The CFIB’s Business Barometer long-term index in Canada, which is based on 12-month forward expectations for business performance, declined for a third straight month to 49.5 in February 2025, the lowest in ten months, compared to a downwardly revised 54.5 in January.

The US tariff threats disrupted the upward trend seen until November, and despite implementation delay, rising uncertainty contributed to the steep drop in long-term optimism.

The monthly declines were substantial particularly in manufacturing (-7.8 points), retail (-7.4 points), wholesale (-6.8 points), and transportation (-6.8 points).

Meanwhile, the average wage increase planned for the next 12 months decreased slightly to 2.2%.