Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
___
It’s already desperate times for a few NFL teams who entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations.
The Ravens, Bengals and Jaguars are among nine winless teams facing a must-win game in Week 3. So are the Colts and Rams.
They already have an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Only two of the 32 teams that started 0-2 have made the playoffs since the NFL expanded the postseason field to 14 teams in 2020.
Avoiding another loss this week will be crucial. Only six teams since 1979 have made the playoffs after starting 0-3, including just one since 2000. No Super Bowl champion has ever started a season 0-3.
Led by NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, Baltimore had the NFL’s best record last season but lost to Kansas City in the AFC title game. The Ravens fell just short against the Chiefs in the season opener and inexplicably blew a 10-point lead at home to the Raiders last week.
They’ll visit the Dallas Cowboys, who are coming off a lopsided 44-19 loss to the Saints. Dallas had won 16 straight regular-season games at home before being dominated by New Orleans. The Cowboys, who opened with an impressive win in Cleveland, also were blown out at home by the Packers in a wild-card playoff game last January.
The Ravens are 1 1/2-point favorites, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. Oddsmakers are giving John Harbaugh’s team plenty of respect.
Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons and the Cowboys aren’t as bad as they looked against the Saints, but they’re still a work in progress.
Pro Picks leans toward the more desperate team.
RAVENS, 27-24
Kansas City at Atlanta
Line: Chiefs minus 3 1/2
Kirk Cousins led an impressive comeback on the road on Monday night to save the Falcons (1-1) from an 0-2 start. Now, they have to face the two-time defending Super Bowl champions. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (2-0) haven’t played a complete game yet and have come away with two narrow wins.
BEST BET: CHIEFS, 27-19
Philadelphia at New Orleans
Line: Saints minus 2 1/2
The Eagles (1-1) blew a late lead in their home opener and have looked shaky. Derek Carr and the Saints (2-0) dominated the Cowboys on the road and have outscored opponents 91-29. So why are they favored by less than a field goal?
UPSET SPECIAL: EAGLES, 27-26
Line: Jets minus 6 1/2
Aaron Rodgers plays his first game at home since tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 1 in 2023. The Jets are due to put it all together after a loss and a shaky win. The rebuilding Patriots (1-1) are playing with fight under new coach Jerod Mayo. They should keep it close on Thursday night.
JETS, 23-17
New York Giants at Cleveland
Line: Browns minus 6 1/2
Deshaun Watson and the Browns (1-1) looked much better in Jacksonville. Myles Garrett and a stingy defense should make it a tough day on Daniel Jones and the Giants (0-2). The Browns are 6-1 against the spread in their past seven home games. The Giants are 1-8 straight up in their past nine road games.
BROWNS, 26-16
Line: Titans minus 1 1/2
Jordan Love returned to practice and is hoping to play after Malik Willis led the Packers (1-1) to his first victory as a starter. The Titans (0-2) need to find a way to win no matter whom they’re playing against. It’ll help if Will Levis eliminates those boneheaded turnovers.
PACKERS, 20-16
Line: Colts minus 1
No. 1 Caleb Williams has struggled in his first two starts for the Bears (1-1). They should rely on the run against the Colts, who allowed 200 yards on the ground in each of the first two games and now will be missing three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. Anthony Richardson has thrown four picks already for Indianapolis (0-2).
COLTS, 23-20
Line: Texans minus 2 1/2
C.J. Stroud isn’t satisfied with Houston’s offense despite a 2-0 start. The Texans could be without running backs Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce but Will Anderson Jr. and a smothering defense will present a major challenge for Sam Darnold and the Vikings (2-0).
TEXANS, 26-20
Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers minus 1 1/2
One of two matchups between unbeaten teams that’ll be more of an old-school football battle. With J.K. Dobbins leading the way on the ground, the Chargers don’t need Justin Herbert to throw 50 times a game. T.J. Watt going against Los Angeles rookie tackle Joe Alt will be interesting. Justin Fields has played mistake-free ball filling in for Russell Wilson and the Steelers are winning because they have no turnovers.
STEELERS, 20-17
Denver at Tampa Bay
Line: Buccaneers minus 7
Baker Mayfield has turned into one of the top quarterbacks in the league and Todd Bowles’ injury-plagued defense was outstanding on the road against the high-octane Lions as the Buccaneers (2-0) pulled of an upset. That defense will make it tough on Bo Nix and the Broncos (0-2).
BUCCANEERS, 24-18
Carolina at Las Vegas
Line: Raiders minus 5 1/2
Maybe Andy Dalton can kickstart an offense that was dreadful with Bryce Young. The Panthers (0-2) can’t be any worse. Gardner Minshew led the Raiders (1-1) to a stunning comeback win in Baltimore while Maxx Crosby had another huge game.
RAIDERS, 23-19
Line: Seahawks minus 4 1/2
Without Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins (1-1) turn to Skylar Thompson. He has plenty of playmakers around him, including All-Pro Tyreek Hill. The Seahawks are 2-0 behind Geno Smith and a revamped defense under Mike Macdonald.
SEAHAWKS, 24-20
San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams
Line: 49ers minus 7 1/2
The 49ers (1-1) and Rams (0-2) injury reports look like a Pro Bowl roster. Los Angeles is in danger of falling way behind after making the playoffs last year. Brock Purdy still has Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Jordan Mason. The 49ers are 1-5 against the spread in their past six games but 7-2 against it in their past nine games vs. the Rams.
49ERS, 26-20
Line: Lions minus 3
The Lions (1-1) haven’t played like Super Bowl contenders the first two weeks. It’s time for Jared Goff and Co. to get on track. Kyler Murray has to avoid Aidan Hutchinson and continue getting the ball to Marvin Harrison Jr. for the Cardinals (1-1).
LIONS, 27-20
Jacksonville at Buffalo
Line: Bills minus 5 1/2
After winning the AFC South in 2022 and falling short following a late-season collapse last year, the Jaguars (0-2) can’t afford another loss. They’re better than they’ve shown. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills (2-0) are playing like a team that felt disrespected.
JAGUARS, 23-21
Washington at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals minus 7 1/2
Joe Burrow nearly beat Mahomes and the Chiefs again if it weren’t for defensive blunders again. The Bengals (0-2) need a win badly. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders (1-1) aren’t ready to pull off this upset, though they should keep it close.
BENGALS, 26-20
Last week: Straight up: 8-8. Against spread: 8-7-1
Overall: Straight up: 23-9. Against spread: 17-13-2
Thursday: Straight up: 1-1. Against spread: 2-0.
Monday: Straight up: 2-0. Against spread: 1-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 1-1. Against spread: 1-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 2-0. Against spread: 2-0.
___
AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl
Rob Maaddi, The Associated Press
