The SMNT is finally back in action for the first time since the 2024 Paris Olympics. In Window #2 of the 2025 AmeriCup Qualifiers, Canada will take on the Dominican Republic (Nov 21st) and Mexico (Nov 24th) in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. With tip off a couple weeks away, Canada Basketball officially unveiled their 15-man preliminary roster:
Guards:
Wings
Bigs
(* denotes my projected final 12)
First things first, Mfiondu Kabengele, if he does make the trip to Saskatoon later this month, is a huge get for the SMNT. As I wrote a couple weeks ago, Kabengele is having a breakout season in Venice at the EuroCup level and it’s only a matter of time before he gets scooped up by a EuroLeague club. Players of his calibre aren’t usually available for National Team duties in these windows (due to an ongoing dispute between FIBA and the EuroLeague) so it’s nice to see Canada Basketball proactively trying to incorporate him now. Perhaps that surprising invite to the Paris Olympics Training Camp this past summer came along with an unspoken agreement that Kabengele would be the focal point of the “Winter Core”. As the driver of the Mfiondu Kabengele bandwagon in the Canadian basketball media landscape, I’m ecstatic that he’s on this preliminary roster.
While it was obvious that the 2028 Olympic cycle would mean a cohort of new players establishing themselves in the “Winter Core”, I am a bit surprised with how many new faces are already involved, given this is the first scheduled games of the 2028 cycle. Only six players return from the Window 1 Qualifier games earlier this year in February and I wouldn’t be surprised if they make up the core of the rotation. I’m especially excited that Jackson Rowe has continued to be available despite playing in the G-League with the Santa Cruz Warriors. Trae Bell-Haynes meanwhile has had a superb start to his season overseas, even garnering some EuroLeague interest from Barcelona. With each window that passes, it’s getting more and more evident that Thomas Kennedy is becoming an integral part of the “Winter Core” and the amount of playmaking reps he gets will be something to track.
| Returning Players from Window 1 |
| Trae Bell-Haynes |
| Aaron Best |
| Kadre Gray |
| Thomas Kennedy |
| Lloyd Pandi |
| Jackson Rowe |
A total of six players are first-time invites to the SMNT and there is quite a bit of young talent being injected into Canada’s player pool. And by “young” I’m referencing the fact that the following players are relatively inexperienced at the professional level, despite being between the ages of 25-26, which isn’t young in NBA terms. Fardaws Aimaq is the biggest surprise invite to me. Just last year, the 6’11” C from British Columbia was playing in the NCAA (albeit as a 25 year old senior) for the University of California. Fast forward a year and Aimaq has had a strong start in the FIBA Europe Cup in his first pro season. Back in March when I had covered him along with Josh Codinera, I projected Aimaq as a future “Winter Core” Bench big down the line. It’s wild that he’s already slotting into that role with the SMNT in his 1st available window.
| First Time Invites |
| Fardaws Aimaq |
| Marcus Carr |
| Nate Darling |
| Quincy Guerrier |
| Stef Smith |
| Josip Vrankic |
Marcus Carr is another first time-invite that I think is a good fit for the “Winter Core”. He made the bold decision to skip the G-League and start his pro career immediately overseas with a EuroCup level Greek Club, Aris BC. While his first stint in Europe didn’t go smoothly, Carr has slowly been raising his stock in Israel, where he’s averaging 18.0 PPG (on 40.7/45.8/77.3 shooting splits) and 7.0 AST (small sample size of 4 games). He first made noise at Minnesota in his Junior season after some incredible scoring games, albeit at wildly inefficient clips. Since his transfer to Texas, Carr has developed quite well and he finished his collegiate career as the all-time Canadian NCAA D1 leader in assists and games played (he is 2nd all time in points as well). With the “Winter Core”, I think his tenacious and improved POA defense will be immediately impactful and should earn him a spot on the final roster in this Window. As his offensive game further matures, Carr can blossom into a key contributor to the SMNT.
