Hope springs eternal in Las Vegas, but having experienced several disorienting flash floods over the years in the Mojave Desert’s punishing triple-digit heat, I’d say it’s probably wise not to rest too much faith atop an infrastructure built on a mirage. This iteration of the NBA’s Las Vegas summer league marks 20 years since its inaugural season in 2004, when only one-fifth of the league participated. It has since become a hallmark of the league’s endless cycle, a time to see the same glimmers of brilliance in Josh Selby as in Damian Lillard; in Anthony Randolph as in Victor Wembanyama. It’s all part of the fun. Becoming infatuated with an illusion is as essential a summer league experience as bumping into someone in a Cherokee Parks jersey from his Vancouver Grizzlies days.

It’ll be a particularly strange LVSL this year, feeding from all the anti-hype of last month’s draft. You would be forgiven if you’re not positive what Zaccharie Risacher even looks like. There will be no aliens in our midst for my colleague Tyler Parker to hallucinate over. Nearly 20,000 people will crowd into the Thomas & Mack Center on Friday afternoon not to see the no. 1 pick of the 2024 NBA draft, but the 55th. Nonetheless, the 10-day event is the initial proving ground these young talents get before preparation officially kicks in for the upcoming season. If any player truly has that “it” factor, it’s usually spotted first in Vegas.

Here’s what I’ll be tuning in for this weekend:

Did the Hawks Make the Right Call?

A bit of a facetious question. Had Wemby’s development arc been fossilized after his first summer league performance, we’d be looking back at one of the most underwhelming rookie seasons in history. Luckily, that isn’t how things work at all. Still, the lack of enthusiasm surrounding Risacher is telling. The no. 1 pick is third in FanDuel’s early Rookie of the Year odds, behind no. 2 pick Alex Sarr and no. 9 pick Zach Edey. It’s hard to apply much star-level projection to a prospect whose most bankable abilities are sliding his feet on the perimeter and hitting corner 3s at a high clip.

Risacher’s first game, against Sarr and the Washington Wizards on Friday, will be perhaps the second-most anticipated game of summer league day one. Sarr isn’t without significant worries—it’ll take time for him to figure out his role on offense without any standout go-to move. But for a Wizards team willing to raze its entire roster to the ground in search of a future cornerstone talent, it’s a bit easier to believe that Washington will allow and encourage the athletic and mobile Sarr to expand his game beyond the margins. Maybe Risacher gets some on-ball creation reps in Vegas to unlock new trajectories in his game, but it wouldn’t exactly prepare him for life alongside Trae Young, whose usage could ramp up to new heights now that Dejounte Murray is in New Orleans. Risacher is just the latest wing gamble in recent Hawks draft history; half of which are no longer on the team. All parties are smart to downplay the pressure of the “no. 1 pick” distinction. That doesn’t mean it isn’t there.

Is Stephon Castle a Point Guard?

The mentorship that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander received from Chris Paul early in his career was foundational to the unique on-ball creator that SGA has become. Now it looks like San Antonio has a similar development plan in place for Castle, who has gotten a couple of early summer league reps at the California Classic. The first look at Wemby’s future running mate has been a mixed bag, but the potential is evident.

The no. 4 pick hasn’t shot the ball well thus far in Sacramento, but all eyes have been on his comportment initiating the offense as a lead guard. It doesn’t take long to see the outlines of the kind of creator the Spurs envision playing alongside Wemby. Castle’s strides are smooth, but his game is more about hard angles—the windows of separation he generates aren’t from burst but from shoulder bumps and leverage plays. He’ll need to shore up his perimeter game to keep those driving lanes open, but the poise, patience, and vision are there. A strength-based initiator is clearly something that the Spurs have been coveting, and Castle represents a more logical fit for that mold than Jeremy Sochan.

Who’s Gearing Up for a Year 2 Breakout?

The first glimpses of Kawhi Leonard as we know him now were revealed back in 2012 in Vegas. Leonard was coming off a stellar rookie season as a cog in the Spurs machine, a ready-made 3-and-D product who feasted from the corners and on timely cuts playing off San Antonio’s Big Three. He finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. He had some special performances in the postseason. There wasn’t much left to prove for him, so why was he at summer league? San Antonio wanted to give him some reps with the ball in his hands. Create his own shot, create for others. Holy hell did he. Kawhi played two games in Vegas that summer. That was all anyone needed to see. It was abundantly clear he was superior to every other player on the court, sleepwalking his way to 23 points in the first game, 27 in the second.

It’s become a badge of honor to be pulled from the action for being Too Good For Summer League. Brandon Miller, whose numbers for the Charlotte Hornets last season would have been good enough to take home ROY honors in most years, is an obvious candidate this year. His inclusion on the summer roster was interesting: He’s already proved himself an accomplished NBA bucket-getter. There are few answers at this level of competition for Miller’s combination of size, passing vision, and elite 3-point shooting volume. Only 17 other players in NBA history 6-foot-9 or taller have attempted at least 6.5 3-pointers per game in a season, and no one else did it as a rookie. What Charlotte will be looking for is the development of his ballhandling ability and improvements in his strength finishing around the rim. Those are the characteristics that separate stars from budding superstars. Should those two areas of emphasis pop, you won’t be seeing him in action past the weekend.

