Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.
Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.
Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.
Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.
Let’s dive into my Week 9 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.
One of the most critical division matchups will take place in Week 9 as the Packers have a chance to take a big position in the NFC North with a win. The Lions will put some gap between them and the rest if they take down another northern rival.
It is only due to the magnitude of it that we’re even talking about Jordan Love playing in this game. In any other context, it would make sense to rest Love while dealing with another injury as the team heads into a Week 10 bye. But they can’t afford to cede a game to Detroit, so he’s questionable for now.
The Packers offense is a strong but crowded unit. All four of the top receivers have a double-digit target share, as do both Josh Jacobs and tight end Tucker Kraft.
The two men in the sun right now are Kraft and Doubs. Kraft is getting it done on after-catch efficiency. He’s averaging nearly 11 yards after the catch per reception. Doubs has been on a hot streak the last three games since returning from suspension. However, he doesn’t maintain a dominant target share and the eye of efficiency could move to anyone else at any moment. Basically: don’t lose faith in a guy like Jayden Reed.
There is not a WR1 on the Packers but we knew that was going to be the case. That’s what summer ADP indicated for months in the offseason and it’s played out to expectations. No one will be consistent but boom weeks will come, as long as Love is under center.
The Lions offense is a cut-and-dry unit. While they’re one of the most fascinating teams to watch, they aren’t one that requires a full preview; the same guys who eat will do so every week.
It’s worth noting that even in a blowout win, tight end Sam LaPorta turned in a season-high expected fantasy points and even had a touchdown called back in the first game without Jameson Williams.
I’m still calibrating to how good the Packers defense is, but I’ve been impressed with their recent work sending blitzes and stunts. Jared Goff has been downright brilliant against the blitz this year. If Green Bay sends heat, expect Goff to pepper LaPorta underneath and hit No. 1 wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown relentlessly over the middle.
The Rams got all their guys back in Week 8 and promptly returned to being one of the most effective offenses in the NFL. When Matthew Stafford, his top two receivers and Kyren Williams are all on the field, they’re not just great — they’re historically strong.
Puka Nacua really is the straw that stirs the drink. The second-year receiver ran fewer than 70% of the routes and was indeed on a snap count. However, he was targeted on a career-high 40.9% of those plays and handled two rush attempts. You just felt how his speed, toughness and control at the sideline launched the ceiling of this unit skyward.
That makes the fact that Nacua suffered another injury to the same knee that dogged him for months all the more critical. Sean McVay says there’s no structural damage, thankfully, and it does seem at this point that there’s a chance he does play in Week 9, though he’s listed as questionable.
Cooper Kupp is still an excellent player when healthy and can be a volume sponge. But at this point in his career, he doesn’t impact the game or create explosive plays like Nacua. The Rams won’t be the same if it’s one of those 15-20 target games for Kupp should Nacua miss, even if his fantasy managers will rejoice.
On the other side, the Seahawks offense continues to put out incredible passing volume stats, but they aren’t an efficient unit. They’re outside the top 15 in dropback EPA and success rate.
This unit needs DK Metcalf back in the worst way. None of the other wideouts make the defense break off the coverage. Unfortunately, he’s already been ruled out for Week 9.
You felt his absence in the run game as well as the aerial attack. Kenneth Walker III never found room to run against Buffalo’s softer front. The Seahawks have never leaned into the run this season but Week 9 might be a moment they start given the Rams’ weakness stopping the run and the recent strong play from young guys like Jared Verse rushing the passer.
One of the biggest storylines of the week is Anthony Richardson being benched for Joe Flacco. There is a ton of micro real-life football analysis and big-picture examination to do in the wake of his decision. We can have those conversations for days.
Long clip alert, but with Anthony Richardson’s benching causing a lot of discourse around the NFL’s “QB development” problem, I wanted to share the full conversation @Nate_Tice and I had on my show today, in which we tried to reflect on whether this is actually an issue. pic.twitter.com/XPGsSPaHMZ
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 31, 2024
From a fantasy perspective, this stabilizes the outlook of everyone in the Colts offense. Joe Flacco isn’t a flawless player but he is a veteran who can execute the offense. Flacco has also been willing to take the open layup throws in Shane Steichen’s offense.
