The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
Additions: Lonnie Walker IV, Baylor Scheierman
Subtractions: Oshae Brissett, Svi Mykhailiuk
The Celtics posted the highest net rating of any team in five years, won 64 games and never played more than five games in a playoff series, cruising to last season’s championship. And they returned the entirety of the deepest playoff rotation in the league. There should be no doubt about this season’s title favorite.
The NBA has not produced a repeat champion since 2018 — for good reason. It is rich with talent. Players feel freer to swap uniforms, and even if everyone wants to stay, the new collective bargaining agreement makes it more punitive to keep them. The basketball landscape changes as fast as the rest of the world, and the Celtics ownership group’s intent to sell the team carries another degree of financial uncertainty.
Then again, everyone got paid. Al Horford, a 38-year-old who has made nearly $300 million in his career, is the only one in the rotation not signed through next season. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White both inked longterm extensions, and both seem comfortable ceding touches. There are no contracts to quibble over.
But beware human nature. Championships come with loads of potential distractions from the game. Everyone on the team sacrificed last season to collectively achieve an ultimate goal; how motivated are they to reach the same goal this season? Do their goals become individualized? Is Jayson Tatum driven to win an MVP award? Does that impact his partnership with Jaylen Brown? Chemistry frays in many ways.
Neither Celtics executive Brad Stevens nor head coach Joe Mazzulla expressed any reservations on media day about how their team would respond to the challenge of chasing a second straight title.
“They understand the target they have [on their backs],” said Stevens. “They understand how human nature will play a role against you. They understand it’s going to be very difficult to win the first game, win the second game, play 82 of them, and then see where you land after that. They’ve been through it.”
Meanwhile, a trio of elite Eastern Conference opponents improved their rosters. The Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks all signed wings this offseason in their quest to counter Tatum and Brown. New York’s additional acquisition of Karl-Anthony Towns may have further narrowed the 14-game chasm between the Celtics and second-place Knicks last season, and any corrosion of Boston’s championship mettle could close the gap altogether.
To which Brown said on media day, “I could care less what’s going on around the league.”
It does not help that Kristaps Porziņģis is sidelined to start the season. The Celtics are optimistic about his hastened progress from a rare ankle injury, but they must be careful with an oft-injured 7-foot-2 unicorn. Is too much asked of Horford? Do Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman play heavier into the center mix? Boston won its title largely without Porziņģis in last season’s playoffs, but the margins are slimmer.
In theory, the Celtics have all the answers, and they espoused them during their reintroduction to the media. But there are not theoretical titles. They are tangibly stitched into the banner that Boston will raise on opening night. Time to chase another one. Time to see if those answers were just lip service.
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It does not take a genius. Porziņģis returns healthy and stays that way, elevating Boston’s ceiling to unimaginable heights. Everyone on the roster is better for his championship experience and plays with a confidence that sharpens a killer rotation. Mazzulla mindmelds his roster into detaching entirely from the last title and attaching only to the idea of another. And they do what the past five champions could not — repeat, cementing themselves as a budding dynasty and one of the greatest teams in history.
Porziņģis’ health concerns linger throughout a season from hell. Tatum’s shooting woes continue, and his stubbornness to shoot through them disrupts the vibes of the NBA’s best starting five. Brown’s rising star overshadows Tatum, and chemistry crumbles from the top down. They cannot repair it in time to avoid an earlier playoff exit, and the new ownership group is unwilling to pay for the current roster next season. What made the Celtics so great, their depth, is gone, and so too is their championship window.
Piggybacking off of the uncertainty surrounding Porzingis’ health, fantasy managers are becoming equally concerned. Porzingis’ ADP fell to the ninth round over the past week — a drop-off of 10 spots to 98th overall. That said, you must take him if he slips beyond the mid-to-late ninth round. A true draft-and-stash, KP offers too much upside even if he requires a ramp-up program following his targeted December return date.
In the meantime, Tatum, White, Brown and Holiday will hold it down for fantasy managers as top 70 players. One other player to keep an eye on is Payton Pritchard. Thanks to Jaylen Brown’s honesty and trolling, we learned that the Celtics could scheme to get more opportunities for their key rotational players against lower-tiered opponents. As the presumed sixth man, Pritchard has proven to be an efficient and effective fantasy asset whenever he receives at least 20 minutes of action. — Dan Titus
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Boston could win 60 games in its sleep, with or without Porziņģis. Take the over.