The stage is also set for combo guard Kobe Bufkin, both in Vegas and the Hawks’ new roster dynamic after the draft and the early flurry of free agency. This is his audition for the seat vacated by Murray. Bufkin averaged 23.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.9 assists in the G League last season as a high-usage self-creator and looked comfortable in the role. All he has to do in Vegas is transpose those numbers to summer league and make his new teammate Risacher look good in the process. Bufkin, who was drafted 15th in 2023, showed his off-ball savvy playing off advantages created for him at Michigan, but he spent most of his time in his pro rookie season in the G League with the College Park Skyhawks operating out of isolations and pick-and-rolls. That potential role versatility bodes well for Bufkin’s claim to a prime rotation spot for a Hawks team that still appears to be straddling the line between playoff contention and a full-scale rebuild.

Jarace Walker’s path to playing time in Indiana isn’t quite as clear-cut, which is probably why the Pacers will be experimenting with him at the wing during summer league. Walker was drafted on the premise of being a soft-skilled wrecking ball at the 4 with the length and bulk to play spot minutes at the 5, but his trajectory changed in the G League. Walker’s playmaking ability and confidence handling the ball enabled the Indiana Mad Ants to use him as a pick-and-roll operator, and his comfort shooting 3s from a standstill and (shockingly) off movement at more than twice the volume he saw in college, was a revelation. Indiana plays at a blistering tempo, but they’ve exercised restraint and patience in Walker’s development. Pascal Siakam’s midseason arrival and Obi Toppin’s steadiness as a sparkplug 4 has muddied the waters for Walker, though it’s a good problem to have from the Pacers’ perspective. But Walker’s talent might prove too much to ignore. His defensive tools have long been his calling card, and he’s now flashed a well-rounded offensive game that’s fit for the modern era. It seems like only a matter of time before his breakthrough. It could come as soon as this weekend.

Which Contenders Will Find Reliable Depth Pieces?

The scrimmage-y nature of summer league favors players who are supremely confident in calling their own shot, or are malleable enough to let the game flow through them. It’s a great way to find out whether your microwave scorer cooks a good pizza roll. It can be less instructive on the margins. Luckily, for Minnesota, that’s exactly what it’s looking for in Rob Dillingham, the no. 8 selection who was traded to the Timberwolves in an audacious draft-night swing. With Mike Conley Jr. in the twilight of his first-ballot Hall-of-Very-Good career, the Wolves need someone who can organize an offense and offer a jolt when the Wolves offense invariably enters its lulls. There won’t be too many players in Vegas with a deeper bag than Dillingham; we’ll all be intent on observing just how well his pull-up shooting and point-guard play translate against bigger and stronger competition.

The early reports from Salt Lake City’s summer league are in: Oklahoma City might’ve done it again. The Thunder’s new rookie duo of Dillon Jones and Ajay Mitchell have looked great in the lead-up to Vegas, with each player demonstrating skills that round out the Thunder’s areas of need. Jones has stayed true to what made him the Big Sky Player of the Year at Weber State, a shifty on-ball wing creator with true tenacity on the boards who happens to be built like an edge rusher. There’s some dog in Jones—he’ll fit right into the postgame chorus of woofs. Mitchell, a combo guard who emerged from the shadows of UC Santa Barbara, is a natural: Like his vet Gilgeous-Alexander, there is something beguiling about how he gets to his spots on the floor without requiring discernible explosiveness. His defensive playmaking instincts early on have been the icing on the cake, especially if he’s planning to compete for a spot on the depth chart behind players like Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace. Both Jones and Mitchell could add a level of secondary and tertiary playmaking where there was a significant dropoff from reserve units.

I find myself intrigued by the talent on the Celtics’ Vegas roster. Second-year player Jordan Walsh looked the part of a rotation-level wing at summer league last year, and kept that pace in the G League for the Maine Celtics, showcasing his athleticism and outstanding on-ball defensive potential. What might a season spent developing on a championship team bring out? Walsh is three and a half years younger than Celtics rookie Baylor Scheierman, who has a picture-perfect Funky White Boy game built around his 3-point shooting versatility. Also younger than Scheierman is fourth-year guard Jaden Springer, who was acquired by Boston at the trade deadline from Philly for practically nothing. Springer is no stranger to this setting; he was one of the leading scorers in Vegas last year. He has clear NBA talent on both ends of the floor as a strength-based creator and on-ball disruptor, but his reticence and inefficiency from 3 has hampered his viability at the highest level. I’m not ready to give up on Springer just yet.

As The Ringer’s own Michael Pina wrote yesterday, the Orlando Magic are all of a sudden looking like a team ready to contend. For as long as Jeff Weltman has been team president, the Magic have always looked at wingspan as the team’s draft-day North Star. In this micro-era of prosperity, the vision has been clarified: Orlando is stocked with players who are not only tall relative to their positions, but can make plays on the move. Highlighting the Magic’s summer roster are Anthony Black, Jett Howard, and Tristan da Silva, all players 6-foot-6 or taller who can dribble, pass, and shoot. Black is looking to refine his feel as a true point guard. Howard, who attempted nearly 10 3s per game in the G League last season, is hoping to claim a spot in the rotation as a versatile shooter off the dribble and when moving without the ball. First-round pick da Silva presents a shift in mentality for Orlando: not a shot at upside, but a play at stability and reliability as a gap-filler on both ends of the floor—without compromising the team’s core tenets of plus size and length.

So, sure, it’s a down year for hype, but it’s all a matter of perception and priorities. Las Vegas is every team’s first on-court step toward building something real in the upcoming season. All you have to do is look past the monuments being built by the Lakers loyalists in town, in the name of Dalton Knecht and Bronny James.