Josh Downs is the obvious winner. In the three games Flacco took most of the quarterback snaps for Indy (Weeks 4 to 6), Downs was targeted on 33.7% of his routes run. He also tied Michael Pittman Jr. for a team-high five red-zone targets, scoring twice. Downs has been the best Colts receiver this season and is a nightmare separator in the slot against man coverage. He looks like a Tyler Lockett-type interior weapon out there, not just some popgun slot receiver. Minnesota has given up 93 yards per game to slot receivers this season as teams have shied away from pushing the ball outside against its amoeba coverages.
There will be other guys who will step forward with Flacco on the field. Pittman is a good player but he hasn’t played great football the last few games as he tries to work through a painful back injury that almost sent him to IR. Flacco will form a strong chemistry with the stable wideout if he gets right. We also need to keep an eye on rookie AD Mitchell. The Texas product has made his share of mistakes at the catch point this season, but he’s a strong separator who just has never built chemistry with Richardson.
On Minnesota’s side, it’s gone a bit underreported that the offense has started to slip. Since Week 5, the Vikings rank 24th in EPA per play and 27th in success rate. That’s downright bad.
A couple of things could help get the group back on track. First, they should consider taking the air out of the football. Aaron Jones has been efficient this season and the overall run game has been good. Yet, Minnesota remains a top-10 team in neutral pass rate.
Also, getting T.J. Hockenson back for his first game in Week 9 will help. The passing game is at its best when they can run some high-low concepts with Jefferson down the field and Hockenson as the safety valve. He can be a steadying force for Sam Darnold. He’ll also likely return to top-10 tight end status within the next few weeks.
Most important Buccaneers storyline: Cade Otton turned out to be the big winner in the wake of the wide receiver injuries. I expected this to be the case but he received even more work than I called for. Otton was second among tight ends in expected fantasy points, per Fantasy Points Data, in Week 8. Essentially, this just quantifies total player usage. Otton actually ranked 13th among all pass-catchers, falling in a similar category as elite wideouts like Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill. If that level of work holds, he will be one of the most productive tight ends in the league in the back half of the season. The Chiefs defense gives up more production to slot receivers and tight ends than players on the perimeter.
Most important Chiefs storyline: DeAndre Hopkins was not close to a full-time player in his debut with the Chiefs. He ran a route on just 34% of the team dropbacks. He ran fewer routes than Justin Watson, Xavier Worthy and Mecole Hardman at the position. However, he did draw three targets on his plays. He will play more as time goes on. The interesting thing to watch is where he will line up. The role that Andy Reid described last week did not come to pass.
Andy Reid mentioned understanding/awareness of space multiple times here. The DeAndre Hopkins in-season #ReceptionPerception success rates vs. zone was significantly better than vs. man coverage. So while he doesn’t bring the YAC juice JuJu and Rice do, some slot work would… https://t.co/hm6DMPCMOV
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 24, 2024
Hopkins lined up outside on over 90% of his snaps and averaged 16 air yards per target. While Hopkins will get some power-slot reps because he knows how to settle against zone coverage, he doesn’t bring the YAC juice of a Rashee Rice or JuJu Smith-Schuster. So expect to see Hopkins primarily line up at X, as that’s always been his primary position, and that’s the biggest area of need for Kansas City. This whole Chiefs passing game will face an extremely soft secondary in the Bucs’ unit this week.
Most important Bears storyline: It could not have been a more disturbing post-bye showing by the Bears offense in Week 8. The unit looked non-viable for the first three quarters, and Caleb Williams wasn’t playing with any level of control. When the passing game and Williams did get itself under control, Shane Waldron put a stopper to the momentum by giving the ball to a backup offensive lineman at the 1-yard line. This offense needs to be near-elite to support viable options in fantasy given how crowded the target tree is. We are still far away from being able to call Chicago anything close to that kind of offense. Five players have double-digit target share marks since Week 5, and DJ Moore leads the team with just 21.7%. To make a comparison, it’s a similarly spread-out attack to the Packers with a worse quarterback and overall environment.
