By Lewis Jones, Football Journalist
It’s knockout football from now on at Euro 2024 and our football betting expert Jones Knows unleashes his insight and predictions on the action.
For someone who has got 11 assists in his last 22 starts for his country, Denzel Dumfries is being grossly underrated by the Sky Bet markets.
When you factor in how heavily fancied Netherlands are and their expected goals return is to score over two goals, the 9/2 on Dumfries assisting a goal really does appeal. Those odds imply a probability of about 18 per cent, I’d have it closer to 30 per cent based on the data and how dangerous Dumfries is down the Netherlands’ right flank.
The next two weeks should be an exciting ride for punters like me who backed Austria pre-tournament. The 80/1 shots are now 16/1. Not only have Ralf Rangnick’s side showed themselves to be a force, they’ve also landed in the weaker half of the draw after playing no-fear football that saw them top the group.
A collision course with Turkey here could just be the game of tournament. It’s shaping up to be beautiful chaos.
Austria will press hard and fast while Turkey are full of outstanding and exciting individual players in attack that are allowed to express themselves. To the backdrop of this there are two defences that are liable to make mistakes. It just screams goals and cards.
Keeping the over cards lines on your side should prove a profitable call in the knockout rounds. Since Euro 1996 in the knockouts, the average cards per 90-minute stands at a whopping 4.76 and in last 16 matches of the last two Euros, 13 of 16 games saw over 3.5 cards land. If you combine over 2.5 goals here with 40+ booking points using the Bet Builder, you can conjure up a 6/4 shot with Sky Bet.
