The Federal Reserve front-loading interest rate cuts to reignite a slowing US economy is still a possibility.
“I wouldn’t rule out 50 basis points, but 25 basis points strikes me as more likely,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius told Yahoo Finance at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference on Monday.
“I think there is a solid rationale for doing [a 50 basis point cut]. And the rationale is that five and three-eighths, five and a quarter to 5.5% is a really high fed funds rate. It’s the highest policy rate in the G10. It is despite the fact that the US has actually seen more progress on inflation than most G10 economies,” Hatzius added.
Investor attention is squarely on the Fed as it nears its next monetary policy decision on Sept. 18.
The Fed has widely telegraphed its first rate cut in several years as it looks to stabilize an economy that’s beginning to slow.
Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
This slowdown — which has unnerved investors the past month — has been seen everywhere from US manufacturing data to Dollar General’s (DG) and Dollar Tree’s (DLTR) earnings.
More recently, the August employment report renewed concerns on the Street about a steady cooling in the economy, in part because of elevated interest rates.
The economy added 142,000 jobs last month, below economist estimates for 160,000. July’s job figure — a surprise that disappointed the markets — was revised down to 89,000 from 114,000.
The sluggish patch of economic data has led to some on the Street speculating the Fed should cut rates by 50 basis points next week.
But pulling out such a bazooka could damage market sentiments, Hatzius and his industry peers believe.
“If the Fed were to cut by 50 basis points in September, we think markets would take that as an admission that it is behind the curve and needs to move to an accommodative stance, not just get back to neutral,” Bank of America US economist Aditya Bhave said in a client note.
“We think such aggressive cuts are not warranted based on the data we have in hand. And, if the Fed starts with a 50bp cut, less dovish forward guidance, either via Fedspeak or the dots, might lose credibility.”
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In the below Opening Bid episode, BNY CEO Robin Vince shares why he is looking for a series of interest rate cuts from the Fed that extend into 2025.
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