Most important Cardinals storyline: We got some different usage for Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 8, as I outlined on this week’s Football 301:
And yes, while I know it’s been talked to death, I had to note the type of routes Kyler Murray targeted Marvin Harrison Jr. on were different in Week 8 on this week’s Football 301.
Also, if obsessing over WR route tree assignments is wrong, I don’t want to be right. https://t.co/xJdFWYeEH0 pic.twitter.com/sVjMF4yoib
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 31, 2024
Harrison ran a vertical, low-percentage route tree in the season’s first seven weeks. Last week, he got rolling on runway routes where he can use his polish and savvy to get free over the middle of the field for explosive plays. Not only does this suit his skill set best, but it’s where Kyler Murray operates at the highest level as a passer. We have to hope this continues to be the way the Cardinals run their passing game because it works best for all the players involved.
Most important Cowboys storyline: The Cowboys have arrived at what’s becoming an annual portion of their season where all roads lead back to funneling CeeDee Lamb targets. Struggling to get anything else going? Time to saddle up No. 88 with a whopping 17 targets. It might get more extreme than ever this season given the surrounding players on offense. Everyone knew the Cowboys didn’t have enough talent coming into 2024, and that is the exact place we’ve arrived as the actual games play out. The wide receivers beyond Lamb are deep bench options, the veterans in the running back corps haven’t been good in years and the offensive line is a young group. Even Jake Ferguson, a good player at tight end, is dealing with a knee injury. We could see Lamb get an absurd amount of volume in the second half of the season.
Most important Falcons storyline: Kyle Pitts has gotten more involved in recent weeks. Over the last two games, he has a 24.8% share of the air yards and leads the team in receiving yards. The big difference for Pitts is that his average depth of target has dropped to 7.9. Getting Pitts more of these layup targets over the middle against linebackers has been huge. In previous seasons, he would play more outside receiver and line up against cornerbacks who he couldn’t beat. As an in-line tight end and slot receiver, he’s more of a true matchup nightmare. This offense was already trending up from its early season woes but now, if they get Pitts activated, there’s another dimension to uncover.
Most important Dolphins storyline: In the three games Tua Tagovailoa has started this season, running back De’Von Achane has target totals of seven, seven and eight. He’s not come close to that total in any of the other five games he’s played this year. It was a priority talking point in the offseason that Achane gets more involved in the receiving game. Tagovailoa has followed those marching orders, and Achane has been a reliable outlet receiver for Miami. This has had an impact on Jaylen Waddle’s workload, as the dynamic wideout hasn’t seen more than eight targets this season and that was all the way back in Week 1.
Most important Bills storyline: It’s merely a two-game sample but the Bills have become much more pass-heavy since trading for Amari Cooper. Buffalo has been excellent as a downhill, gap-heavy run team dating back to last season. That said, we know that Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and can be the leading actor in a pass-heavy attack. With Cooper in the mix, they also now have the receiving talent to support such an approach. Cooper didn’t have the big game in Week 8, but teammates Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir took off. Shakir continued to thrive in the slot and drew a season-high 10 targets. Coleman has really come into his own as a tight-coverage target and after-catch threat. With Cooper taking over the X-receiver, he’s been in a more comfortable position where his athleticism and size can take over, and his lack of separation matters a little less.
Most important Chargers storyline: The Chargers have come out much more pass-heavy on the other side of their bye week. This is a pretty significant development and Justin Herbert has played extremely well in the last three games. The biggest winner in the wake of this change is rookie receiver Ladd McConkey, who was outrageously good on film in Week 8.
Ladd McConkey’s Week 8 film is sweet. You really see all of the skills (route running, stemming off routes to make an easy target, ball-tracking, YAC) that made him a great prospect translate to the NFL.
