Despite 24,000 new jobs, Alberta’s unemployment rate edged up to 7.5 per cent in November.
That’s an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
It means Alberta now has the fourth highest unemployment rate in the country, behind Newfoundland and Labrador (10.8 per cent), Prince Edward Island (eight per cent) and Ontario (7.6 per cent).
The national unemployment rate is sitting at 6.8 per cent, up from 6.5 per cent in October.
Alberta Central economist Charles St-Arnaud says not to panic — the province’s rising unemployment rate doesn’t mean people are losing their jobs. There are just so many people moving to the province and looking for work, and the labour market can’t keep up.
“We’re in a very special environment right now in Alberta,” said St-Arnaud.
“Usually in the past when we’ve seen the unemployment rate going higher, it was usually because there was a recession and you started to see workers losing their jobs. We’re not seeing that at the moment.”
Calgary Economic Development is keeping a close eye on the local numbers.
In November, Calgary’s unemployment rate rose to 7.9 per cent — the third highest unemployment rate of all major Canadian cities.
Afiba Nyamekye, the CED’s director of data and intelligence, said that’s largely in line with national trends.
But what’s unique about Calgary is that the city has the highest labour force participation rate in the country, at 70.4 per cent, she said. That’s defined as the rate of people older than 15 who have a job or are looking for a job.
“It’s actually the highest year-over-year participation rate, which attests to how the population has grown and the fact that as much as possible, we’re trying to absorb as many new entrants into the labour market,” said Nyamekye.
She’s hoping the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates further next week to encourage investment in businesses and increase demand for labour.
Back at Alberta Central, St-Arnaud said he’s predicting the interest rate will be cut by another 50 basis points.
He also expects to see balance restored next year as the federal government lowers immigration targets to try to slow population growth. But with an upcoming administration change south of the border, St-Arnaud said it’s hard to know for sure.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty on the economic outlook for next year. We have the threat of the U.S. tariffs that could plunge the Canadian economy in a recession.”
While he isn’t overly concerned about the province’s unemployment rates, he said he’s worried about Alberta’s slowing wage growth — “only 2.3 per cent, so much weaker than the rest of Canada.”
He said Alberta’s wages are still higher than the national average, but that gap is closing relatively quickly and he’ll be keeping an eye on whether the province will lose its “Alberta Advantage.”
