The Indianapolis Colts had to win on Sunday. Not just for the obvious ramifications of this season. But because losing brought up the old questions with their quarterback they’ve been trying to outrun.
The Colts were practically playing for their playoff lives at the Denver Broncos. The defense was excellent. They allowed 193 yards, picked off Broncos quarterback Bo Nix three times and allowed 2.7 yards per rush. Over the last five seasons, defenses hitting those marks had a 24-3 record according to Stathead. It’s 24-4 after Sunday.
The Colts didn’t just lose, they lost by 18 points. Jonathan Taylor dropped the ball before he scored, and that’s what everyone talked about. Broncos defensive end Nik Bonitto made a great play to pick off a lateral on a trick play and returned it for a touchdown. But a big reason for the loss was a familiar one: Anthony Richardson wasn’t good enough.
Richardson completed 17 of 38 for 172 yards, and that’s misleading. On a final drive in garbage time, he was 6 of 9 for 53 yards. Remove that and it’s 11 of 29 for 119 yards. He didn’t get his 10th completion or 100 yards until the fourth quarter. He missed several throws that a starting NFL quarterback has to complete.
The Colts benched Richardson earlier this season and he had a good game against the New York Jets upon his return. Then came three performances that looked just like the games that led to him being benched, with too many missed passes stalling Colts drives.
Sunday’s loss wasn’t just about this season, and practically ending the Colts’ playoff hopes. It’s about a sobering question: Can the Colts expect anything better in 2025?
For teams that are picking early in the 2025 NFL Draft and will inevitably draft a quarterback because they need one, they understand the reality of what they’re getting into. Drafting a quarterback in the top five is a multi-year commitment. That is changing, with teams hitting the eject button earlier than they had in the past. But for the most part, you’re not dating anymore when you take a quarterback in the top five. You’re getting married. But when you don’t have endless job security, you have to gamble and hope.
Richardson was the fourth pick of last year’s draft, and it was one of the riskiest picks in recent memory. Richardson started just 13 games in college. He completed 54.7% of his passes. The reasons for picking him were obvious. His physical profile is unlike practically any other quarterback in NFL history.
Looking back, the Colts got blinded by the potential.
“I didn’t want to look up and watch him be a superstar somewhere else,” Ballard said in a team documentary about the draft. “If he’s gonna be a superstar, he’s gonna be a superstar for the Colts.”
FOMO usually isn’t a good reason for taking someone fourth overall.
Richardson is completing 47% of his passes this season. Richardson’s CPOE, which stands for “completion percentage over expected” and measures various factors to determine how likely a pass is to be completed, is a league-worst -11.1 according to rbsdm.com. Only one other quarterback is worse than -2.3 (Dallas’ replacement starter Cooper Rush, at 9.6). Before Richardson was benched, he had a completion percentage of 44.4%. In his last three games, his completion percentage is 44.4%. Completion percentage isn’t a perfect stat, especially when we consider how often Richardson throws downfield, but we all know it’s hard for an NFL offense to function when it’s not completing half of its passes. And Richardson’s dreadful CPOE, which takes into account many of the other factors, is telling.
There are plenty of other stats that can prove Richardson isn’t playing well enough. Richardson will presumably be the Colts’ quarterback again in 2025 — it’s too soon for a divorce from this marriage — but there has to be a ton of improvement just to get to a reasonable level.
Josh Allen is going to lead to a lot of overly optimistic draft picks. The Buffalo Bills star is on his way to his first MVP, and he’s the patron saint of inaccurate quarterbacks becoming accurate.
It seems silly now that Allen fell all the way to seventh overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, but the reasons were sound. He wasn’t great at Wyoming, completing 56.2% of his passes there and was only honorable mention all-Mountain West his final season there. He completed 56.3% of his passes through two NFL seasons. Then he suddenly got way better and this season he has been the best QB in football. That’s the story every hopeful general manager will talk himself into when he drafts a raw but exciting prospect. It’s more likely Allen will just remain a historic outlier.
It’s what gives the Colts and Richardson hope. Richardson hasn’t played much, so theoretically he can improve like Allen did. Allen got the right coaching with then-Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and put in a ton of work to improve his accuracy. Richardson will never be a QB challenging a 70% completion rate, nor does anyone expect him to be that. He’s a deep passer, almost from another era. He can be successful as a QB with a lower percentage than almost everyone else. But it can’t be 12% lower than the second-worst QB, which is the case this season.
Since 1988, here are the quarterbacks with 250 pass attempts and a completion percentage of 47% or worse: Heath Shuler, Craig Whelihan, Akili Smith, Tim Tebow and Richardson. It has been 14 seasons since a QB with 250 attempts had a worse passer rating than the 60.1 Richardson is posting to this point. That was Jimmy Clausen in 2010. Even those who want to defend Richardson and blame the offensive scheme or dismiss his inefficiency due to his style have to admit that it needs to get a lot better. It needs to get a lot better just for Richardson to be at a reasonable level. That needs to happen before dreaming of the superstar level that Ballard was fantasizing about on draft night.
Richardson will keep getting chances. Indianapolis will work with him and likely adjust the offense to fit what he does well. The Colts will hope that everything comes together quickly, like it did with Allen. It’s not like they can turn back now.