And I think you really see Herbert’s immense trust in him on display on… pic.twitter.com/d4QHWQmM9G
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 28, 2024
McConkey had a few injury issues in Weeks 6 and 7 but is now closer to full health. You saw the results with over 100 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints. You can tell Herbert has a ton of trust in the rookie receiver and that he’s an advanced technician. The Browns play more single-high than any defense in the NFL, per Fantasy Points Data. This will put McConkey in single-coverage situations, and we’ve already seen he can thrive against those looks.
Most important Browns storyline: We continue to examine the wide receiver volume distribution alongside tight end David Njoku in Cleveland in a post-Amari Cooper world, especially now that Deshaun Watson has been removed from the equation. In Jameis Winston’s first start last week, Cedric Tillman provided an encore to his breakout game in Week 7. Tillman was targeted nine times and led the team in air yards as the X-receiver. We should buy in on his liftoff. However, Elijah Moore was the receiver who led the team with 11 targets. Moore is a good player who has been lost in bad environments throughout his career and admittedly wore out his welcome in New York.
I think these two players will be the lead wideouts on the team, but don’t forget about Jerry Jeudy. I’ve always been lower than consensus on him as a player but he’s a good WR3 who will likely trade off production weeks with Moore. That’s another reason to like Tillman; his role as the X-receiver stands out as singular in this room.
Most important Broncos storyline: We may need to recalibrate our feelings on Bo Nix, as the rookie is both playing well and taking on a bigger role in captaining the Broncos offense. Over the last three weeks, Nix has left the “dink and dunk” nature of his play behind as he’s eighth among quarterbacks in deep throw rate, fifth in air yards and ninth in completion rate over expected, per Fantasy Points Data. His rushing ability has been a big boost to the unit overall as well. He’s second among quarterbacks in yards on scrambles in this same span. The Broncos get a matchup this week with a Ravens secondary that was already vulnerable to the deep pass and is now dealing with personnel issues on the back end. Nix is in a nice position to keep up his recent stretch of solid production.
Most important Ravens storyline: Diontae Johnson was traded to the Ravens this week as it no longer made sense for Carolina to employ the disgruntled wideout. Johnson heads to a contender to help boost an already electric offense. I wrote up a full reaction to the trade earlier this week but the pressing question for this week is just how much he plays. Josina Anderson of CBS reported that Johnson is not, at this time, expected to unseat either Zay Flowers or Rashod Bateman in the starting lineup. That makes sense, as Johnson is a rental and those guys are homegrown players producing well in their roles. He adds a third man-coverage-beating presence to the room who should get more playing time as the weeks go along.
The Ravens have faced Cover-1 at the 8th-highest rate this season because, as @Nate_Tice mentions here, teams are trying to account for the run game. When you get those looks, it’s paramount that you have perimeter separators. The Ravens have a couple of guys who can do that, but… https://t.co/zu8vYdkccI
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 29, 2024
Johnson played X-receiver for the Carolina Panthers but had his most efficient season with the Steelers in 2023 when he moved around the formation as a slot and flanker option. Week 9 will be spent looking for any early clues about how he will fit into a now-crowded pass-catching corps on a run-heavy offense.
Most important Jaguars storyline: Jacksonville just lost Christian Kirk for the season and may be without Brian Thomas Jr. in this game. We know Gabe Davis is not a target-earning player, so it’s worth exploring the possibility of other players getting a volume boost in the offense. We saw when Christian Kirk missed time last season that Evan Engram received a significant target boost. This makes sense, as he’s essentially a slot player. He projects as a top-five tight end volume sponge on this slate. Second-year receiver Parker Washington is the next slot receiver up on the depth chart and will be asked to shoulder more snaps with Kirk out. There is no direct replacement for Thomas on the outside, so look for Engram and Washington inside to get the target increases if the rookie misses time.
