Last Updated:
The Conservatives are massive favorites with betting sites to claim a decisive victory in the next general election as Canadians prepare to go to the polls this year.
Canada is preparing itself for a year of political turmoil, kickstarted by Justin Trudeau’s decision to resign as Prime Minister after nine years in power.
Trudeau confirmed he would be standing down as leader of the Liberal Party at the start of January, but would stay in office until his successor is elected.
Canada’s federal elections are due to take place on 20 October, but the pressure is growing to bring them forward.
With US President Donald Trump now in situ in the White House and threatening trade tariffs on Canada, there’s a sense of urgency to call an election and have a new permanent leader in place as soon as possible.
Political betting sites are offering a range of markets surrounding the election, including when it will take place, while there’s also a book open on the next leader of the Liberal Party.
Parliament is currently suspended until March 24 after being prorogued by Trudeau and when it resumes, it is expected the Liberal Party will have a new leader in place.
Bookmakers expect Mark Carney to be leading the Liberals with FanDuel pricing him at -700 to replace Trudeau after he officially announced his candidacy earlier this month.
The former Bank of England governor has been serving as a special economic adviser to Trudeau recently, but has never held a public office.
Chrystia Freeland is priced up as Carney’s biggest challenger at +340. The former Deputy PM and Finance Minster stood down last December and has been a vocal critique of Trudeau’s handling of the threats from Trump over imposing tariffs.
With several other high-profile ministers ruling themselves out of the race to be the next Liberal leader, it appears to be a straight fight between Carney and Freeland to lead the party into the election.
Whoever takes over from Trudeau, they are likely to face a vote of no confidence on the day parliament resumes. Rival parties have indicated they’ll table the motion as soon as they are back in parliament in order to force a general election.
Trudeau could request another prorogation, but should MPs return to Ottawa in March, it’s likely there could be an election not long after that.
The odds on betting apps indicate bookies expect a general election in the first half of the year with an election to take place between March and May priced at -390.
Voting to take place between June and August of this year is +200 on FanDuel, while its +1300 for the elections to be held on the current scheduled date of October 20.
Established and new betting sites alike are forecasting a landslide win for the Conservative Party.
The best price you can get on the Conservatives winning in -1600 on bet365 with every other bookie making Pierre Poilievre’s party far shorter for victory.
Opinion polls give Poilievre, a populist who has tapped into the resentment at the cost of living concerns, a 23-point lead over the Liberals.
The CBC News poll suggest the Conservatives could win between 200 and 240 seats as they seek their first election win since 2011.
The Liberal Party are as big as +1600 to retain power and could even be in danger of losing opposition status if the latest opinion polls are correct.
Bloc Québécois are forecast to overtake the New Democratic Party into third and even pose a threat to the Liberals if current trends continue.
Live Betting. News and Industry Updates. Sent Weekly.