Media day and training camp are right around the corner! Quotes about ‘being in the best shape of my life’ and ‘we believe this team can win’ are soon to grace your ears when it comes to all 30 NBA teams.

Honeymoon season is upon us.

For their part, the Toronto Raptors will be tugging on our collective heartstrings all season by celebrating their 30th anniversary. New jerseys. New merch. A bunch of SKUs and a likely jersey retirement for one of the franchise’s most iconic players.

But even on the floor, the honeymoon phase greatly applies to this new-look Raptors team. Coming off a tumultuous season that included trade rumors, a betting scandal, a lawsuit, pizza parties, a new Head Coach, an All-Star appearance for one of their bright stars, and a complete change in trajectory for the franchise, the 2024-2025 season is a clean slate.

Expectations aren’t necessarily high for this new young crop centered around Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and the recently extended Immanuel Quickley. Take this for what you will, but most betting sites have the Raptors’ win total for this season set at 30.5.

How do they exceed that? What major factors can change that? Let’s dig in.

Note: For fun, I’ve ranked these in order of most likely to least likely.

Gradey Dick Hits Over 38% of His Threes On High Volume

Gradey Dick’s rookie season was a roller-coaster that ended off on a really high note. From January onwards, Dick shot 39% on nearly five 3-point attempts a game, showed off an impressive feel as a cutter, passer, and defender, and even had some moments creating his own shot.

The shooting will continue to be the big swing skill that keeps him on the court, however.

If Dick can maintain the 38-40% clip from three on over six attempts a night for an entire season, he’d be in the same class as other, primarily catch-and-shoot players like: Gary Trent Jr., Trey Murphy, Corey Kispert, Buddy Hield, Michael Porter Jr., and others.

If you look at those names and are surprised by the expectations, don’t be. Dick needs to become that level of shooter to earn his keep and reach his ceiling as a player. And in half of his rookie season, he’s shown he can do it.

This is the most feasible of all listed swing factors for a reason.

Davion Mitchell Becomes An Essential Part Of The Rotation

Point-of-attack defense was a major sore spot for the Raptors after trading both OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. The idea was that Immanuel Quickley could potentially fill that void. Still, between trying to juggle the uptick in offensive responsibility and being undersized — Quickley was outmatched as the defacto #1 stopper on the perimeter.

The Raptors have tried to mitigate that issue over the last few months by trading for Ochai Agbaji, drafting Jamal Shead and Ja’Kobe Walter with hopes that they develop into defensive stoppers, and, most importantly, trading for Sacramento Kings guard Davion Mitchell.

Mitchell—who is most affectionately known as “Off Night” because anytime he defends someone… well, you get it—is easily the best guard defender the Raptors have had since Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry. His quick feet and strong, stout frame allow him to guard up and across multiple positions. He provides the Raptors with a level of switch ability they did not have in the second half of last season.

Of course, how much he plays and how consistent his opportunities are will entirely depend on the offensive end of the floor — which is why his minutes continuously dropped in his three seasons with the Kings. Mitchell’s struggles in the three-point shooting department were really exacerbated in his time in Sacramento, and his jump shot (he hit 36% of his threes on a career-low two attempts last season) will be the major swing factor for how permanent his spot is in the rotation.

That being said, the Raptors don’t have the depth the Kings do and likely won’t be able to afford not to play Mitchell, especially because of their own issues defensively on the perimeter and the lack of alternative options they have. I’m fairly confident Mitchell will be a mainstay in the Raptors’ rotation. How much, however, could swing their season to a certain degree.

RJ Barrett Remains Toronto RJ Barrett

That video where John Wall looks at Bradley Beal and says, “I have never seen you act like this before” was basically how all Raptors fans felt watching RJ Barrett when Toronto acquired him.

Barrett put up career numbers in virtually every statistical category in his first 32 games north of the border, averaging career-highs in points, field-goal percentage, 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage, and assists. He became an elite finisher who feasted in the Raptors’ motion-heavy, transition-reliant offense.

The question: Will it continue for a whole 82-game season?

