Affordability was one of the top issues — if not the top issue — for British Columbians during the 2024 provincial election. After several years of high inflation, residents are looking for a bit of a break at the cash register.

But it’s unclear if there’ll be relief for consumers in 2025, with the province’s economic forecast uncertain due to a couple of unpredictable factors, economist Ross Hickey says.

First, in November, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a “GST holiday,” cutting general sales tax on a select number of items including books, take-out and baby items for two months, starting Dec. 14.

At the same time, he announced $250 payments for Canadians who earned $150,000 or less in 2023, in April.

This, along with president-elect Donald Trump’s threat of a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods, makes it a little tougher for experts to know what lies ahead, Hickey said.

“When President Trump is in office, uncertainty increases,” said Hickey, an associate professor of economics at the University of British Columbia-Okanagan.

“When COVID first emerged, uncertainty increased dramatically as well, right? I think a lot of Canadians and a lot of people thought that the days of increasing uncertainty were behind us, but it seems like there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty to go around, particularly when it comes to prices.”

Inflation

On a positive note, inflation rates are not expected to be as high as they have been in previous years, according to economist David Williams.

In October, B.C.’s inflation rate was about 2.4 per cent — slightly higher than the national average of two per cent.

The consumer price index reached an all-time high of 8.1 per cent in June 2022.

However, that doesn’t mean prices are going down, according to Williams, who is vice-president of policy of the Business Council of British Columbia.

“It just means that they’re not going to go up as fast,” he said. “Things are going to continue to get more expensive.”

Housing, groceries, ICBC, ferries

Williams believes the things that concern the people the most are food and housing — and, over the past five years in B.C., there has been about a 30 per cent increase in the cost of both, he said.

High rent, mortgage rates and property taxes have all contributed to high housing costs, he added, and he doesn’t expect those costs to plummet in 2025.

WATCH: B.C. has highest rent in the country:

The province announced in August that the 2025 rent cap would be three per cent, slightly lower than the rent cap from 2024.

However, Williams notes, that doesn’t stop landlords from raising the rent on units between tenants.

“It’s a pretty extraordinary amount of rent increases we’ve seen,” he said.

While mortgage rates decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, he said rates are creeping up — as are home insurance rates and property taxes.

ICBC rates were frozen in 2022 as a way to help with rising inflation. But that ends in 2025.

Hickey said ICBC rates are likely to increase as rising inflation over the past couple years has made it more expensive to provide that insurance — but it’s unclear by how much they will go up.

As for ferries, in October the B.C. Ferry Commission said fares could increase up to 3.2 per cent annually, starting April 1, 2025 — significantly lower than the 9.2 per cent cap proposed in March 2023.

Tax and tariffs

As for the GST holiday that started mid-December, Hickey said it might ultimately have the opposite effect at the till.

For example, some retailers may forego sales and discounts on items because the feds have in some ways already put those items on sale, he said.

“Prices that don’t include tax may stay the same in an environment where we would have expected them perhaps to go down,” Hickey said.

“On the other hand, what’s going to happen when the tax comes back in February? Are retailers going to respond at that time by lowering their prices or can we expect the prices to stay the same?”

But the 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods that Trump has threatened could have an even bigger impact on British Columbians.

Williams said about half of B.C.’s exports go to the U.S., including energy, wood and minerals.

“A 25 per cent tariff on our goods crossing the border really does unpin our prosperity. So it’s pretty concerning.”

What concerns him most is that Canada and B.C. already have weak economies, relatively speaking, and he worries about what this would mean for the country and the province moving forward.

“We’ve got a lot of homegrown problems to layer on the tariffs, as well,” Williams said.

“That would be an additional challenge because trade is about a third of our economy. If we lose that, we’re really going to be struggling from an already challenging position.”