I mentioned in the Week 3 article that as we progress further into the fantasy football season, our “make or break” options will get spicier. We’re all looking for that Jauan Jennings-type of magical start that carries us to victory, and to make those bold starts, we have to make difficult choices with our traditional starters.
With key injuries piling up and offensive inconsistencies across the league, this week is shaping up to be one where even the most promising matchups could leave fantasy managers frustrated. Which players will elevate your lineup or leave you scrambling for points?
Odunze is coming off the best performance of his young career, finishing as the WR7 in half-PPR with six receptions on 11 targets for 112 receiving yards and one touchdown. Despite all of these positives, the question remains — is this a blip, or is Odunze as a must-start?
There are a few things we need to contextualize about this dramatic spike in Odunze’s production. Caleb Williams threw the ball 52 times in Week 3 — volume that’s unrealistic to expect on an every-week basis. Also, the Week 3 matchup was against Indianapolis, a defense that has struggled early this season. On top of that, the Bears were without Keenan Allen, and his return will inevitably affect the target share. The reality is that we’re expecting more volatility from Odunze moving forward.
Despite the obvious concerns, Odunze remains a strong flex option in favorable matchups, and that’s really the key in this week’s evaluation. Odunze faces a Rams’ defense that has been vulnerable through the air. In particular, we should look at the Rams’ defensive matchups in Weeks 1 and 3, where the WR2s on opposing teams had notable performances — Jameson Williams and Jauan Jennings.
If the trend continues and this matchup favors the WR2 again, Odunze could be in line for another huge performance. Playing Odunze is not without risk. Chicago’s offense continues to struggle, and Allen’s possible return could impact Odunze’s targets. Still, Odunze has the potential to be a strong contributor to your lineup this week.
Dobbins has shot up rankings, boasting a top-20 consensus ranking, but Dobbins is a potentially risky play in Week 4 due to matchup and team circumstances. Justin Herbert is dealing with an injury, which creates a multi-faceted issue for the Chargers.
If Herbert is out or has limitations, the Chargers must lean heavily on the ground game, potentially boosting Dobbins’ volume. However, while the volume would favor Dobbins, he’d likely suffer in efficiency and goal-line opportunities. To make matters even worse, the matchup is an absolute nightmare against a Kansas City defense that has shut down running backs all season.
Dobbins is a tough call this week. The uncertainty around Herbert makes this one of the more ambiguous start/sit decisions. Dobbins’ history suggests he could be worth the risk, but you should tread lightly in such a volatile situation. The Chiefs didn’t let Derrick Henry or Bijan Robinson get anything going, holding both to under 50 rushing yards. Dobbins’ production could be a major issue this week.
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Because we didn’t know the status of Walker at the time of this article release, I’m cheating and listing both Seattle backs.
Starting whoever leads the Seattle backfield seems like a no-brainer. Seattle’s output at running back has been excellent. In Week 1, Walker had over 100 yards and a rushing touchdown. In Week 2, with Walker out, Charbonnet finished as the RB12 in half-PPR. In Week 3, Charbonnet thrived with 18 carries for 91 yards and two rushing touchdowns, finishing as the RB6.
However, this week’s matchup against Detroit is a major problem. Detroit has been solid across the board, but they’ve completely shut down running backs, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to the position while facing top fantasy producers like Kyren Williams and James Conner. They’re allowing an average of just 2.76 yards per carry to running backs. Quite frankly, there isn’t a worse fantasy matchup out there. We’re faced with an incredibly difficult situation of starting running backs in an ambiguous health situation with a horrific matchup.
I recognize that some of you can’t afford to sit them, but this could be a no-win scenario because of Walker’s potential return this week. While Walker would be expected to resume the lead role, the Seahawks would likely limit his carries in his initial return. This could lead to a split backfield in the worst possible matchup, making any Seattle running back a potential bust for the week. Again, with running back injuries across the league, you may not have the luxury of benching either player, but if you can, it’s wise to err on the side of caution with these risky backs.
With Isaiah Pacheco out, Steele was the Chiefs’ lead back, and the result was positive overall, considering it was the undrafted rookie’s first start. Steele had 17 carries for 72 yards, averaging a solid 4.2 yards per carry.
Unfortunately, as expected, he wasn’t involved in the passing game. So despite the healthy number of carries, he had just under eight fantasy points in half-PPR, finishing as the RB32. While the fantasy output wasn’t special, there are some positives. Steele out-snapped Samaje Perine significantly, and if goal-line opportunities arise, Steele would likely be the favorite for those touches. The snap count alone moves him up into high-end RB3, borderline RB2 territory.
Kansas City faces the Chargers this week. It’s tough to fully assess the Chargers’ defense, given that their opponents have been the Raiders, the Panthers (Bryce Young’s Version), and the Steelers — all offenses with limitations. Additionally, there’s the potential involvement of Kareem Hunt to consider.
While Hunt isn’t someone I’d throw into a fantasy football lineup, his presence could further limit Steele’s upside, which is already limited by the lack of receptions. I’m extremely wary of using Steele this week and another sub-10 fantasy point output is the likely outcome.
Ford started the season with decent fantasy output in Week 1, appearing to be the clear RB1. However, in Week 2, Ford saw a puzzling dip in touches, carrying the ball just seven times for 64 yards, while D’Onta Foreman had 14 carries for 44 yards.
The touches flipped back in favor of Ford in Week 3, but once again, the output was disappointing, with just 8.5 fantasy points in half PPR. This week, Ford faces a dream matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank in the bottom 10 for fantasy points allowed to running backs.
On paper, this should be a “full go” situation for Ford, but the reality is we can’t trust the Cleveland offense. We can’t even be sure Ford will consistently lead the team in carries. To make matters worse, Ford missed practice on Wednesday with a knee injury.
While this matchup looks like the perfect opportunity for Ford to have a much-needed boom performance, there’s a strong chance he could deliver another sub-10 fantasy point game. It’s a wild scenario where, despite the favorable matchup, Ford could end up breaking your lineup.
