A looming tariff battle between the United States and Canada could be a factor in a long-rumoured early Ontario election, some political experts say, suggesting the fight may give Premier Doug Ford a reason to call a snap vote.
Speculation has been swirling at Queen’s Park for months that the Progressive Conservative government is preparing for an election a year ahead of the next fixed vote date in June 2026.
And that talk has only ramped up in recent weeks, as the legislature adjourns for the winter break and economic storm clouds gather on the horizon.
Earlier this week, a solemn Ford stood at a podium outside of his office at Queen’s Park, issuing a dire warning about U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s threats to apply a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican goods.
“We need to be ready,” Ford said. “We need to be ready to fight. This fight is coming 100 per cent on January the 20th or January 21st.”
Ford has been a vocal critic of Trump’s plan and in recent days has advocated for an aggressive push back against the incoming president, including retaliatory tariffs and cutting off electricity exports to some states.
The brewing trade battle might just give Ford and his Tories the reason they’re looking for to spark an early election, positioning the premier as the right leader to fight Trump, said Shakir Chambers, a conservative strategist and vice president with the Oyster Group.
“I think if the premier was looking for a rationale for an election, the Trump tariff threat gives him a rationale,” he said.
“You need a fresh mandate with tariffs staring down the province.”
WATCH | Ford’s response to tariff threats:
Trump’s proposed tariffs will have devastating effects on the province’s economy, which could also be a motivating factor, said Charles Bird, principal at Earnscliffe Strategies.
“Ford has come out swinging … and this is likely going to play well with voters in the short term,” said Bird, who is a Liberal strategist.
“If anything, the possible imposition of tariffs will increase the likelihood of the premier calling an early election,” he said.
“As much as possible, Ford and the Conservatives will want to get out ahead of the potential economic fallout.”
Focus on Trump helps Ford shift spotlight: Wright
A focus on Trump and the trade battle also shifts the spotlight away from problems at home that Ford would rather not talk about, said Kim Wright, principal at Wright Strategies.
The premier has a six-year record in office to defend, including his handling of hallway health care, the growing homelessness problem across Ontario and the affordability crisis, she said.
“Those are the problems that the premier is going to have to face, and he’s going to want to talk about everything but those,” said Wright, who is an NDP strategist.
Election rumours have been swirling since last spring, when Ford refused to rule out going to the polls ahead of June 2026. Since then, all of the major parties in Ontario’s legislature have been nominating candidates and fundraising for a potential vote.
Ford has not given any recent indication of calling a snap election, but there are a number of factors outside of the tariff fight that could make going to the polls now more favourable than waiting a year, Chambers said.
At the top of that list is when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government face voters in a election. The federal Liberals are running a distant second to the federal Conservative Party and absorbing public anger over affordability issues and the carbon tax. Trudeau’s low personal approvals are also hurting the Ontario Liberal Party, Chambers said.
“I think more so than tariffs, it’s about, when does Trudeau go to an election? You want to beat them to the ballot box,” he said. “Because you can still benefit from the (federal) Liberal brand depressing (Ontario Liberal Leader) Bonnie Crombie’s numbers.”
Greenbelt investigation looms for Ford government
The spectre of the RCMP criminal investigation into the Ford government’s plan to open up the Greenbelt for development also looms large, Chambers said. It’s not clear when the results of that probe could be made public, but he said they could be politically damaging.
“I’m not sure how much that’s going to have an impact, but it does fit into a narrative that Ford doesn’t want to have that stain around him,” Chambers said.
Wright said broader concerns about Ontario’s economy including rising unemployment and housing affordability could emerge as driving issues in any potential provincial election. And as the incumbent, Ford will bear some of the blame. For that reason, calling an early vote could be a gamble, she said.
“There’s a difference between political swagger and political hubris,” she said. “When there are trying times voters have said, ‘No, we’re not for the hubris. We want people who are leading in times that are difficult for us and our families.'”
WATCH | Experts weigh in on possible early election call:
Ford’s team is full of experienced political strategists who are trying to weigh all of these factors, Bird said. And while he thinks they will call an early election, he acknowledges that they may yet decide that it’s not worth the risk.
Anything can happen during an election and campaigns matter, Bird said.
“They will go into this eyes wide open and they will recognize that there are inherent risks and dangers to going at any time, let alone more than a year before a scheduled vote,” he said.
“It’ll be interesting to see if the opposition parties are able to make hay with that and whether they are effective in labelling the premier and his team as being opportunistic.”
