Axial Seamount is a large, young volcano located at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, about 480 kilometres west off the Oregon coast.

Following its discovery in 1970, the volcano has become the site of the world’s first underwater observatory, providing crucial information for researchers working to better understand volcanic activity.

Axial Seamount is also the most active submarine volcano in the Pacific Northwest, having erupted multiple times since it was first discovered. Its most recent eruption was in April of 2015, causing thousands of underwater earthquakes to be detected and for the surrounding ocean floor to sink about 2 metres.

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Now signs are pointing to another eruption happening before the end of 2025.

In a blog dedicated to monitoring Axial Seamount, run by Bill Chadwick of Oregon State University and Scott Nooner of the University of North Carolina at Wilmington for Oregon State University, the volcano has been inflating at an increasing rate.

Axial Seamount location on Juan de Fuca plate (United States Geological Survey)

As of the latest blog post on Oct. 26, 2024, the caldera has fully re-inflated to the threshold of where it was at when the volcano previously erupted in 2015.

The number of earthquakes surrounding the volcano has also shown a sharp increase throughout 2024, with hundreds being detected every day.

It’s unlikely that an eruption would have any impacts on those on land, but it would provide an excellent opportunity for researchers to gather data on volcanic eruptions.

It is also highlighted in the posts that a 2025 eruption is not absolutely certain. Similar to weather forecasting, there are many factors at play that are always changing in unexpected ways.

Thumbnail image credit to NOAA