By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Asian stocks began the year on a dour note on Thursday as they struggled for traction after a jittery close to 2024, while the U.S. dollar charged higher and investor sentiment stayed cautious ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The start of the New Year was shaping up to be a less favourable one for equities, as uncertainty over the policies of incoming U.S. President Trump and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook looked set to dominate the market rhetoric for now.
While global shares closed out 2024 with a strong yearly gain of nearly 16%, they had clocked a monthly loss of more than 2% in December.
The same was the case for MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, which slid 1.2% in December though registered a gain of more than 7% for 2024.
The index was last down 0.5% in the early Asian session on Thursday, with volume thinned given a trading holiday in Japan.
“I think we’re now in a bit of a twilight zone between now and January 20,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
Trump will be sworn in as president of the United States on Jan. 20 for his second term in office.
“It’s very unusual for stocks not to get a positive December … and that worries me a little bit, because when markets don’t go up at times like this when they should be going up, it generally means that there are other concerns,” said Sycamore.
“There’s a pretty common consensus out there that Trump’s going to run the economy red hot.”
Chinese stocks similarly fell at the open, with the CSI300 blue-chip index last down 1.43% while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 1%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 1.74%.
Investors are closely monitoring China’s economic recovery in 2025 after officials pledged a slew of support measures to promote growth, though Trump’s talk of tariffs in excess of 60% on imports of Chinese goods could pose significant headwind.
“To avoid a more material slowdown as domestic obstacles and external pressures look set to mount, China will remain heavily reliant on policy support,” said Yingrui Wang, China emerging market economist at AXA Investment Managers.
“With Donald Trump’s return to the White House amplifying external risks and an already fragile domestic economy, a debt-deflation trap leading to a generational downturn could be perilously close if upcoming stimulus measures are delayed or misdirected.”
Elsewhere, South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.07%. The index was Asia’s worst performer in 2024, with a loss of more than 22% in dollar terms owing in part to a deepening political crisis.
