A hotter-than-expected jobs report released Friday sets up a contrast for the final month of the 2024 campaign as Democrats and Republicans prepare their closing economic arguments.
Should voters care about the fact that there are now more than 16 million more jobs in the US economy now than when President Joe Biden took office — or is the fact that prices rose by nearly 20% over that same stretch a more important measure?
Which side wins that argument could be a key advantage when voting ends on November 5 in the neck and neck contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
For today at least, the economic data was a tailwind for Democrats, with data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that the labor market had added 254,000 jobs in September and blowing away the 150,000 that economists had expected.
It comes as a final phase of the campaign where both campaigns are at full tilt but with an open question as to whether voter views, at least when it comes to the economy, are set.
“There’s a belief from history that people form their opinions about the economy kind of earlier in the year,” Kyle Kondik, the managing director of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said this week during an episode of Yahoo Finance’s Capitol Gains podcast.
But he added one major difference this time around. “With the swap out of Harris at the top of the ticket, it seems like Democrats are maybe in a little bit better position on the economy, although Trump generally still has advantages on that issue.”
Read more: What the 2024 campaign means for your wallet: The Yahoo Finance guide to the presidential election
As for Democrats, the response Friday morning echoed a familiar refrain of touting good jobs numbers (Friday’s numbers put the total tally for Biden over the 16 million milestone for the first time) but also quickly acknowledging the pain voters are feeling due to inflation.
“Today, we received good news for American workers and families,” Biden began his statement Friday before quickly noting inflation as well.
“Make no mistake: We have more to do to lower costs and expand opportunity,” he added.
It was a message repeated among a range of top Democratic figures.
“This is strong stable steady job growth, it’s the very definition of a solid recovery,” added acting Labor Secretary Julie Su in a Yahoo Finance Live appearance Friday morning.
But, like her colleagues, she quickly acknowledged lingering economic unease by adding that “we need to keep that up until everybody feels it.”
It’s a reflection of a trend pollsters have seen for nearly all of 2025 that suggests voters are more focused on prices than jobs.
“The golden rule is stay away from anything macro that is about other people’s lives,” said Adam Green, the co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, in an interview earlier this year.
Green has presented his group’s polling results to the White House and the Harris campaign, adding that the Democratic message can’t only “be that somebody 3000 miles away is getting a job.”
Republicans’ reaction to Friday’s report indicated their focus is expected to say squarely on inflation, specifically that prices that are up nearly 20% during the Biden/Harris administration.
“Under Kamala, prices have already soared,” the narrator intoned in a new Trump campaign ad released yesterday.
Some Trump allies also responded to the news Friday by making baseless claims the report was doctored.
Make America Great Again Inc. — a super PAC supporting Trump — called it a “fake jobs report” charging that “Americans don’t trust these reports because they feel the pain of this economy every single day.”
Polling has tended to show Trump with a lead — but a small one — on economic issues overall as Kamala Harris has made up ground on the topic.
Trump has shown a lead on the economy in most polls but some polls have shown the race within the margin of error or even a narrow Harris lead.
The Financial Times has recently had two polls showing Harris more trusted on the economy. A Morning Consult poll of the economy had the two candidates tied at 46%.
Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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