By Lewis Jones, Football Journalist
It’s knockout football from now on at Euro 2024 and our football betting expert Jones Knows unleashes his insight and predictions on the action.
I’ve been disappointed with both teams so far but the tournament could just start here for both. They are hard to read.
What is glaringly obvious though is that Belgium’s back four, especially Wout Faes and Jan Vertonghen, are going to struggle to handle Kylian Mbappe. That could be the decisive factor.
If somehow Belgium are going to progress then they’ll have to rely on some variance with France’s finishing and hope that Kevin De Bruyne remains in the form we’ve seen from him in this tournament.
He’s been the heartbeat, playing as a roaming no.10. This type of big occasion is made for players of his ilk and it’s his shot on target prices that standout here. The 10/11 with Sky Bet for him to register an effort on target looks big considering how involved he is in the final third and that he’s already had five shots on target at the tournament.
Forget Cristiano Ronaldo. The main man for Portugal is Bruno Fernandes.
Once Roberto Martinez figures that out, the better Portugal will be for it. Ronaldo has now scored just one non-penalty goal in his last 11 matches for Portugal at major international tournaments and his presence is becoming a problem and a sideshow.
Meanwhile, Fernandes is in the prime of his career now and showed in qualifying that he’s the key to Portugal delivering on the big stage. He grabbed 14 goal contributions and found the net in one of his two starts in the group stages. I’m expecting him to kick on in the knockout stages, starting with what looks a real one-sided contest with Slovenia. The 11/4 with Sky Bet for Fernandes to score in a Portugal win looks a nice price.
For someone who has got 11 assists in his last 22 starts for his country, Denzel Dumfries is being grossly underrated by the Sky Bet markets.
When you factor in how heavily fancied Netherlands are and their expected goals return is to score over two goals, the 9/2 on Dumfries assisting a goal really does appeal. Those odds imply a probability of about 18 per cent, I’d have it closer to 30 per cent based on the data and how dangerous Dumfries is down the Netherlands’ right flank.
The next two weeks should be an exciting ride for punters like me who backed Austria pre-tournament. The 80/1 shots are now 16/1. Not only have Ralf Rangnick’s side showed themselves to be a force, they’ve also landed in the weaker half of the draw after playing no-fear football that saw them top the group.
A collision course with Turkey here could just be the game of tournament. It’s shaping up to be beautiful chaos.
Austria will press hard and fast while Turkey are full of outstanding and exciting individual players in attack that are allowed to express themselves. To the backdrop of this there are two defences that are liable to make mistakes. It just screams goals and cards.
Keeping the over cards lines on your side should prove a profitable call in the knockout rounds. Since Euro 1996 in the knockouts, the average cards per 90-minute stands at a whopping 4.76 and in last 16 matches of the last two Euros, 13 of 16 games saw over 3.5 cards land. If you combine over 2.5 goals here with 40+ booking points using the Bet Builder, you can conjure up a 6/4 shot with Sky Bet.
