie Tyler Guyton is slated to start at left tackle for the Cowboys, replacing veteran Tyron Smith. Guyton has all the physical tools to play the position for a unit that registered a 72.4% run-block win rate last season, the fifth-best mark in the league. And that opens the door for veteran Ezekiel Elliott to lead the Cowboys’ run game, if the club doesn’t make a move for a running back in camp, with Rico Dowdle also seeing carries.
We can be honest about Elliott at this stage of his playing days, too. His play speed has diminished, as he lacks the elite short-area burst and second gear we saw earlier in his career. However, Elliott did produce double-digit fantasy production four of his final five games last season, including two games with 21 or more points.
He’s a reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield (51 receptions in 2023), and I still believe Elliott has the lower body power and vision to produce as a goal line runner — with more red zone rushing volume in Dallas.
Last season, Mike McCarthy’s offense in Dallas had 468 rushing attempts, the 14th-most in the NFL. It’s an explosive unit, with an offensive line that can give Elliott opportunities. With Elliott’s current ADP at RB35, he is a smart target as a deeper league flex option.
Running back James Cook has the versatility to create numbers as a receiver, as he logged 44 receptions on 54 targets last season, but don’t look past his rushing totals, given his dynamic traits.
In 2023, behind a Bills offensive line that had a 71.8% run-block win rate (seventh-best in the league), Cook rushed for 1,122 yards and had 33 rushes of 10 yards or more. Plus, Cook averaged 16.7 carries per game from Weeks 11-18 after Joe Brady was named the offensive coordinator.
Yes, the presence of quarterback Josh Allen as a runner, plus the addition of rookie running back Ray Davis, could continue to limit Cook’s usage in the low red zone. We get it. However, the Bills had 258 rushing attempts (from Weeks 11-18) when Brady led the No.1 offense in the league. With that kind of run game volume, plus Cooks’ dual-threat traits, I see potential RB1 upside here.
Sean McVay’s run game system might be the best in the league. It’s also a foundational piece of the offense in L.A., as it builds conflict for opposing defenses with motion/misdirection, plus the formation alignments to create extra gaps on the edges.
The team re-signed right guard Kevin Dotson, who played the best football of his career in 2023, and signed left guard Jonah Jackson from Detroit to elevate the interior of the front in a system that tended to be more gap (power) heavy.
Last season behind an offensive line that had a run-block win rate of 71.2% (12th), Kyren Williams averaged 21.3 PPG (12 games played) and posted 20 or more points seven times. He’s going to see steady volume too, as he averaged 19 carries a game. Plus, Williams has the short area burst and vision to produce in the low red zone, where he logged 13 carries inside the five yard line. That’s scoring upside here, and the profile of an RB1. We know that.
So let’s also focus on rookie running back Blake Corum out of Michigan. He has similar traits to Williams as a runner, with the decisive north-south juice and the contact balance to win at the second level. He’s on my draft list this summer as a top insurance back to Williams, who missed five games last season. If Corum gets some weeks as the Rams’ No. 1, you can trust McVay’s offense to produce viable fantasy numbers in the run game.
