Canada does not stand to benefit from another Donald Trump term in the Oval Office if the former U.S. president is re-elected against Kamala Harris on Tuesday Nov. 5 for a “myriad of reasons” ranging from economy, foreign policy and immigration to climate change, according to multiple international relations and political science experts.
Canada’s concerns against Trump returning to the White House are legitimate and have surfaced time and again as economists continue to warn of tariffs depressing exports and reducing Canadian GDP under Trumpian policies. Experts on U.S.-Canada relations and foreign policy believe the impact of Trump returning to office will not just be limited to the economy, instead also expand to other areas that rank higher on Canada’s list of priorities.
Comparative politics specialist Dr. Lewis Krashinsky told Yahoo News Canada other than Trump’s policies triggering challenging times for the Canadian economy, there also lies the possibility of Canada feeling lonely at the global stage when having to fend off the “bullies.”
“It would be catastrophic. Trump’s tariffs policies would disrupt the Canadian economy, his immigration policies would create tremendous difficulties (moral, legal, financial) for Canada, and his foreign policies would mean that Canada would be on its own to deal with the bullies of the world—China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S.,” Saideman said.
After taking office in 2017, then-U.S. President Donald Trump wasted no time in destabilizing Canada, especially with changes to free trade and bringing in reforms over reproductive rights, immigration and climate change that went on to have a much deeper impact on Canada than the $2.7 billion trade relationship alone.
A specific concern shared by some experts is over the possibility of dealing with a “very different United States” under Trump’s rule that the world, and Canada, are not used to.
Promises made by Trump during campaign rallies in the lead up to Nov. 5 hint at an isolated Trumpian United States that could put ties with historic allies like Canada under serious strain, Fen Hampson, a co-chair on the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. relations at The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, told Yahoo News Canada.
“If Trump actually does some of the other things he says he will do, we will be dealing with a very different United States. One that is more isolationist, protectionist and unfriendly—he has said he will stop supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia and that he expects U.S. allies, including Canada, to do a lot more to look after their own defence and security,” Hampson shared.
Experts are also not ruling out the possibility of Canada going into recession as a result of a potentially incoming Trump administration likely imposing trade tariffs on global partners. Hampson forecast the overall consequences of Trump’s approach would not be good for the U.S. either.
“If Trump wins, the consequences will be potentially seismic and not just for Canada but globally. It is not just the tariffs that he says he will impose of U.S. trading partners—10-20 percent—and China—60 percent or higher. If we are not exempt from those tariffs, it would likely throw the Canadian economy into a recession,” Hampson said.
Inflation would rise under Trump because of his tariffs. U.S. growth would also stall. And the U.S. public debt would go through the roof because of the huge fiscal deficits he would be running up. That in turn would jack up interest rates, which have been coming down. Everyone will be poorer as a consequence and that includes Canadians.Fen Hampson, co-chair of Expert Group on Canada-U.S. relations, The Norman Paterson School of International Affairs
Stacy Douglas, an associate professor at the Department of Law and Legal Studies at Carleton University, says a Trump presidency is likely to dig into the social fabric that lays the foundation of highly touted Canadian policy like public education and universal healthcare. The programs are essential to promote equality and often aligned with Canadian values.
In general, I think a Trump victory would have the potential to further threaten the collective spirit that animates much of Canadian policy. That collective spirit is especially crucial for universal programs such as healthcare and public education. Luckily, we have these great bones in Canada but we have to work hard to protect them and to stop the erosion of public trust in these programs. This collective spirit and these universal programs are critical in the fight against the kind of mass inequality which plagues the U.S.Stacy Douglas, Associate Professor, Department of Law and Legal Studies at Carleton University
Cultural comparativist Philip Kaisary, says Trump’s return to office would mean the likely acceptance of “extreme rhetoric” on a variety issues concerning Canadians. Kaisary authored an article called “They’re eating the pets: The deep history behind Trump’s racist, anti-Haitian lies” for an online human rights publication called Lacuna Magazine.
A Trump victory would signal that the resurgence of global neo-fascisms that the world has experienced since 2016 (from Washington D.C. to Buenos Aires, to London, Moscow, New Delhi, and beyond) has not yet run its course. I would expect a Trump victory to embolden Canadian Conservatives to embrace ever more extreme rhetoric and policies on a whole raft of issues from immigration to education, to healthcare, and to climate changePhilip Kaisary, culture writer, Lacuna Magazine
Canadian media and political pundits can’t help but draw comparisons between a potential Republican sweep and the rise of the Conservative Party in Canada. The timing of it all being the most critical as Canada remains in election mode with Justin Trudeau’s minority government fighting to remain in power against the backdrop of a significant election south of the border probably set to cast influence over the fast-approaching Canadian version in 2025.
Melissa Haussman, Professor of Political Science at Carleton University, told Yahoo News Canada that a Trump victory could set the tone for undecided voters in Canada.
He was never particularly reasonable towards Canada and I would expect that to continue. It’s really hard to predict what could happen in 2025 since we’re only in 2024, but in theory if Trump won it could make some Canadians swing to the right and vote for Poilievre.Melissa Haussman, Professor of Political Science, Carleton University
Another Carleton University politics professor, Peter Hodgins, reveals the dangers of Trump-style politics, which are already echoing across the leadership of Canadian provinces.
“A Trump victory would further add support to a deeply antagonistic style of politics practiced not just by Poilievre but by the premiers of three of Canada’s largest provinces—Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta,” Hodgins told Yahoo News Canada.
The Trumpian politics, Hodgins believes, has given birth to a “new mapping” which redefines the values of Canadian society, moving away from honouring the diversity in citizens and their varying opinions.
In this new mapping, the social world is reduced to two warring and completely incommensurate camps: those whose “ways of life” are being threatened and there are the ‘enemies within’ and ‘without’ who threaten those ways of life.Peter Hodgins, Associate Professor of Politics, Carleton University
“As we have seen in those provinces and in the discourse of the federal Conservatives, the role of Trumpian political leaders is to keep potential enemies out through the propagation of xenophobic immigration policies and to use the levers of power to force those ‘enemies’ already within the country such as trans people, environmentalists, health scientists, people with (and the institutions of) post-secondary education…to ‘get back into place’.”
In Canada, similar threads have surfaced “in the cases of Alberta’s recent anti-trans legislation, Doug Ford’s puzzling war on cyclists, or the Quebec government’s war on English-speakers and non-white immigrants…,” Hodgins said.
On the contrary, U.S. foreign policy expert Aaron Ettinger believes that while a Trump win won’t influence the results of Canada’s looming election, it might, instead, give Prime Minister Justin Trudeau an argument against the visible “Trudeau fatigue” Canadians are experiencing after nine years of his power.
“A Trump victory would give Trudeau a potent argument: that he’s stood up to Trump before and can do it again. Canada wouldn’t want the neophyte Poilievre going up against a shark,” Ettinger told Yahoo News Canada.