Most important Eagles storyline: The Eagles have cratered to 29th in the NFL in neutral pass rate this season. With the way this team wins, it makes complete sense. The run-blocking up front has been sublime, Saquon Barkley has been dominant and Jalen Hurts’ rushing efficiency has ticked up. The pass-catchers can still get home in this matchup. DeVonta Smith will always be a bit more volatile in this type of attack as the secondary receiver but he showed last week he’s capable of special plays no matter the target total. Meanwhile, A.J. Brown is uniquely positioned to crush this matchup. He’s one of the best man-beaters in the NFL, and the Eagles know it. He is targeted on 37% of his routes against man coverage, and the Jaguars are one of the most man-coverage-heavy defenses in the league.
Most important Raiders storyline: Brock Bowers leads all pass-catchers in receptions on the season and he should continue to pile up production as a rookie. However, since the Raiders Week 4 game in a post-Davante Adams world, Jakobi Meyers ranks seventh in the NFL with a 27.5% share of his team’s targets. He’s only played three games in that span, so this may skew the results but there is no denying he’s been a funnel target when on the field. Most NFL passing concepts will push the ball to the top wide receiver on the team over a tight end, especially a guy who operates over the middle and on in-breaking routes. Meyers fits both descriptions. If he keeps this up, he may be one of the most underrated fantasy options at the position.
Most important Bengals storyline: Rather quietly, rookie wide receiver Jermaine Burton reached a season-high in playing time, running a route on 42.5% of the Bengals’ dropbacks in Week 8. This is crucial because, without Tee Higgins in the mix, the Bengals offense is much less dangerous down the field and has to bump everyone to less ideal positional deployment.
Talking through some of the issues the Bengals offense has faced in the passing game and why getting rookie Jermaine Burton, who is coming off a season-high in routes run, ramped up could help open it up if Tee Higgins misses more time. pic.twitter.com/SN2EGlUIwY
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 1, 2024
Burton must continue to earn the trust of the coaching staff and Joe Burrow, and cut out simple mistakes. However, he’s brought juice to the team in limited looks with a few deep catches this year. That’s exactly what this team needs when Higgins misses time, this year and likely when he moves on in 2025. Burton could ramp up in the second half of this season, and perhaps Week 8 was the beginning of that movement.
One reason to maybe watch: Jayden Daniels was adamant that he would not change his style of play despite carrying an uncomfortable rub injury into Week 8. The rookie was true to his word. Daniels scrambled six times for 48 yards and threw deep on 15.8% of his throws. There was no real difference in his overall game from a stylistic standpoint. We’ve already seen this rookie passer take on the Giants once before and survive their pass rush. They were healthier back in Week 2 when Daniels secured a win for the Commanders. We should have no hesitations with Daniels as he continues to march toward a smash Offensive Rookie of the Year finish.
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One reason to maybe watch: It sounds like the Siants will get Derek Carr back under center this week. Carr was off to a strong start this season and the offense has largely crumbled in his absence. Not all of that was due to quarterback play; injuries along the offensive line and at wide receiver have taken the teeth out of this unit. The zone run plays don’t hit quite as hard with replacement players on the interior offensive line and not having Rashid Shaheed for the trademark play-action deep shots takes the roof off the attack. Carr isn’t returning to an offense with the exact same conditions, but he can still give guys like Chris Olave better quarterback play than they would have received with the younger backups.
One reason to maybe watch: Tough one. Let’s go with a Calvin Ridley heat-check after his eruption Week 8 performance. Ridley had 12 catches for 183 yards in Weeks 1 through 7 this season before totaling 10 catches for 143 yards in Week 8 alone. Before you assume this was all the result of meaningless junk time against prevent defense at the end of a blowout game against Detroit, Ridley amassed 118 yards on six targets in the first quarter. He’d been clamoring for some looks earlier in games a couple of weeks ago and finally got his wish. Was this a one-week fluke or a consolidation of power by Ridley in a post-DeAndre Hopkins version of the Titans offense? That’s at least something to watch for in this likely backup quarterback duel.
