This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

We’re less than two weeks removed from Donald Trump’s second presidential election win, and investors, economists, and citizens alike are still trying to figure out what it all means.

Stocks, which surged following the election, have given up almost all of those gains.

For economists, the equivalent action to the stock market’s decisively indecisive action is to simply widen the aperture.

“We want to emphasize that there is massive uncertainty around which policies will be prioritized, and the timing and extent of policy changes,” Bank of America economists led by Aditya Bhave and Stephen Juneau wrote in a note to clients this week.

“Therefore, the error bands around our forecasts are also unusually large,” they added.

As our Chart of the Week shows, the firm’s base case for 2025 shows continued quarters of 2% GDP growth, a respectable outlook by any measure.

But, as BofA’s team pointed out, “Our base case is sanguine, but our conviction is low.” They added, “There are plausible scenarios in which growth could run above 3%, or the economy could enter a recession.”

As analyst after analyst has noted, many of Trump’s promised or proposed policies would be anti-growth and inflationary — possibly provoking bond vigilantes and even putting the economy into recession.

On the other hand, some or all of these economic fears may be counterbalanced by a pro-growth administration giving the CEOs exactly what they’re asking for.

All this uncertainty, in addition to manifesting in the broader stock market’s surge and retreat, is being reflected in individual sectors and companies as news of prospective nominees to various high-level government positions from the president-elect reverberates — most recently hammering vaccine makers to government contractors.

To quote one executive, BMW’s CEO and chair Oliver Zipse, the big question for investors and businesses will be whether (and how much of) Trump’s promises are real or merely “verbal issues.”

As Bank of America phrases it, “the only certainty is change.”

With a wide range of outcomes.

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