Anthony Edwards is pacing to be the new face of the NBA. Is he ready to take the mantle? That’s up for debate — especially with LeBron James and Stephen Curry having such a stronghold over the league. Still, Edwards is just 23 years old and destined for superstardom.
Is that aura enough to take him in the first round of fantasy basketball drafts? Let’s discuss.
Why not invest in one of the league’s most exciting and entertaining players? Between the epic highlight reels, comedic outtakes and never shying away from the smoke, Ant-man is an ascending star whose breakout has yet to reach his peak.
The two-time All-Star led the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals in his fourth season at just 22 years old. Edwards joined Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady as the only shooting guards in NBA history to average at least 25-5-5 before turning 23. That’s some esteemed company. In addition to posting career-bests in points per game, Edwards shot 46% from the field and 83% from the line with 1.8 stocks.
Seeing his player efficiency rating (PER) rising yearly with a top–10 usage rate is also encouraging. Is his PER elite? No. But again, betting on Edwards this season is betting on him taking another step forward. Averaging 28-6-5 with an increase in stocks is both reasonable and attainable. That’s essentially the leap Donovan Mitchell made to get into the first round last season (with a ridiculous jump in steals per game).
For all the discussion around aura this offseason, Jayson Tatum is perennially a top-12 pick in fantasy despite finishing in the top 12 once in his seven-year career. That’s not intended to be a dig against Tatum, but fantasy managers continually take him in the first round when, statistically, he’s a better rebounding version of Ant. Much of the arguments around Tatum going that high is because of his high floor and durability. Ant’s played 70-plus games since his rookie campaign. The gap isn’t that wide, so to say it’s wild to consider Edwards a first-round value, it’s not.
Buying into the Edwards hype train isn’t a sound business decision. On the court, he has a similar vibe as Ja Morant — must-see TV whenever the ball touches his hands. It’s why the Timberwolves have the largest increase in nationally televised games this season. However, none of that awe and allure gets you fantasy points.
Edwards’ best finish in category leagues is 37th, so he obviously has some work to do to reach first-round status. While he grades out as above average in at least five categories, he’s elite in just one area — scoring. If Edwards can increase his efficiency and stock production, that’s the quickest path to being a top-12 player. While I won’t rule it out, there is no shortage of players from picks 13-25 in my latest ranks who could match or outperform Edwards’ production.
A better case can be made for Edwards being a first-rounder in points leagues because if you’re like me and anticipate a bump in a few areas, you don’t have to worry about the inefficiencies that could come with it. If you’re considering drafting Edwards in the first round of category formats, it is not without risk. But the upside is that you’d be calling your shot on a potential MVP candidate who is entering the age where superstars are made.
I have Edwards listed as a mid-second-round pick in both category and points leagues so I won’t be reaching in the first round to get him. But don’t be surprised if he creeps closer to an early second rounder in my ranks by draft season.