It might not be with the same ferocity and efficiency, but I’d wager that most of what Barrett did in his first half-season with the Raptors will translate over. Going further, the bigger question is if he can make even more strides as a defender, both on and off the ball, and if he can continue to improve as a shooter.

Even if he continues at the exact same rate he did to finish off the 2023-2024 season, but for a longer amount of time, that is a huge win for the Raptors long-term. By the same token, if he declines or returns to the New York version — things could swing the other way.

Scottie Barnes Becomes An All-NBA Player

We’re now veering into less likely territory. Not unlikely! Not impossible! Just… less.

Barnes inked a 5-year rookie max extension this summer that has some massive contractual implications for this following season. If he makes any of the three All-NBA teams, he will be eligible for a nice $50M pay raise throughout those five years—nothing to scoff at.

Of course, getting to that level depends on a few things outside of Barnes’s control. He has to play in 65 games now (as part of the new league-wide rule implemented last season) and be one of the 15 best, most effective, and dominant players in the NBA next season.

Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? Tough to say.

Barnes is coming off an All-Star campaign in his third season, where he put up career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-point percentage, free-throw percentage, and field-goal percentage. It’s why he earned that nice extension. All-Star level makes him, roughly, a top 25ish player in the league.

What would be required to get him to the top 15ish? Well, if he continues to put up those numbers, has an uptick in scoring and efficiency, and sustains the all-defense level play that he had to start last season (it dipped once he was forced to be perimeter-oriented on that end post-Anunoby trade) — then he’ll be in the conversation.

Barnes will be an All-NBA player. Whether it’s next season or soon doesn’t entirely matter for the Raptors’ long-term goals (unless you’re looking at a cap sheet).

But if he becomes one next season? Then we might be talking about a playoff team.

Immanuel Quickley Puts Himself In Most Improved Consideration

Much like the Barnes discussion… it’s not impossible! But I wouldn’t go as far as saying it’s likely.

Quickley’s first 38 games with the Raptors were very good. Like Barrett, he put up career highs in points, assists, and 3-point percentage. But like Barrett, there are a few wrinkles in his game he needs to iron out as he enters a new phase in his career, equipped with the money of a franchise player.

While he markedly improved in Toronto as a playmaker, there is ample room for him to improve on that end, especially with a live dribble, maneuvering through traffic, and dealing with different coverages. His defense was highly touted in New York but seemingly regressed as he dealt with the increase in offensive usage in Toronto.

The other thing is shooting—lots of shooting.

How he manages in those three areas will determine whether he gets MIP consideration. If all goes well, he’ll get there, but I think it’s fair to assume there will be some growing pains, too.x

One Of Their Four Rookies Pops In Year 1

The Raptors have four rookies coming into the fold next season. Player development and the Raptors’ G-League affiliate, the 905, will be all-important as they try to make the most of these young, intriguing prospects.

Ja’Kobe Walter, Jonathan Mogbo, Jamal Shead and Ulrich Chomche.

I’ve detailed before why I think the Raptors aced the 2024 draft, giving themselves an abundance of options by drafting four very different players, but if one of them were to pop — it would give them a significant cushion off of the bench. As of now, depth isn’t one of the strong suits of this Raptors team. Outside of Mitchell, Bruce Brown, and Kelly Olynyk, the rest of the second unit is filled with unproven players like Agbaji and their four rookies.

If I had to wager which has the best chance of earning a permanent spot in the rotation next season, it would be Mogbo, the 31st overall pick utility-knife big man who played four years of college ball. He has an NBA-ready body and tangible skills he can bring on day one, like rebounding, passing, and a high motor, and all of that would be a welcome addition to the Raptors bench.

That said, it’s very rare for a rookie to pop off in year one. Scottie Barnes did it. Pascal Siakam did it as well. But those are rare, franchise-level players.

Final Note

The way I see it, each one of these things will impact the Raptors by about 3 wins.

If only two of them happen, they’ll be about a 35-37 win team. If all of them happen, they could end up being the surprise team in the East, winning 45 games and becoming a playoff team in their first season of a rebuild.

The fun comes from watching it happen. No matter which way it shakes out.