While the addition of new talent (and reintroduction in the case of Tyler Ennis) has been a welcome surprise, the omissions from this preliminary roster are also something to note. SMNT stalwarts of the last two Olympic cycles like Phil Scrubb (1992), Thomas Scrubb (1991), Kaza Kajami-Keane (1994), Melvin Ejim (1992) and Kyle Wiltjer (1992) are all not making the trip to Saskatoon. By the time the 2028 Olympics roll around these vets will all be in their mid 30’s so it’s inevitable that they would eventually be phased out of the SMNT in the next four years. While I do think it’s a little premature to say their SMNT days are completely behind them as they all continue to be meaningful contributors for top-tier European domestic clubs, the timing of their omissions is quite interesting. Based on their unwavering commitments to the SMNT in the past, I have to assume that it’s Canada Basketball going in another direction for this qualifier window. Perhaps they have decided to use this AmeriCup as more of a “developmental” competition as they did in 2022 to bring more players into the fold.
Overall, this is a solid, balanced roster for the FIBA AmeriCup Qualifier level. There’s a good mix of SMNT experience along with new talent. There’s some high level shooting (Best, Darling) along with interior pop in the frontcourt (Kabengele, Aimaq). And Bell-Haynes and Ennis are steady playmaking guards that will keep the Canadian offense humming. It’s always a challenge to develop prospects while staying competitive and maintaining continuity, so it remains to be seen if this gradual integration approach will pay off for Canada Basketball.
Along with the preliminary roster, we also got some clarity on the SMNT head coaching duties moving forward. Nate Mitchell, who has served as a lead assistant coach in recent competitions with the SMNT has been officially named as the new head coach, presumably for the “Winter Core”. Meanwhile, the “Summer Core” head coach position is still a question mark as there hasn’t been any news about Jordi Fernández’s availability.
This won’t be the first time Mitchell leads the SMNT as he guided the young 2022 AmeriCup Canadian team to a surprising 4th place finish. He’s also been involved as the head coach at both installments of GLOBL JAM, which a handful of the invites also competed in so there is at least some familiarity with the new faces. In his Canadian head coaching appearances thus far, Mitchell has often overachieved with the National Team and I liked many of the offensive sets he ran in 2023. Overall, I like the hire and I’m excited to see what a more Mitchell-driven offense and defense (he loves to mix in some zone defense) looks like.
The head coaching news also marks the end of the Nate Bjorkgren era, one of the last remnants of Nick Nurse’s tenure with the SMNT. If you read my deep dive X’s and O’s piece covering Window 1, you’ll know that I thought Bjorkgren did a fantastic job building continuity from a schematic perspective. He masterfully blended in offensive actions from the Nurse and Fernández playbook and the aggressive full court pressure he played was a sneak peek of the frenetic perimeter defense of the 2024 Olympic team (where he served as a lead assistant coach). Since 2021, Bjorkgren has guided Canada’s “Winter Core” to a 9-1 record and turned them into a FIBA Americas juggernaut. It might have been a brief tenure, but he was an important member of the coaching staff with Canada Basketball.
While Canada currently sits atop Group C with a 2-0 record and +87 point differential, these November home games in Saskatoon against the Dominican Republic and Mexico are hugely consequential. For the 2025 FIBA AmeriCup, each group can only send 3 teams. Normally that’s not a high bar for Canada to clear, but Nicaragua (who are a distant 4th in Group C), as the hosts of the next AmeriCup, have automatically qualified.
That leaves the three strongest teams in the group fighting for two spots. While Canada remain the clear favourites in Group C, they will need to continue to take care of business. Their four remaining games (two in this window, two later on the road in February) are split between the Dominican Republic and Mexico. Winning three of the next four would all but clinch a qualifying spot for Canada at the 2025 AmeriCup.
You might ask yourself, why does the AmeriCup even matter? Well firstly, like any FIBA competition, there are ramifications on the FIBA World rankings (where Canada is currently ranked fifth), which themselves have future consequences for pot placements for the World Cup and Olympic draws. How does no more “Group of Death” sound?
But more importantly, the 2025 AmeriCup is the first step towards qualifying for the qualification rounds for the 2027 World Cup in Qatar. That’s a mouthful so I’ll put it in clearer terms. If Canada fails to qualify for the 2025 AmeriCup, they will not compete in the 2027 World Cup. That means their only shot of playing in the 2028 Olympics would be through a last-chance tournament, which Canada has historically struggled with (see Tomáš Satoranský in 2021 and Tony Parker in 2016). Long story short, to avoid that nightmare scenario, these Window 2 Qualifier games are important to win.
